The playoffs are back in Foxboro. The New England Patriots are getting set to welcome the Los Angeles Chargers to Gillette Stadium for a Sunday night showdown on wild card weekend.
With that, let’s get into this week’s #PostPulpit Mailbag.
The Chargers’ defense looks legit against the pass. Seems Jesse Minter runs a modern Fangio-style, two-high shell that morphs into man on verticals and zone underneath, paired with a strong pass rush. The tradeoff appears to be run defense — that’s where opponents
have found openings.
This type of defense I’ve heard cited as a potential answer to Drake Maye. How has he actually fared against split-safety, zone-match looks?vSo what’s the counter? How should the Patriots offense attack this defense? Do we take the ball out of Maye’s hands and lean on the run? Are there opportunities to attack with the pass given they likley will take away the deep ball? – CanuckYaz
As you hinted at, the Chargers defense spends most of their time in zone coverage (80.7 percent, 5th highest) — rotating primarily between quarters, split-safety, and cover-three — which has led to them limiting explosive plays as the fifth-lowest rate in the league. That does not mean big plays are impossible to find, however.
Two weeks ago, old friend Nick Caley found a pair of explosive touchdowns on deep posts against LA’s match quarter calls — which have four defenders in the deep portion of the field in zone but can match receivers with man-to-man principles underneath or overtop when routes declare. Prior to that, George Pickens also connected on a deep touchdown vs. the Chargers attacking the backside of quarters which essentially becomes man-to-man.
If the touchdown looks familiar, that’s because it’s essentially the same play and coverage as Kyle Williams’ touchdown in Baltimore.
With Drake Maye’s success vs. zone this season and with his ability to push the ball downfield, explosive plays should be available Sunday night. But, as he said Wednesday: “Don’t get bored being efficient.” Chargers DC Jesse Minter also isn’t afraid to heat up opposing quarterbacks when they need a big play, so the Pats offense will need answers.
As for the ground game, New England’s red hot rushing attack could continue to find success against the Chargers defense specifically running downhill duo schemes. L.A. has struggled defending that approach and guarding play-action off of it — something Maye found success with last week going 6-for-6 on his play-action attempts and averaging 15.7 yards per.
What’s the bigger concern: our pass rush vs. their offensive line, or their pass rush vs. our protection? How have teams slowed the Chargers offense lately — and do the Patriots have the defensive personnel to replicate that approach? – CanuckYaz
The Patriots pass rush should have an advantage over the Chargers offensive line, which ranks dead last in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate. A dominant effort in the trenches up front is where the Patriots defense can take control of this matchup.
While the Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman-led offense has not run the ball as much as you’d expect the pairing to do so this season, stopping their rushing attack and getting after Justin Herbert is the path towards slowing them down. I’d expect plenty of line games up front at that point centered around Milton Williams and Christian Barmore as LA has specifically struggled protecting and communicating in those situations. And with Herbert dealing with a broken left hand, the sensational QB has been prone to putting the ball on the ground more with five fumbles since suffering the break compared to just two in 12 games before hand.
During the regular season, the Patriots have had a blitz rate of 27.2 (middle of the pack) while the Chargers have one of the lowest in the league at 18.9. Given the Chargers o-line woes, should we anticipate a higher blitz rate from the Pats, or is it more likely to see the team adhere to the higher light-box rate and frequent sub-package schemes, since Herbert is a highly skilled downfield passer even with little time in the pocket?
Inversely, do we anticipate the Chargers ramping up their blitz rate since this is Drake Maye’s first playoff game, with them banking on some mistakes being made by him with more pressure? – Sdceltsfan
The Patriots need to find ways to pressure Herbert, but don’t think they’ll look to heat up the QB with extra rushers in this one. Herbert ranks seconds in EPA vs. the blitz this season so New England can hopefully get pressure on a beaten offensive line without blitzing.
As we said up top, Minter has not been shy this season of bringing zone pressures and cover zero blitzes. Now, Herbert’s rank vs. the blitz only trails Maye, so perhaps the Chargers will hold off unless they truly need to try and make a big play to swing things in their favor.
Greetings from Denmark!
If we lose on Sunday night — in a fair fight like the Bills (loss) and Ravens (win) games — would you consider our season a success or a mild failure?Nobody envisioned us hosting a home playoff game, but now that we’re here, can we really be satisfied with a loss at home to the Chargers? // Lundgaard
The season is already a success based off of preseason expectations. Besides the wins, the two biggest things you hoped to see — Drake Maye becoming the clear-cut answer and Mike Vrabel proving to be the correct hire — have come true. Now, at least one playoff would be the true cherry on top for the season.
It looks like all Chargers fans say they are happy to face Patriots in cold Foxborough with basically no offensive line instead of going to Jacksonville mild weather if they had played and won vs Broncos. I am very surprised of that. Wtf ? – 7i175
The Patriots’ pass rush seemed to be the biggest reason for Chargers’ fans (and maybe the team as they rested starters in Week 18 with the five seed on the line) wanted this matchup. LA’s offensive line is in rough, rough shape along the interior and have spent most of the season down starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater due to injury.
New England’s pass rush without a blitz ranks 31st in pressure rate this season, which might make LA believe their patch-work offensive line can hold up and allow Justin Herbert to make plays through the air. But with Milton Williams back and Harold Landry set to return after two games off, the hope is the unit still has the ability to wreak havoc against weaker competition.
Should the Pats get past the Chargers on Sunday night, what team do you see heading to Denver to take on Bo Nix & the Broncos & why do you believe they’ll be the victor? – KissBillsRings
I’m picking the Jaguars over the Bills and the Texans over the Steelers. That would send Houston to Denver, where I believe that defense could certainly make things difficult for Bo Nix. The Broncos defense has also started to fall off slightly near the end of the season and that team as a whole seems to play down to their competition.
Which teams are possible opponents in the divisional round following the win over the Chargers? – coolbeanz
Assuming Maye stays accurate, the Stevenson/Henderson combo stays hot, and the health of key players gets the Run D back to the Week 1-10 standard, what are the best potential matchups for the rest of the playoffs, assuming they beat the Chargers? – slunkywontergreen
As the No. 2 seed, New England would get the highest seed that emerges from the Wild Card round. Based on my predictions above, I would guess the Jaguars make a trip to Foxboro for the Divisional Round which would be a tough matchup.
The best path for the Patriots in my eyes would be the Steelers in the Divisional Round and then the Texans in the AFC Championship Game. Both games would be at home and we’d certainly bet on Drake Maye to outscore Aaron Rodgers and C.J. Stroud.
On the upcoming Draft being that we’ll probably have pick #30 or above which position do you think the Patriots will draft the EDGE rusher from Oregon looks good – Nbkpats
A pass rusher will be one of, if not the biggest needs for the Patriots roster this season. We’ll talk a lot about edge rushers with their first-round pick (whether that’s via the actual draft or trading the pick for someone like Maxx Crosby) this upcoming draft season and Matayo Uiagalelei is one of those options after posting 12.5 and 9.5 sacks each of the last two seasons.
That’s all for this week’s #PostPulpit mailbag. If you have questions you’d liked to be answered next week, submit them online in our weekly submission post or on Twitter using #PostPulpit. Make sure to be following @iambrianhines and @PatsPulpit as well.
