Now that we have had some time to digest Oregon’s victory over Texas Tech in the orange bowl which could be argued as one of the biggest wins for the team in the last decade, based on the nature of the game
being a winner take all playoff game, I wanted to take a deeper dive into the numbers of the game and how it played out. I wanted to take an objective look into the game now that we have had a couple of days to bask in the glory of winning a quarterfinal playoff game.
Objectively speaking, I think the best way to characterize this game was that Oregon was the better team full stop. But it was closer than the scoreboard indicated because both defenses played excellently. Here are the rate statistics for the game.
- Net Succes Rate: Oregon +6.4%
- Net Explosive Rate: Oregon -1.48%
- Net Yards Per Play: Oregon +0.39 Yards per play
And when you look at the stats, both rushing and passing for each team, both defenses played at a championship caliber in all 4 quadrants. This surprised me a little bit as to me it felt like while the Tech defense did acquit itself very well, Oregon was clearly the better team. The above numbers would indicate that Oregon was only slightly better.
So how does a game that, based on charted statistics, likely suggested a one-score contest turn into a 23–0 Oregon win—one with a 90.2% postgame win expectancy (per Bill Connelly), a 9.8 expected margin (also per Connelly), and an overall feel that was far more convincing than the numbers initially implied?
The answer is simple: turnovers. When a team wins the turnover battle 4–1, it is going to win the football game the vast majority of the time.
While creating/limiting opportunities for turnovers is a matter of skill getting the turnovers can be random so let’s break down the turnover battle a little more.
Fumbles
There were 4 fumbles forced in this game. Oregon forced 2 and Texas Tech forced 2. All 4 were recovered by Oregon which would indicate Oregon got lucky on paper. However actually using our eyes to watch the fumbles here is what happened with each one.
- Dante Moore fumbled the ball on a botched QB-RB exchange
- This was less of a fumble forced by the Tech defense and more of an unforced fumble by the Duck Offence
- Bryce Boetcher forced Cameron Dickey to fumble late in the 2nd
- Oregon was fortunate to be the team that bounced on the ball
- Matayo Uiagalelei strip sacked Behren Morton and simply took the ball away from him
- Since the ball never hit the ground that pretty much reduces any luck with the recovery of this fumble
- 3 seconds later Matayo fumbled the ball himself when he was being tackled attempting to strip and score
- He then immediately recovered his own fumble
So yes, on paper there were 4 fumbles “forced” in this game and Oregon recovered all 4 which is incredibly fortunate. However, of the 4 only 2 fumbles were truly forced by defensive players, two Oregon defensive players at that. So, while it is still lucky to force and recover 2 fumbles it isn’t extremely lucky.
Interceptions
Determining the amount of luck vs skill involved in generating interceptions is a little more complicated than expecting 50% of fumbles to be recovered. If you would like PFF attempted to explain this. The oversimplified method is to say that X% of (INT’s + Pass Deflections (PD)) result in INTs. I never loved this way of looking at INT luck for two reasons and Brandon Finney illustrated both quite well.
- I think a more highly skilled DB will intercept more interceptable balls than an average DB
- Not all deflectable balls/interceptable balls are created equal
For the purposes of this article though let’s assume that we should expect teams to intercept interceptable balls (INTs + PDs) at an equal rate. In the Orange Bowl Behren Morton threw 6 interceptable balls (2 INTs + 4 registered PDs) meaning Oregon had a 33% interception rate. Dante Moore threw 5 interceptable balls (1 INT + 4 registered PDs) meaning Tech had a 20% interception rate.
On paper this would indicate Oregon again was fortunate, which they probably were to a small extent. But for the two reasons I identified above, and Brandon Finney so kindly demonstrated, I think that reduces some of the luck involved. Additionally, when you factor in that the pick Dante Moore threw was on a 4th down and the was nearly returned to the line of scrimmage the result of that play was nearly identical had the pass been picked off or deflected which significantly reduces the magnitude of the turnover on the result of the game. Essentially this was and felt like a turnover on downs which aren’t included as official turnovers.
What does this all mean
While the scoreboard may indicate that this was a blowout, and charting statistics indicate this was a close game where Oregon was only slightly better. I think based on the nature of the turnovers in this game the truth lies somewhere in between. Oregon was clearly the better team but a poor offensive showing prevented this from being a true dominant showing. When I look back on this game going forward I’ll kind of think of it as a close game wrapped up in a blowout.
Why does it matter
Next up Oregon will play a defense just as strong as Texas Tech’s but instead of playing against an Offence led by Behren Morton they face an offence led by the Heisman winner and potential number 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. If I hadn’t watched the Orange Bowl and you told me Oregon had defeated Texas Tech by 23 points I would probably have thought if they replicated that performance, they have a great opportunity to beat Indiana. However, I did watch the Orange Bowl, and I don’t think it is at all controversial to say that if Oregon replicates that offensive performance against Indiana their season will very likely come to an end in the Peach Bowl.
Thus far this season Oregon’s offence has played two games against truly elite defenses and they have one touchdown drive longer than 30 yards, if Oregon is going to win the Peach Bowl, we will need to see a performance from the offense that we have not seen all year.
In my opinion the win over Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl and reaching the semi-finals absolutely makes this Duck season a success so from that big-picture perspective it was a very encouraging game. However, the manner in which the Orange Bowl transpired re-affirmed my concerns regarding the offence against truly elite defense. From that perspective it was a concerning game as it relates to this playoff run the Ducks currently are on.
