Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 25 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Yager Stadium — Oxford, OH
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-1.5)
- Over/under: 41.5
- All-time series: Miami (OH) leads, 38-24-1
- Last meeting: Miami (OH) 34, Western Michigan 21 — October 14, 2023
- Current streak: Miami (OH), 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
It’s getting lonely at the top of the MAC standings, and it’s about to get lonelier. Miami (OH) (4-3, 3-0 MAC) and Western Michigan (4-3, 3-0 MAC) are two of three teams, along with Buffalo, wielding perfect
records in MAC play. What’s most bizarre about this matchup is that the RedHawks and Broncos are on an identical trajectory. Both started 0-3 as a member of the final 11 teams to register their first victory of 2025.
Yet weeks later, Miami and Western Michigan are 4-0 and scalding hot. Both teams — subject to shutouts and offensive funks earlier in the season — now discovered a capable offense while maintaining sharp defensive qualities. Saturday is when the trajectories finally split, as one team will win its fifth-straight and the other will revert back to .500 and lose a perfect MAC record.
Western Michigan Broncos outlook
During this 4-game win streak, Western Michigan has allowed a total of 30 points, calculating to 7.5 per game. Even during the 0-3 start, it was evident this Broncos team was special defensively. Michigan State failed to notch a single offensive point in the second half, Illinois was held to 10 through two quarters, and North Texas’ currently No. 1 ranked scoring offense only managed 27 in regulation. That shows every offense is susceptible to taking lumps against the Broncos. Even Toledo which has four 45+ point outbursts this year only managed 14 in Kalamazoo.
Western Michigan ranks 14th in the FBS in total defense, and both the run defense and pass defense are major strengths. The Broncos yield 170 passing yards per game at a 59.8 completion clip and limit teams to 113 rushing yards on a 3.4 average. It all starts with pressure, pressure, pressure. Western Michigan may have the most valuable transfer portal addition in the MAC in Nadame Tucker, who ranks fourth nationally with 8.5 sacks and leads the MAC with 12.5 tackles for loss. The Houston transfer also forced a pair of fumbles in a breakout campaign, and his presence is felt by every opposing offensive line, quarterback, and running back.
Defensive end Rodney McGraw adds four sacks to the table, and as a whole, Western Michigan is tied atop the FBS averaging 4.0 per game. This pressure is boosting the turnover output as well, and the Broncos tie for the MAC’s best with 11 takeaways. Tucker is one star to watch, and another is free safety Tate Hallock. The 2024 All-MAC selection has 34 tackles and a pick-six as one of the most versatile pieces on a well-rounded defense.
On the other hand, the offense has produced some antithetical performances, failing to register a single point in losses to Michigan State and Illinois. However, the unit is progressing since ditching the two-quarterback rotation system. Broc Lowry has emerged as the starter and unleashed the best performance of his career in the last matchup — a 42-0 shutout over Ball State. Lowry went 23-of-27 for 241 yards and two touchdowns, while also showcasing his legs to the tune of 108 rushing yards and another score.
Lowry will run the ball often, and he has 427 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the season. He doesn’t torch defenses with 300 yards, but he is taking good care of the ball with a 65.2 completion rate and one interception on the season.
Western Michigan’s running back room — led by former 1,000-yard rusher Jalen Buckley — hasn’t got off to an ideal start, with the position averaging a collective 3.6 yards per carry. Most of the ground work is produced by Lowry, and a boost from Buckley and Co. could make this offense lethal enough to contend for a MAC title. Yet, the run game is relatively the better part of the offense as the passing attack ranks 124th in yards per game. Tailique Williams and Baylin Brooks are the main playmakers at receiver, with a fantastic blocking tight end in Blake Bosma also getting involved.
Miami (OH) RedHawks outlook
Miami is on a dynastic run in MAC play. The RedHawks have won 19 of their last 21 regular season conference matchups, faring 7-1 in consecutive seasons under Chuck Martin and starting 2025 at 3-0. Miami regularly struggles starting its seasons — with difficult non-conference schedules serving as the No. 1 reason why — but the RedHawks simply hit another gear when staring down MAC competition.
Miami overcame Northern Illinois, Akron, and Eastern Michigan — which combine for a 5-18 record — to produce its perfect start to MAC play. Western Michigan offers a step-up in competition, and this might be a critical tiebreaker needed to qualify for a third-straight MAC Championship Game.
The RedHawks struggled offensively to begin the year, posting a combined 17 points in road losses to Wisconsin and Rutgers. But after this 4-game win streak, it’s possible Miami has its most explosive offense yet during the Martin era. Former MAC champion quarterback Dequan Finn seamlessly fit in with an offense that replaced all 11 starters from the 2024 squad. Finn’s passing numbers may not jump off the page this year, but he’s running the ball exceptionally well and completing the occasional deep strike to propel the offense downfield.
Finn is the team leader with 332 rushing yards, but he shouldn’t be for long considering the rise of Jordan Brunson. With starter Kenny Tracy out for the year, Brunson is taking over the lead back role and thriving. He posted a career-high 122 yards last week vs. Eastern Michigan as the team generated 295 total in its best showing in years. D’Shawntae Jones and Josh Ringer provide depth at the position, making Miami a capable ground threat (currently 55th in FBS in rushing yards per game).
The RedHawks’ passing offense is very boom or bust. The team only completes 55.4 percent of looks, but one reason for this is the willingness to air it deep. Miami’s deep ball tendencies are showcased in Kam Perry’s season stat-line. The wide receiver leads the group with 514 yards despite only logging 18 receptions. That calculates to a 28.6 yards per catch, which is first in the FBS among all players with 10+ receptions.
Miami is usually renowned for high-level defensive play, but the RedHawks won in unusual shootout fashion last week. Eastern Michigan’s 30 points were the most surrendered in a Miami win since 2020, and the RedHawks allowed 40+ twice in non-conference play. Yet, they’ve also had games where everything clicked, shutting out both Akron and Northern Illinois for three of four quarters.
There are a slew of playmakers to watch on this unit. Up front is defensive end Adam Trick, who offers 5.5 sacks and 8.0 tackles for loss as the lead pass rusher. Outside linebacker Corban Hondru snagged his third interception of the season as one of the best coverage specialists in the conference, despite playing outside the secondary. But the secondary offers no shortage of talent as the safety tandem of Eli Blakey and Silas Walters combines for 12 pass breakups, three interceptions, and 91 tackles.
Prediction
While both teams generated over 40 points in their most recent outing, expect this MAC matchup to be of the lower-scoring variety, with the defenses winning more often than not. Western Michigan will generate heaps of pressure up front looking to stifle Miami’s developing run game and prevent the downfield routes from developing. Miami also excels with invading the backfield, and Western Michigan’s offense has faltered in the midst of adversity several times this year.
Turnovers could be abundant in this one with the amount of havoc both units cause. But to decide a winner, Miami’s offense has that extra gear of firepower, and the RedHawks will produce one extra sustained scoring drive to maintain perfection in the MAC.
Prediction: Miami (OH) 20, Western Michigan 13
