With the Nationals going on a losing streak at the worst possible time, and their playoff odds collapsing according to Fanduel, the team decided to sell at the deadline. We are going to take a look at the three major trades that were made and grade them. At the end, I am going to give out a final grade.
Young Bat for Young Arm early in trade season:
Over a week before the deadline, the Nats made an early splash. They traded breakout slugger Curtis Mead to the Red Sox for LHP Connelly Early. With the Nats having
an elite offense, but a poor pitching staff, the move made a lot of sense on paper. The Nats needed to find pitching however possible, and Early is a promising starter who projects as a mid-rotation guy.
This season Early posted a 3.44 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 91.2 innings as a rookie. His advanced metrics were not as strong with a FIP of 4.60, and xFIP of 4.12 and an xERA of 4.32. However, at just 24 years old, Early has plenty of time to improve and has already shown he can get results.
He will have to limit the home run ball, but if he can do that, he can be a force in the Nats rotation. Even as currently constructed, Early is the second best starter for the Nats now that Foster Griffin is gone. Hopefully he can get healthy soon and make starts by the end of the month.
The trade made a ton of sense, but the Nats have struggled offensively since Mead got shipped out. Mead was one of those slow heartbeat guys who could come through in the big moment. Since he has left, the Nats have struggled mightily to cash in with RISP. However, Mead himself got injured in his first game for the Red Sox, which changes the equation slightly.
Overall, I think this was a good trade and the process was sound. We seem to miss Mead even more than originally expected, but once Early is back on the mound, it will be easier to stomach the loss. Nats fans have been clamoring for reliable arms, and that is exactly what Early is, so I like the trade.
Grade: A-
Garcia shipped to the Bronx for an arsenal of arms:
The next big trade of deadline season came a day before the deadline itself. Luis Garcia Jr. was traded to the Yankees in the midst of a career year. The NL leader in slugging was shipped out for Yovanny Cruz, Jack Cebert, Ben Grable and Jake Bird.
Those first three names are the real prizes, and I get the approach from Paul Toboni. The idea here was to get as many arms as possible, particularly in the bullpen. From a pure value perspective, this is a bit light for a player of Garcia’s caliber, but the Yankees system matched up well with the Nats needs.
Cruz is a pitcher I really like and think will become the closer by the end of the year. He has some of the easiest gas you will ever see, and has a filthy slider he features. At 26, he took a massive leap in strikethrowing ability this season. Assuming that sticks, you have a plug and play high leverage weapon.
Cebert is the only starter coming back, and is a player I like but don’t love. The 24 year old seems like a fairly safe bet to be a back of the rotation starter. He has a deep pitch mix and gets whiffs at a good clip. Nothing he does is truly elite, but he does most things well. His fastball, secondaries and control are all good, not great. He can be a bit homer prone, but he gets a lot of strikeouts and does not walk many.
This all just reads like a boring number 4 starter who can give you 150 innings of average production. That is something the Nats need, but it is not a very sexy profile, especially for the headliner of a Garcia package. It is a useful piece though, and finding useful pitchers was a real theme of this deadline.
The last major piece is Ben Grable, who projects to be a leverage relief arm as soon as next season. He has a nutty fastball with good velocity and elite deception. Grable is pretty much a one trick pony, but in a bullpen role, that does not matter much if your trick is as good as his.
For me, this Garcia return is solid but not spectacular. Toboni went for useful pieces over upside. It is an approach that makes sense, though I think he jumped the shark on it in this next trade.
Grade: B/B-
Foster Griffin return underwhelms:
The first two trades are packages I can largely get behind. However, this Foster Griffin trade continues to confuse me. The Nats traded the All-Star lefty for Josh Hartle, Will Dion, Kendeglys Virguez and Nick Mitchell. With the deadline looming, it just feels like Toboni panicked and took whatever he could.
Again, there are some useful pieces here, but there is so little upside in this return. It is like the Garcia package, just with way less upside. Dion is a young reliever who has already made his debut. However, he projects as a middle reliever rather than a leverage arm. Josh Hartle is a back end starter type like Cebert but he projects as a 5 starter or depth arm rather than a 4. Virguez has big stuff, but is very raw. It just feels light.
Griffin is an arm who contributed so much for the Nats this year. Coming out of Japan, the crafty lefty was a revelation, posting a 3.06 ERA in 129.1 innings. He was also a great mentor to the young arms in the rotation like Cade Cavalli. To give that away for such a small return is not ideal.
To look at it from a more positive lens, Dion is a plug and play lefty reliever, which the Nats desperately need. Maybe Hartle can be better than expected if he gains a tick or two in velocity and Virguez is intriguing. Nick Mitchell also could be a 4th outfielder if things go right.
However, it just does not seem like enough for me. After the Garcia trade, I would have gone after a package with less players and more upside. Who knows if it was out there, but it does seem the Astros were pursuing him heavily. I am interested to know what that package looked like. It would not be a surprise if I liked what they had to offer more. The Nats addressed needs here but exposed themselves to such little upside.
Trade Grade: D
Overall, the Nats made the right call to sell in the end. This team had a chance to show Paul Toboni he needed to buy this week and failed miserably. Trading Mead was painful, but Early was a much needed mid rotation arm. Losing a leader and bat like Garcia also stings, but the Nats got pitching help that I like. Abimelec Ortiz also looks like a capable replacement.
The only trade I really did not love was the Griffin one. Sure, it is better than losing him for nothing, but not by a whole lot. Dion is the only guy I am confident will contribute in a big league role, but only as a middle reliever, a replaceable profile. I just wish they got at least someone to be excited about in that return.
In Paul Toboni’s first deadline, he did alright. Not moving CJ Abrams was a move I liked as well, though now he either needs to build around him or extend him. Toboni knew the priority was pitching, and went after it.
If anything, Toboni pigeon holed the returns a little too much. After the Garcia trade, I would not have gone for the same sort of pitching heavy quantity over quality return in the Griffin deal. However, Toboni was clearly all about building up the pitching depth in the organization at this deadline.
In that goal, he succeeded, but I also think he left stuff on the table as a result. Besides the Griffin trade, I liked the deadline, but that deal left a bad taste in my mouth. Overall, Toboni gets a passing grade, but not an extremely high one for me. In the end though, this is only one man’s opinion and it will take years to see how this deadline ages.
Overall Grade: C+
