Series Preview/Know Your Foe:Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

After a less-than-ideal three game sweep, the Astros continue their road trip with a 4-game set in Baltimore

Orioles Standings:

59-67 (5th in the AL East) 14.5 Games Back, 8.5 Games Back of the last AL WC
Home Record: 30-30 (Astros Road Record: 31-31)
Record vs. AL West: 16-11 (Astros vs AL East: 11-11)
Last 10: 6-4 [LLLWWWLWWW] (HOU: 4-6 [WWLWLWLLLL])
2025 Record vs. Houston: 2-1 (@HOU from Aug 15-17)
All-Time Record vs. Houston: 36-48

Playoff Record: N/A

O’s Season since last meeting: Still a disappointing season. However, armed with some shiny new prospects that made their debut, Baltimore annihilated the Astros 22-5 in the 3-game set, to include being one Urias hit away from a perfect game. They followed that beatdown with a trek to Boston, sweeping a two-game set with their division rivals, finishing off a 5-1 road trip

against playoff-positioned teams. One way to look at this is “too little, too late”. Another is “man, wait until next season when we get some better pitching [hint, hint…Baltimore front office]. If the “kids” from the minors can make some noise in the final few weeks, then Elias (or whoever holds the title of GM) will be in prime position for trading for pitching help. That, and David Rubenstein, he of the multi-billions who promised to spend more money on salary, could spring for pitching reinforcements. Perhaps, for a top-of-the-rotation lefty who eats a lot of innings, can get strikeouts and does have proven postseason success…perhaps, this guy?

Orioles Leaders

Offense: [NOTE: Stat leaders based on eligibility for batting title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

HR: Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg (15)
RBI: Gunnar Henderson (57)
BA: Gunnar Henderson (.281)
OPS: Gunnar Henderson (.824) [NOTE: This is based on eligibility for batting title and who is currently on the roster]

Pitching: [NOTE: Stat leaders based on eligibility for ERA title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

ERA: Dean Kremer (3.97) [Other pitchers on the roster with multiple appearances and a lower ERA but not eligible for the ERA title: Trevor Rogers (1.41 ERA), Felix Bautista (2.60 ERA), Keenan Akin (3.38 ERA)]
Wins: Tomoyuki Sugano (10)
Saves: Felix Bautista (19)
WHIP: Dean Kremer (1.21) [Other pitchers on the roster with better WHIP but not eligible for ERA title: Trevor Rogers (.80), Felix Bautista (1.13)]

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

Thursday, Aug 21 @6:15 p.m. CDT: Jason Alexander (3-1, 4.74 ERA) vs. Brandon Young (1-6, 5.68 ERA)
Friday, Aug 22 @ 6:05 p.m. CDT: Lance McCullers Jr. (2-4, 6.90 ERA) vs. Cade Povich (2-6, 4.98 ERA)
Saturday, Aug 23 @ 6:05 p.m. CDT: Cristian Javier (1-1, 3.38 ERA) vs. Dean Kremer (9-9, 3.97 ERA)
Sunday, Aug 24 @ 12:35 p.m. CDT: Spencer Arrighetti (1-4, 6.94 ERA) vs. Trevor Rogers (6-2, 1.41 ERA)

O’s Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE, ESPECIALLY AT C AND 3B) (BA/OBP/SLG)

C: Adley Rutschman (.227/.310/.373)
1B: Coby Mayo (.204/.277/.357)
2B: Jackson Holliday (.231/.306/.389)
3B: Jordan Westburg (.276/.326/.473)
SS: Gunnar Henderson (.281/.353/.470)
LF: Dylan Beavers (.286/.444/.357) [Made his MLB debut in Houston 8/17]
CF: Colton Cowser (.210/.278/.390)
RF: Jermiah Jackson (.333/.348/.444)
DH: Samuel Basallo (.300/.364/.400) [Made his MLB debut in Houston 8/17]

O’s Offense: Hard to say there’s been a dramatic change in the three games since their last meeting. Most of the key numbers remain the same, although there would be some uptick given the hitting success in Houston and against Boston. They are still in the lower half in most MLB hitting stats (22nd in BA, 24^th in OBP). However, they are 14^th in Slugging and upped their run total ranking from 20^th to 18^th, as Houston saw all-too-well last weekend. One major update is that 3B Jordan Westburg, who had a massive 5 RBI game in the Daikin Park series finale, left Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury and Rutschman did not play in either of the games in Boston, thus making their availability up for question. Henderson added to his homer/RBI totals in Boston, and the O’s are leveraging their bats to this current surge (winning 6 of their last 7). They are a slightly better team at home, so perhaps their hit parade can continue.

O’s Pitching: Still plenty of injuries, but that didn’t seem to hurt the O’s last week. Houston will get the chance to try to excel against Young now with an actual win and still yet to surrender a run to Houston and Dean Kremer, he of the lifetime 1.42 ERA against the Astros. Bautista is officially out for 2025, so the same high-leverage relievers of Akin and Kano remain the primary bullpen/closing options. Granted, Houston didn’t get to see those pitchers aside from the extra inning win last Saturday. Not too many major changes in rankings, as the pitching staff remains among the worst in MLB (26th in ERA and WHIP, 27th in BAA) even accounting for the O’s staff only surrendering more than 3 runs once in their last 8 games, with 3 shutouts. However, the O’s pitching staff might find a chance to further upgrade their numbers against a Houston offense that has only scored runs in one game in their last five, and that was the 5 runs Houston scored in their last victory, the 12-inning marathon.

Most Dangerous Player: 2B Jackson Holliday: Gunnar Henderson still leads the O’s in most offensive categories. However, Holiday had more hitting success in Houston. Also, my eardrums still haven’t recovered from when Houston was last in Baltimore and the slumping Holliday, just fresh back in the majors after an in-season demotion laced a base-clearing double to give Baltimore a lead it wouldn’t relinquish in that particular game (got to see that play live, for better or worse). Holliday is locking down the 2B slot, as Henderson seems well-ensconced at SS. If not for an injury against Boston, you would have to consider Westburg for this designation.

Injuries: Yep, the O’s are rolling, but they still carry a lot of guys on IL. Rutschman and Westburg are added as Day-to-Day, Bradish is on the 60-Day IL, Bautista had surgery that will keep him out for a year and OF Cowser is off the IL:

P Zac Eflin (back); 60-IL; Projected Return: 2026
OF Tyler O’Neill (wrist); added Aug 6; Projected Return: late August/early September
P Albert Suarez (shoulder); 60-IL; Projected Return: late August
P Felix Bautista (shoulder); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: late 2026-2027
P Grayson Rodriguez (elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Tyler Wells (forearm); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: late August
P Kyle Bradish (forearm); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: late August
P Colin Selby (hamstring); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: September
P Scott Blewett (elbow); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD
C Gary Sanchez (knee); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: September
P Cody Poteet (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD
Utility Jorge Mateo (hamstring); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: early September
3B Jordan Westburg (ankle); Day-to-Day; Projected Return: TBD
C Adley Rutschman (abdominal); Day-to-Day; Projected Return: TBD

Intangibles: Quite a swing in a week. For Baltimore, they came off their 22-5 collective beating of Houston and immediately cashed in the momentum against Boston with a two-game road sweep at Fenway. Arguably, they come into the Houston series at home with far better vibes than the team currently in playoff position. For those vets who played in 2023 and 2024, this upsurge must feel bittersweet. While there is a mathematical chance for Baltimore to sneak into the Wild Card, if they can get back close to .500, if not to .500, that would be a massive accomplishment and a major momentum springboard to 2026.

Series Outlook: Houston left the Baltimore series hard broke and followed up their slaughter at Daikin with a demoralizing series sweep to the Tigers in Detroit. They are trying to integrate pitchers back into the lineup from injury, but that’s yielded mixed results, especially at middle/long relief, as Dubin and Scott, who pitched decently before their long IL stints, have been throwing live batting practice in games (Scott has since been released). What does it say that the best low-leverage reliever in this stretch has been OF Chas McCormick? However, the bad pitching is offset by the lack of run scoring. Four shutouts in a five-game stretch is not a good. Even Colorado has avoided that stretch as of late. Sure, a few guys are getting hits but the disparity between BA (6^th in MLB) and runs scored (20^th) is unmatched in MLB. Perhaps Houston is really just holding on to get all of the injured guys back for a September surge. The only saving grace for Houston is that Seattle is also mired in a stretch of suck. As well as Baltimore plays in Houston, Houston historically does enjoy Camden Yards. Perhaps returning to Charm City might offer some reprise from the hellacious baseball being played…but then again, Baltimore is still in last place, and we all know how Houston plays last place teams…which has been as well as 1^st place teams, so…you know what, just play the games.

NATIONAL COVERAGE: Two of the four are slated for national coverage: