With the conclusion of Kevin Gausman’s 5-year, $110 million contract that he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays after the Giants left him on read following the 2021 season, we can now see if the gamble to replace him in the aggregate as the team’s co-ace or, simply, the #2 starter to pair with Logan Webb, worked out as well as ownership expected it to after Farhan Zaidi no doubt offered his recommendation.
It’s important to keep in mind that after the Barry Zito, Jeff Samardzija, and Johnny Cueto deals
($346 million for 21.7 fWAR across 2,407 IP) and the Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain extensions ($153 million for 1 fWAR across 781 IP), the team’s ownership group decided that long-term pitching contracts weren’t good investments anymore and effectively banned them.
Sure, the Giants did wind up signing Logan Webb to a 5-year, $90 million extension back in 2023, but that caught a pitcher just as he was entering his prime rather than pay a premium to get (mostly) the downside of a guy’s career. I’ve already written about how Webb might already be at that point, but the Giants only have two years left on that deal. Kevin Gausman’s free agency started with a big red flag: year 1 of the deal would be his age-31 season. Instead, the team opted to go with short-term solutions while they waited for the farm system to produce the next crop of Logan Webbs or Matt Cains. Did the gambit pay off?
I’ve already checked in on the strategy a few times over the years, including a Giants-Blue Jays Series Preview from July, but that was before the deadline. That post included this graphic, which covered nearly the whole topic —
But now, with the season having concluded and Gausman’s Cubs team eliminated from the postseason, we can now look back and see how the entire strategy played out. AND, also, that this graphic was missing a VERY important pitcher, who I’ll get to in a moment.
Gausman wound up making all of his starts in his 5-year deal, allaying the injury concerns. From 2022-26, he threw 911.1 innings in 157 starts, went 57-53 with a 3.68 ERA (3.93 FIP), 9.65 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, and 1.00 HR/9.
The #2 starter trio of Carlos Rodon (2022), Alex Cobb (2022-2023), Robbie Ray (2024-2026), and Blake Snell (2024) threw 918.2 innings in 167 starts, went 57-42 with a 3.69 ERA (3.31 FIP), 9.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9. Here’s that graphic, refreshed:
Well, by every measure, Gausman won the move. Even in in the traditional counting stats. The Giants saved themselves $1.9 million and lost 6.1 wins above replacement over the last 5 years. Those 5 theoretical wins wouldn’t have amounted to very much in the grand scheme of things — the Giants would still be 391-419 since the start of the 2022 season — but on a weekly or monthly level, Gausman pitching consistently might’ve had a positive knock-on effect with the rotation and then bullpen.
Or, he could’ve gotten injured.
And, of course, the other way the Giants might have eked out a win with this strategy is in the returns they got for Cobb (who was on the IL at the time and hadn’t pitched an inning for the team in 2024) or Ray (to division rival San Diego). But they held on to Rodon and Snell at those respective deadlines. Of course, Snell then threw a no-hitter in his first start after the deadline, but the Giants never seemed all that interested in keeping him at all costs. And the return for Gausman (I know I misspelled Tyl Southisene’s name, but I’m not editing that image again) seems like it could be solid for Toronto as much as the Giants’ returns could be; though, they obviously win by that comparison based on volume alone or simply because they got Jacob Bresnahan.
Now, you could argue that there was a tweak in the strategy starting in 2024, when the team knew Alex Cobb wouldn’t be healthy enough to start the season, and possibly miss a decent chunk of the year. So, they hedged a bit by trading for Robbie Ray (and alleviating some of the dead money owed to Mitch Haniger) and setting themselves up for the next couple of years. They also stayed engaged with Blake Snell until they landed him (perhaps to his and the team’s detriment). So, at some point, the team recognized that money had to be spent on the rotation. But, wow, nearly $34 million for 3 extra wins above replacement across 5 seasons.
To be fair, although the Giants let their fear of age and injury prevent them from committing five years to Kevin Gausman but instead give out shorter terms to four pitchers with age and injury decline in their profiles, they did aim very high and succeeded in bringing in two Cy Young winners and another who was both not 30 and had garnered Cy Young votes the previous year (Rodon). So, it’s not like they pivoted from Kevin Gausman to Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle.
And you might quibble that Cobb doesn’t belong in this conversation at all. That he doesn’t amount to a co-ace or even a #2 starter. I don’t think that’s true, though. The reporting at the time suggested this was exactly the case. The Giants already knew they had a great one in Logan Webb, and so pairing him with a player of a similar profile helped him get better. So, Cobb belongs in the conversation. And he pitched well in the two seasons he managed to give them (he was an All-Star in 2023).
By the way, Cobb’s All-Star appearance wasn’t the only one of the group’s. Robbie Ray was an All-Star for the Giants last season. Carlos Rodon was an All-Star and got Cy Young votes in his lone Giants season. Blake Snell pitched a no-hitter. No postseason appearances, though, because the Giants weren’t good enough to make it into the lowered standard of the third Wild Card.
Gausman had Cy Young votes in the first two seasons of the five-year deal and was an All-Star in 2023. He didn’t throw a no-hitter, but he did have 3 complete games including 2 shutouts. He also made 8 starts in the postseason (and one relief outing) for Toronto and Chicago, posting a 4.12 ERA in 43.2 IP.
Spending $143.9 million over 5 years to come away with no positive memories but maybe 5-7 years of Jacob Bresnahan dominating at the major league level doesn’t feel like this strategy worked. The Giants seemed to have paid more than it paid out. At the end of the day, that was the concern once it became clear this was the team’s plan, and just because it’s come to pass doesn’t mean it should be shrugged off. But it also shouldn’t be totally condemned, either.
No, not because Cobb, Ray, and Snell spent a lot of time on the IL — injuries are a terrible excuse for sustained poor performance — but because it kinda worked? The Giants basically signed these guys in a pocket of high performance and got out maybe a season too soon rather than be stuck with a long-term contract that’s hard to move… not trying to compare that to Chapman/Adames situation the team now finds itself in, but it is interesting to note.
Wow. I can’t believe I’m not going to talk about the Giants’ decision to move on from Kevin Gausman ever again (unless they bring him back in free agency this offseason). But what do you think? In the final analysis, was ditching Kevin Gausman the right move?
