Yesterday, I pondered the preferred first-round opponents for the current top-four seeds in the WNBA playoffs.
Today, we turn to the final four playoff participants, as the Dallas Wings officially clinched their spot in the 2026 postseason on Tuesday night, defeating the Portland Fire behind a 22-point and 11-assist double-double from Paige Bueckers.
Did the Dallas win inspire any second thoughts from higher-seed teams that think they would not mind seeing the Wings across the way in the first round?
And if the Wings had their choice, which team should they want to play?
Let’s consider the ideal first-round scenarios for the Indiana Fever, Washington Mystics, New York Liberty and Wings. Jump into the comments to share your favorite first-round matchups, and if you think any of these teams have what it takes to win multiple series.
No. 5-seed Indiana Fever (25-14)
Edwin Garcia argued that the Fever are one of just two teams, with the other being the Minnesota Lynx, that can truly be considered a title contender, as their offensive rating and pace of play meet the benchmarks established by recent WNBA champions.
I’m not there, as their 2-2 season series split with Atlanta Dream, the current No. 4 seed, suggests they might not make it out of their first-round matchup.
If they are to reach the championship ceiling that Edwin sees as possible, I think a first-round series against the Las Vegas Aces or Liberty has to be their preference. Although Indiana has experienced some ugly late-game execution against both teams, those teams’ shakier defenses would allow the Fever to lean into their offensive strengths and win with scoring firepower.
No. 6-seed New York Liberty (23-15)
As I noted yesterday, the Liberty have performed particularly well against their familiar rival: the Aces. A potential first-round victory over the defending champs would salvage a season that was supposed to see the Liberty sitting at the top of the standings—not in the No. 6 seed.
Slipping down the standings to likely meet Golden State or Minnesota, in contrast, would make it difficult for New York to advance further that last season, making this a second-straight failed season for an organization with loud championship ambitions.
With just one game played against the Dream, a win back in early June, the two game set between the two teams at the very end of the regular season could be interesting opportunities for data collection ahead of a possible first-round series.
No. 7-seed Washington Mystics (23-15)
Our Beckett Harrison argues that the Golden State Valkyries should be the preferred first-round foe for the Mystics.
I don’t disagree. Although, I would posit the any top-seeded team, even the Lynx, should be wary of drawing DC as their opening round opponent.
And with at least one win over every higher-seeded squad in a season that was supposed to be a slow build, Washington should enter any series with a nothing-to-lose confidence. That attitude, backed up by an overwhelmingly physical style of play, should make them feared by any favorite.
As Beckett discussed, a lack of shotmaking might ultimately spoil the Mystics’ upset bid, but if just enough shots fall, they’re capable of taking down not only the Valkyries, but also the Lynx or Aces.
No. 8-seed Dallas Wings (23-16)
If the Wings can’t escape the No. 8 seed, it’s difficult to see them enjoying their return to the playoffs, unless Paige musters a mountain of Minnesota magic to take down the top-seeded Lynx.
As Golden State and Atlanta also have caused major trouble for Dallas, the Wings need to try to manipulate their way into a first-round series against the Aces or Fever. Similar to the Fever, a series that trends toward offense first, second and third is going give the Wings a better chance of proving that they are not, in fact, first-round food.
