It is no secret that I am less upset with our current administration than most fans. I also should not appear delusional to them being on the hottest of seats. I was surprised that Ballard was retained at the end of each of the last two years. Not upset, but definitely surprised. When I go back and look at bad decisions, I see coaching failures before I see personnel failures. I don’t blame him for dropping a pass that would have sent the Colts to the playoffs, or for dropping a ball prior to crossing
the endzone, which could have effected our record. In short, I don’t blame him for fading down the stretch or for in game adjustments, except in that he was the guy who hired the guy to avoid those shortcomings.
So, I have no qualms with showing him the door at the end of the year, or even during the year, if he has been proven to have chosen unwisely in his assembly of this season’s Colts. We saw a departure from the norm during last year’s free-agency when he selected a couple of day one players. He drafted a little differently as well, without the apparent emphasis on RAR score. He also took that big swing at the trade deadline, when it looked like the playoffs were inevitable. This season, he has been receptive to extending contracts to move money to the future. All of these moves resemble those of a man feeling the affects of that hot seat.
This year has seen more of a return to previous year’s, as we prioritized signing a couple of our most valuable assets. Unlike previous years, we let a fair amount of longer tenured Colts walk away, or we traded them. This seems to be largely based on the quote that we needed to be younger and fast on the defensive front 7. That traded number could rise, should we find a home for Moore or AR, or both. We continued to make the lower end signings like Key, Britt-Taylor, Westbrook, Davis-Gaither, Clemons, among other even lesser signings. We have become more familiar with the term “Void Years”, than we ever have in the past.
There are still three avenues for roster construction. The draft, trades and those who are free agents now or might be once cuts occur. The option at our doorstep is the draft. I don’t think anyone would look historically and accuse CB of reading from the consensus big boards when making a selection. Sometimes we accuse him of trying to prove himself smarter than the masses with his picks. Even last year, in a year when we thought his job was on the line, he went with Walley, who was quickly considered an over draft. Can he afford to do that this year?
The thought process might be to take one of Mel’s “Next Best Available”, so that he doesn’t take a hit if the pick doesn’t pan out. After all, didn’t’ everyone agree that the player was the best choice? If Jacob Rodriguez is there at 47, does he have the courage (that was the 4th word I thought of, but first that I thought I could print) to say he likes Elarms-Orr better? Or can he say that getting two players a bit later would be the better play and trade the pick? The bottom line is that no matter how he misses, he will lose his job if we are not playoff bound.
He’s already picked up a basketball player and a guy that has been retired for four years, so would he take on an experiment that someone else might have to deal with, or would he even be allowed to? I can see Carlie raising that eyebrow in response to the suggestion that the chosen player may not be ready to go until November. Is he confident enough in his body of work to continue to do things his way? He could believe that being true to his process is better for his future, even if it is not with the Colts.
Will he consider player age? Players who are up in that 24ish age group, sometimes are devalued because a draft choice is a long term commitment. I personally would not hold age against Akheem Mesidor or Cashius Howell, should they happen to slide. I think I’d take a page out of IU’s playbook and welcome the more seasoned player, as we need some immediate contributions from our day 2 picks. We of course hope for contributions from most of them, but we need a couple of players to start in week 1.
I think Ballard has changed his process some, but is still the same GM that he has always been. He stayed true to his “Bargain Ballard” moniker with some deft signings. Key replaces the actual (statistically) worst pass rusher in the league and will do it for 8 million per year. He matched Paye’s sack and pressure stats in far few snaps last year. Wooden is also going to be a meaningful addition. We’ve seen what happens when Buck and Grove are not on the field and it is usually not pretty. I also feel confident in saying that Taylor-Britt and Davis Gaither will play a lot of football for the Colts.
Given all of that, I believe he will still be drafting for the long term success of the team. He will trust his staff and ultimately himself when taking the card to the podium. I honestly do not think he will be as urgent to address the needs at LB and DE as we fans are. If he has a crush, he will act on it. He’s been hearing calls for his head for three or four years, so I can’t see him bowing to fan pressure now. He’s also hinted at staying true to his tactics by trading down and we should probably take him at his word on that.
So yes, the possibility exists that we see a LB slide to us at 47, which we have been mocking to ourselves for a month, only see us announce that we have moved back and taken a different LB or a position that fans deem less critical. If he does, I’ll trust that he has a plan. He’ll need one, because only being successful on the field will matter for him and his staff this year. I would be unable to support seeing him sign another contract baring anything but finishing off the kind of season that the Colts had started last year.
I’m reminded of a line from Almost Famous. As the lead guitarist says to the writer about the Rolling Stone article that he is working on “Just make us look cool”. My advice for CB is “Just be right”.
