I recently laid out how Brandon Beane has drafted as the Buffalo Bills general manager relative to NFL-wide historical expectations
for every single draft pick.The natural follow is to then compare Beane’s results to other perceived top GMs in the NFL, over the same time period. I used 2018 – 2023 in the initial study.
You can check that initial article for the complete methodology, but if you don’t feel like jumping back, here’s the TL;DR:
I found the expected Weighted Approximate Value (wAV), which
is a Pro Football Reference measure of how good a player has been in the NFL, for every draft pick number across 15 seasons and then compared that to the actual wAV for every player to get a “residual” for every pick Beane made in the 2018 – 2023 time frame.
Believe me, I understand how it might feel like I’m belaboring the point by now, but many comments in the initial article asked about how the Bills’ results compared to the likes of the Chiefs, Eagles, and others.
Here’s how the Bills drafts have stacked up with the Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks, Eagles, and Rams from 2018 – 2023, determined by residual per pick.
vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Now there is one major caveat here with Kansas City — Patrick Mahomes was drafted in 2017, but I only looked at 2018 – 2023 in the initial study. However, for fairness, the Chiefs’ Round 1 Residual / Pick above did factor the 2017 Mahomes class.
And the Residual / Pick for Kansas City in 2017 — which is not shown above — is 17.44, so the Bills are still winners if comparing to Buffalo’s Josh Allen class of 2018.
Pretty dead heat here between Beane and Chiefs GM Brett Veach, with Buffalo coming out on top in seven of the 13 categories. The Bills were better in four of the six years, and the Chiefs won four of the seven draft rounds, yet two of them were Round 6 and Round 7.
vs. Baltimore Ravens
Eric DeCosta has long been one of the best and most respected GMs in the NFL. These results surprised me a bit, with the Bills having the advantage in nine of the 13 categories overall and four of the six years in the sample.
The Ravens’ sixth-round hits of center Bradley Bozeman and safety DeShon Elliott anchored their win there, and Zach Sieler, Geno Stone, and Andrew Vorhees buoy their huge Residual / Pick in the seventh round. Not shocking to see the 2018 class essentially neck-and-neck with these two clubs given the selections of Allen and Lamar Jackson.
vs. Seattle Seahawks
Clean sweep for the Bills over the defending champs, a team run by longtime GM John Schneider, who now has a pair of Super Bowl rings during his time in Seattle.
Ironically, last year’s Seahawks club rode the wave of free-agent signings like Sam Darnold, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Uchenna Nwosu and, uniquely, players acquired via trade — Leonard Williams, Ernest Jones, and Rashid Shaheed to the title.
The 2024 and 2025 classes for Seattle — not included in this study of course — were integral too.
vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Howie Roseman has asserted himself as an elite GM in the NFL, and he has multiple Super Bowl appearances and victories as prime evidence.
The Bills had the edge in 10 of the 13 categories, albeit many of the “wins” were narrow victories. The Eagles certainly hit on some early-round picks in the study’s time frame, yet their Round 1 Residual / Pick was dragged down by the selections of receiver Jalen Reagor and offensive tackle Andre Dillard.
Philadelphia’s huge figure in Round 7 can be tied almost completely to offensive tackle Jordan Mailata, although defensive tackle Moro Ojomo has really come into his own as a disruptive force on the interior.
vs. Los Angeles Rams
Les Snead has been the Rams GM since 2012, and he’s hit some gargantuan home runs in the draft — Aaron Donald chief among them. Ironically, this study fell precisely in Snead’s ‘F them picks’ era when Los Angeles did not make a single first-round selection.
Beane’s Day 3 brilliance has been well documented, but thanks to the likes of reciever Puka Nacua, running back Kyren Williams, safety Quentin Lake, guard David Edwards, and defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day, the Rams actually came out on top in Rounds 5 – 7. Overall, Buffalo had the advantage of seven of the 12 categories.
Now you now how the Beane drafts from 2018 – 2013 have compared to five of the most respected, successful, and longest tenured GMs in the NFL.
