Two weeks ago the White Sox came to Kansas City and I wrote it was “must-win time.” The Royals swept the White Sox, kicking off a very successful 8-2 homestand that saw the team climb the standings. But they are still on the outside looking in at a Wild Card spot, and will need every win they can get. A road series win in Chicago is essential at this point in the season with the Royals needing an extended hot streak to get into a post-season spot.
Kansas City Royals (67-64) vs. Chicago White Sox (47-83)
at Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Royals: 3.86 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 3.89 runs allowed/game (4th)
White Sox: 3.94 runs scored/game (26th), 4.49 runs allowed/game (20th)
After leaving Kansas City, the White Sox scored 45 runs over their next six games.
Kyle Teel has been on a tear, hitting .347/.429/.510 over his last 14 games. Fellow catcher Edgar Quero is hitting .343/.370/.471 over his last 19 games. Colson Montgomery has hit 8 of his 13 home runs at home. He also makes contact just 69.3 percent of the time. Mike Tauchman has a reverse split, batting .245/.383/.469 against lefties. He’s hitting .306 with runners in scoring position this year.
Brooks Baldwin is hitting just .182/.213/.295 at home this year. Michael A. Taylor is hitless over his last 13 plate appearances and is hitting .186 over his last 26 games. Chase Meidroth has a 51.9 percent groundball rate. Miguel Vargas has a 52.1 percent flyball rate. Andrew Benintendi pulls the ball 49.3 percent of the time.
The White Sox are a below-average defensive club. Luis Robert Jr. has played well in center, but utility player Brooks Baldwin has struggled in the outfield. White Sox catchers have thrown out just 19 percent of baserunners. The White Sox steal bases at a 79 percent success rate.
Shane Smith gave up four runs in six innings in a loss his last time out against the Braves, and has not gone more than six innings in a start this year. He gave up two runs in five innings in a loss to the Royals back in May. Righties are hitting just .220/.323/.314 against him. Opponents are hitting just .185 aginst his change up with a 32.4 percent whiff rate.
Martín Pérez has given up just one earned run in 8.2 innings in his two starts back since returning from a flexor strain injury. He has a career 4.58 ERA in 13 starts against the Royals. Randall Grichuk is a career 7-for-22 (.318) against him. Pérez can’t break 90 mph on the radar gun, relying heavily on a cutter, sinker, change up, and curve.
Aaron Civale has given up 16 runs in 14.1 innings over his last three starts. He has a career 3.31 ERA in 11 starts against the Royals. He has been much worse at home this year with a 6.38 ERA opposed to 3.97 on the road. Opponents are hitting .295 against his sinker this year. Salvador Perez is a career 6-for-19 (.316) hitter with two home runs against him.
The White Sox bullpen has a decent 3.97 ERA, but with the fifth-highest walk rate. They have the fewest saves in baseball at just 17. Rule 5 pick Mike Vasil has the ninth-lowest ERA among qualified relievers. Steven Wilson has a 51.5 percent flyball rate, tenth-highest in baseball. Jordan Leasure has a 26.9 percent pop-up rate, highest among relievers. Brandon Eisert has a 2.60 ERA over his last 17 outings.
The Royals have won eight of ten against the White Sox this year, not quite as good as the 12-1 record they had against them last year. But with the Mariners taking on a tough Padres team this week, this is a great opportunity for the Royals to catch up in the Wild Card race if the bats can keep rolling.
