The Rangers won the pennant with a surprise run in 2023, but missed the playoffs with a losing record, and are in danger of missing the playoffs again with a losing record going into this series. They are 5.5 games out of a post-season spot, a full 1.5 games behind the Royals. The Rangers had a terrific July, fueling playoff hopes, but have lost eight of their last ten to sink below .500.
Texas Rangers (62-63) vs. Kansas City Royals (63-61) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Rangers: 4.10 runs scored/game
(24th in MLB), 3.70 runs allowed/game (1st)
Royals: 3.80 runs scored/game (27th), 3.83 runs allowed/game (3rd)
Like the Royals, the Rangers have a terrific pitching staff, but a weak offense. They have some power, but are hitting just .232 as a team, fourth-worst in baseball. Adolis García leads the team with 64 RBI despite some struggles, but is out this series with an ankle injury.
Jake Burger is batting 9-for-21 (.429) with a home run since returning from a quad injury, but he injured his wrist on Sunday, putting his status in doubt. Corey Seager is hitting .267/.390/.457 against righties this year. Wyatt Langford is hitting .266/.345/.454 on the road.
Evan Carter is hitting just .207/.286/.354 in 27 games since the start of July. Josh Jung is 5-for-his-last-35 (.143). Josh Smith is hitting .216/.265/.234 against lefties. Joc Pederson has a wRC+ of 14, the fifth-worst for anyone with at least 190 plate appearances. The Rangers are one of the best defensive teams in baseball, with Langford and Marcus Semien standing out on defense, according to Outs Above Average. Rangers catchers have thrown out just 16 percent of stolen base attempts, third-worst in baseball.
Jack Leiter has a 2.95 ERA in his last eight starts and has won his last three decisions. His 97 mph fastball is one of the best heaters in baseball, with opponents hitting just .200 against it. He has a 4.60 ERA on the road.
Merrill Kelly has a 4.50 ERA in three starts since the Rangers acquired him from the Diamondbacks. Righties are hitting just .196/.255/.290 against him. Mike Yastrzemski has hit four home runs in 51 plate appearances against him in his career. Kelly has never faced the Royals in his seven-year career.
Jacob deGrom was an All-Star at age 37, and he is currently fifth in the league in ERA at 2.76, third in WHIP at 0.926, and tenth in strikeouts at 148. His fastball still runs at 97 mph and opponents are hitting just .146 against his changeup with a 40 percent whiff rate. He has faced the Royals four times, with his only loss coming in the 2015 World Series.
Patrick Corbin has bounced back from four awful seasons in Washington to be a productive starter in Texas. He was rocked in his last outing, giving up seven runs in 2.1 innings against the Blue Jays, and he has given up 16 runs in 14.2 innings over his last four starts. He has a 5.17 ERA on the road this year.
The Rangers bullpen has a 3.69 ERA, fifth-best in baseball. Phil Maton has taken over closing duties since being acquired from the Cardinals, but he has already blown two save, and has given up four runs in his last two outings. Former Royals farmhand Robert Garcia leads the team with nine saves, but he has given up eight runs in five innings this month. Shawn Armstrong has been their best reliever this year, with righties hitting just .115/.201/.156 against him.
The Royals have had a successful homestand, but this will be the first decent team they have played. The Rangers aren’t playing well lately, but they have a talented team with some good pitching that will be tough to beat. If the Royals want to get back into the playoff race, they’ll need to have a winning series.
