While chances of the West’s No. 1 seed are mighty slim for the Los Angeles Lakers, with the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder seemingly lording over the conference, the possibility of a top-four seed and hosting a first-round playoff series is assuredly on the table — despite some skepticism in mainstream circles.
Yet plenty of other teams are contending for one of those spots in what should be another busy Western Conference middle class this season. Mainstays like the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota
Timberwolves and Houston Rockets will once again be in the picture. Upstart, youth-laden teams like the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers are aspiring to assert themselves. The Golden State Warriors are old and highly flawed yet talented and still led by a top-10 player in Stephen Curry. The Phoenix Suns will hope to build on their surprising 2025-26 campaign.
To sort this all out, I’m ranking four teams I deem as Los Angeles’ grandest rivals for securing a top-four seed and home-court advantage this spring. Let’s get to it.
4. Utah Jazz
The Jazz are very young. They’ve won 39 games combined over the past two seasons. A top-four seed would be an incredibly dramatic improvement from last year’s 22-60, 15th-place finish out West.
But I am not particularly enamored with the Phoenix Suns, whose starting five feels incongruent (Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and Miles Bridges lack reliable shooting and high-feel decision-making), or Portland Trail Blazers, who have major unknowns in projecting what key players such as Ja Morant and Damian Lillard may look like and how they’ll mesh.
Plus, both teams are already bitten by the injury bug; Mark Williams is out indefinitely with a torn labrum while Shaedon Sharpe will be re-evaluated in roughly five months following a torn right meniscus (though this unfortunate setback could help declutter Portland’s guard room).
More than anything, this is a bet on the talent and offensive upside of Utah’s roster. Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson ooze shooting and should fit snugly into head coach Will Hardy’s offensive scheme rich with off-ball movement. Youngsters like Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski and Isaiah Collier can fill useful roles. Veteran wings in Josh Okogie and Josh Green will inject athletic and defensive juice into the roster. Jusuf Nurkić‘s screening, passing and rebounding are valuable commodities.
This team will be hard-pressed to vie for home-court advantage but is certainly the most likely of its play-in peers to rise above that tier.
3. Denver Nuggets
The steady erosion of a championship-winning core reached a nadir for Denver last season when the injury-riddled Timberwolves bounced them in the first round. During that series, the Nuggets required more secondary ball-handling, point-of-attack resistance and sprightly athleticism, the latter two of which Peyton Watson, if healthy and available, could’ve instilled. Now, Watson has departed for the Cleveland Cavaliers, leaving them light on the wings and defensively.
In an attempt to remedy some of those shortcomings this offseason, Denver added DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley III, Lonnie Walker IV and Alpha Diallo, all of which feel like fairly half-baked solutions. Despite the Nuggets’ drop-off from title contention, they remain a formidable foe out West.
Nikola Jokić churns out All-NBA First Team campaigns every year. Jamal Murray enjoyed a career-best season in 2025-26 and is just damn good. Aaron Gordon is perhaps the pinnacle of the league’s role player realm: not quite a star but much more than a mere starter. Cam Johnson needs to assert himself more offensively this year but is still a good player whose shooting and movement lather up the Nuggets’ attack.
Although their depth is pretty unproven and Christian Braun must bounce back from a disappointing fourth season, they’ve won at least 50 games and been a top-five offense the past four seasons. They will likely be right back in the mix for a top-four seed alongside Los Angeles.
2. Houston Rockets
Were this a ranking of each team’s postseason prospects, I’d consider dropping Houston down a spot because of my doubts about its playoff offense, even withFred VanVleet and Steven Adams back healthy. However, VanVleet should stymie some of those turnover woes while Adams can keep mashing on the offensive glass.
Regardless, the Rockets’ brash, athletically charged style of play on both ends is a winning recipe for the regular season. They’ve hosted a playoff series and won 52 games each of the last two years. I expect them to win a ton of games in 2026-27. VanVleet, Adams, Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Marcus Smart, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard is a tremendous top nine.
VanVleet’s return should slot Thompson and Sheppard into more favorable offensive roles and reduce Durant’s ball-handling load, treating him as a premier play-finisher rather than someone expected to initiate tons of possessions. Adams elevates Houston as an all-time great offensive rebounding group instead of simply a very good one. The Rockets are going to rack up wins this regular season and hope healthier playoff fortunes enable them to finally break through that first-round barrier.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
I do have some reservations about Minnesota. Donte DiVincenzo’s injury and the departures of Julius Randle and Naz Reid do leave it light on 3-point volume (and the point-of-attack depth is shaky), both in terms of those who can get them up and create them. LaMelo Ball satiates some of that need but cannot do so alone.
Beyond Ball, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert and Ayo Dosunmu, the rotation is thin and in flux. A few names from the Bones Hyland, Terrence Shannon Jr., Jaylen Clark, Joan Beringer and Jonathan Kuminga quintet must solidify themselves as trustworthy contributors, particularly in the frontcourt.
But man, those first five names are dynamite and I’m delighted by the Ball-Edwards backcourt. That’s two offensive infernos who will symbiotically operate together to mitigate each other’s flaws and ease life for the litany of surrounding play-finishers.
Maybe Ball and Edwards don’t gel immediately and Minnesota’s youthful depth doesn’t hit the ground running. The Timberwolves’ win-loss record will suffer as a result. I still believe in their core, though, and expect a big season ahead, one that should pose quite the challenge for Los Angeles to topple for home-court advantage.
You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.
