Despite riding a three-game losing streak into Selection Sunday, the Virginia Cavaliers women’s basketball team squeaked into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018, earning a No. 10 seed and a trip to the First Four.
The Cavaliers, who enter March Madness with a 19-11 (11-7 ACC) record, will make the trip to Iowa’s Carver-Hawkeye Arena for a date with fellow No. 10 seed Arizona State on Thursday evening. The winner
will face seventh-seeded Georgia in the Round of 64 on Saturday.
Tip-off from the First Four is set for 9 PM EST, with coverage available on ESPN2.
To get you set for Virginia’s showdown with Arizona State, here are three Sun Devils to know, two storylines to keep an eye on, and one prediction for Thursday’s game.
Three Sun Devils to know
#0 | Gabby Elliott
A sixth-year guard from Detroit, Michigan, Gabby Elliott’s tenure at Arizona State marks her fourth school in an injury-riddled, coast-to-coast collegiate career. Though Elliott hasn’t been in Tempe for very long, she has quickly become the focal point of first-year ASU head coach Molly Miller’s offense.
Averaging a team-high 16.0 points per game (good for eighth-best in the Big 12), Elliott is a 5-foot-11 three-level scorer who can get buckets in bunches. Though her perimeter shooting numbers are down from last season (42% to 32%), Elliott has ramped up her overall scoring output while becoming ASU’s go-to option in the clutch.
Elliott is also a reliable force on the defensive end. Her above-average length and size for a guard make her a versatile stopper capable of guarding multiple positions, and Elliott is swiping 1.6 steals per game (top-20 in the conference).
With Elliott at the forefront, the Sun Devils boast the nation’s 15th-best defense, according to BartTorvik.com, by getting after opposing ballhandlers with full-court pressure. Miller’s defensive principles rely on creating chaos, grinding out possessions, and generating turnovers, and Elliott is the head of the snake.
#21 | McKinna Brackens
Standing at 6-foot-1, McKinna Brackens is a skilled wing who can beat a defense in a variety of ways. The junior forward spent her first two collegiate seasons at UNLV before joining the Sun Devils for the 2025-26 season, setting the stage for a breakout campaign in which she’s averaging 14.6 points and a team-high 6.3 rebounds per game.
An agile interior scorer, Brackens has the quickness to take post players off the dribble and the footwork to navigate traffic down low. Brackens is also a capable three-point shooter (32%), though she doesn’t let it fly from distance very often.
#14 | Heloisa Carrera
The Sun Devils have a pretty defined ‘big three’ on the offensive end, and Heloisa Carrera is the final member of that trio. A 6-foot-2 sophomore forward from São Paulo, Brazil, Carrera averages 10.4 points and pulls down 5.3 boards per game.
Carrera doesn’t stretch the floor (just one three-point attempt all season), but she’s ASU’s most efficient interior scorer (53.8%) and a laterally quick defensive weapon that holds down the paint for Miller’s defense.
Two storylines to keep an eye on
Virginia’s size vs. ASU’s tenacity
Arizona State is an undersized, scrappy bunch that relies on full-court pressure and defensive intensity to grind out wins. The Sun Devils force opponents into 19.4 turnovers per game (third-most in the Big 12) while allowing just 60.6 points per contest.
Virginia’s strengths, however, should present a very favorable matchup. The Sun Devils capitalize on turning over opposing ballhandlers, but the ’Hoos have as sure-handed a backcourt as it gets in Kymora Johnson and Paris Clark. With a 1.22 assist-to-turnover ratio, the Cavaliers move the ball well enough to deal with the press and have enough quickness at guard to deal with ASU’s athleticism.
Additionally, UVA should feast on the glass. The ’Hoos are the second-best rebounding (and offensive rebounding) team in the ACC, while Arizona State utilizes a much smaller lineup. Grabbing offensive boards to extend possessions and getting out in transition by locking down the defensive glass are two easy ways to counter a potent press, and Virginia excels at both.
The battle of expectations
Despite both finding themselves in the First Four, Virginia and Arizona State’s paths to Iowa City were drastically different.
In Tempe, vibes are sky high. After a 10-win season in 2024-25, former Grand Canyon head coach Molly Miller has rebuilt ASU back into an NCAA Tournament team in the first year of her tenure. The Sun Devils, who made six-straight NCAA Tournament appearances (including two Sweet 16 trips) from 2014-2019, are ahead of schedule in their rebuild and playing some of their best basketball as of late.
Meanwhile, Virginia’s trip to the NCAA Tournament seems overdue. Coach Mox has done wonders for the program since arriving in Charlottesville, but postseason success has alluded the ’Hoos — who have limped into March again this season — under her watch.
Pressure is mounting on Coach Mox to deliver on an expensive roster, and the disparity in expectations sets up a dangerous situation for Virginia. ASU’s season will be considered a success regardless of Thursday’s result. Virginia’s, fair or not, will be a letdown should it not reach the main field of 64.
One prediction
Virginia outranks Arizona State in the NET (36 vs. 51) and in BartTorvik.com’s T-rank (40 vs. 45), owns two more Quad 1 wins, and has a 73.3% chance to win according to ESPN analytics.
That percentage seems generous given Virginia’s recent struggles, but the ’Hoos seemingly match up very well with the Sun Devils. If UVA can dominate the rebounding battle, take care of the basketball, and get out in transition, Coach Mox’s squad should be moving on to the weekend.
I wouldn’t expect a blowout, but Virginia will have the best player on the court in Kymora Johnson, who will help the ’Hoos make just enough plays down the stretch to earn an NCAA Tournament win.
Prediction: Virginia 68, ASU 65
