Last weekend was kind to us, outside of Oregon State scoring two fewer points than their team total, preventing our first clean sweep of the season. Nevertheless, after our 2-1 week of the season, we are back for another version of Mountain West best bets as we head into Week 5! Let’s dive into it!
All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Matt’s record: 8-8, -0.9 units
Navy/Air Force u45.5 (-110):
Skinny: I’m not going to reinvent the wheel when two service academies play. My logic isn’t ingenious, new development: Service
academy games, which live on the ground, are auto-unders for me. It could be Army-Navy, Navy-Air Force or Army-Air Force, I’m betting the under.
To combat that, both offenses have been fairly efficient on the ground. Air Force totaled 455 yards of offense — albeit across two overtimes — last week against Nevada, while Navy had 353 against UAB. Air Force’s defense is far more volatile, and Navy doesn’t run a standard triple-option attack — instead using a more spread option look. Still, in this matchup, the total has gone below this aforementioned under in five of the last eight and in seven of the last 11 times.
I’m OK with betting this number here.
UNLV -2.5 v. California (-112):
Skinny: This is more of an indictment on Cal’s offense than UNLV’s defense, which still hasn’t stood out to me despite ranking in the top-30 in EPA/play against the pass and top-60 in EPA/play against the rush. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a legitimately good quarterback who will make a lot of money in his future. But Cal’s offense under first-year offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville looks legitimately broken.
Cal’s offense has exceeded 250 yards just one across three FBS games, and they rank outside the top-80 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric offensively, as well as No. 120 in EPA/play offensively. UNLV will be returning home for the first time in over a month with some positive momentum after smacking Akron last weekend. I like the Runnin’ Rebels in this spot here.
Hawai’i/San José State u51.5 (-110):
Skinny: So, are we going to bet the under in Hawai’i games each week?
Well, until their offense shows me something, we may as well, right!
This bet isn’t just an indictment on that, however. Since San Jose State’s Week 0 game against USC, the Spartans are allowing just 22.3 points per game and 4.7 yards per play offensively. Their pass rush, led by EDGE Justin Stearns and linebacker Dylan Lee, has showed flashes, and I’m still legitimately worried about Hawaii’s volatility up front despite ranking in the top-80 nationally in both EPA/play in passing and running situations.
I am expecting a bounce back performance from Luke Weaver and the Spartans, which turned the ball four times (all interceptions) in Week 3 against Fresno State, a 26-10, despite finishing with only nine fewer total yards than them. But neither offense has been spectacular through four weeks, so I’m leaning toward the under here, even with a less favorable hook.
