In the fairly low global stakes fantasy world of sports the 2026-27 NBA season is a high stakes one for the Houston Rockets. We’ve reached a point where all three facets of the team: management, coaching, players, all need to deliver. Or we can go to that old “three legged stool” analogy for the team.
What exactly do they need to deliver? At the very least the Rockets need to win a playoff series. If they don’t, barring some roster catastrophe, it’s difficult to see ownership not making significant
changes. The Rockets are now past the “scrappy up and coming team” point. After making the playoff two seasons in a row, and then promptly exiting in painful fashion both times, once to a vastly depleted Lakers team, it’s time to show something more. Can they? I think so. Will they? I’m not so sure.
Right now we have a management and coaching team that overall has proven better at making excuses than winning playoff series. Against the Warriors Jalen Green somehow got all the blame, despite a coaching performance that showed, generously, a limited ability to adjust to the opponent. Against a Lakers team featuring a 41 year old LeBron James, and no Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves, the management whinge was no Fred VanVleet and no Steven Adams, and Kevin Durant shocking no one with an injury, and essentially missing the series. We’ll get to coaching, and players, in parts 2 and 3.
So, the Rockets had essentially no effective point guard play in their series versus Los Angeles. Neither second year player Reed Sheppard, nor Amen Thompson were up to the task. Kevin Durant wasn’t either, and never was going to be, despite coaching insistence on initiating the offense through a veteran, and HoF, scorer and finisher, rather than initiator, all season.
Well, no Fred VanVleet was a surprise, right? Sure, if you’re still surprised in mid April over an injury that occurred in September of the previous year. Several competent, possibly equal or better (given FVV’s largely dismal 24-25 season), point guards were traded in season for less than the Rockets paid to get off Dorian Finney-Smith’s contract in the off season. Not one of those guards, of course, went to the Rockets. Losing Fred VanVleet isn’t like OKC losing SGA for the entire season, or the same with the Spurs and Wemby. That’s a real excuse, a real season destroyer. In the Rockets case they basically had the same season they had the year before (except for slowing their pace even more, somehow, to 29th in the NBA on offense) without VanVleet.
I believe it’s perfectly fair to blame management for having neither a coherent contingency plan nor a response for the loss of VanVleet.
Oh, and then the Rockets lost Steven Adams. This was shocking? How? Steven Adams, over the past four season has averaged playing in 33 of 82 potential regular season games, to be a bit kinder, and going to five years it’s 41. What this indicates, though, is a player you cannot expect to be available when you need him. I think Adams is a unique player, and fun to watch, but if your cunning plan is relying on Steven Adams playing in the post-season, it’s not a great plan.
The last season showed us a GM who simply couldn’t, or wouldn’t, react on to injuries he knew about in the preseason, or early in the season, to attempt to salvage that season. Why would you attempt to salvage that season? One, life is finite. Two, Kevin Durant is even more finite, at 37. How many years does Durant have left at his current level? Whatever the answer, it can’t be many.
Rafael Stone has shown himself to possibly be one of the best contract negotiators, and salary cap managers in the NBA. In terms of drafting, development, roster construction, coach selection, and active roster management, Stone has shown himself to be, at best, middling. In some of those areas, coach selection, player development, roster management, I’d suggest he’s actually a negative, or detriment, to team success. Right now Stone doesn’t profile as a top NBA General Manager. He currently has the profile of the top assistant to a top General Manager.
Compare Stone to say, Sam Presti or the Rose team in New York, and you’ll see what I mean. The Knicks constructed a championship roster with literally one player drafted by the team playing real playoff minutes. I want to like Stone, I want him to do well, but stalled development of top 5 picks across the board, no reaction to a serious injury, and his growing propensity to offer excuses, rather than solutions, has me worried.
I will say that signing the consensus best shooting coach in the NBA was a good move, and long overdue. It’s difficult to see it doing anything but improving the team. Stone’s other off season moves were…fine. Adequate. But being Mr. Adequate in everything but contract negotiation might not be good enough for much longer.
In any case, I think Stone had better hope the Rockets at least win a playoff series this year. This team is entirely of his making, or at least has his signature on it all. I can’t imagine he has much runway left, barring greater team success. We will see what next season brings.
