With 12 games left in the regular season, the San Diego Padres have a magic number of six. Either six victories by the Friars or a combination of victories for the Padres and defeats for the Mets that equal six will guarantee them a playoff spot. If the San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks or the Cincinnati Reds pass the New York Mets for the last Wild Card, the same holds true for them.
The champagne could flow as early as Friday, but more likely it will be over the weekend. The site should
be the visiting locker room for the Chicago White Sox, as that is where the Padres will be from Friday through Sunday.
As it stands now, the playoff picture is rounding into shape for MLB. The Milwaukee Brewers have already clinched their spot and are 5.5 games up on the Chicago Cubs for the division title. The Philadelphia Phillies are down to one for their magic number and are two games behind the Brewers for the best record in the NL and home field advantage.
The Padres are 2.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title, but need to be at least a half game up at the end as the Dodgers own the tie breaker. If they don’t catch the Dodgers, they need to surpass the 3.5 game deficit against the top Wild Card team, the Cubs, in order to secure home field advantage in their first round.
If you are a scoreboard watcher or follow multiple games on a given day, it is to the Padres best interest for you to root for the Reds to lose to the St. Louis Cardinals and then take the series versus the Cubs. The Dbacks then need to beat the Giants and then San Francisco needs to beat up on LA.
If all stays the same as it stands now, the Padres will travel to Chicago for the best-of-three Wild Card Series. That will begin Sept. 30 on ESPN.
The respective Division Series would begin on Oct. 4 with Fox/FS1 carrying the ALDS and TBS/TruTV/HBOMax carrying the NLDS. The best-of-five could run until Oct. 11.
The Championship Series would begin Oct. 12 for the ALCS and Oct. 13 for the NLCS, concluding on Oct. 20 or 21, if they went the full seven games.
The World Series would begin Oct. 24 and would conclude Nov. 1, if it went the full seven games. That would be the latest World Series end in history.
FanGraphs has playoff odds listed for all current teams in contention, with the Padres having a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs for 2025. The Wild Card is most likely at 93.1% with a 6.7% chance to win the division and a 4.8% chance to win the World Series.
The last 12 games of the season will determine the playoff picture with multiple teams still in contention and the Friars in the thick of it. Let’s hope the latest offensive surge can carry them through to the champagne bath in the near future.
