It isn’t often that a team wins 10 straight and so quickly thereafter loses six straight. But it’s been that kind of year for the Cubs. Every single year there is a stretch where the Cubs run into a number of elite pitchers and the bats go into a funk. To my eye, they’ve held up better this year than is years past. On top of four hits Friday, they drew five walks and were hit by three pitches. It’s not enough traffic, but it is traffic. This was one more starter that was no joke. The Cubs didn’t
get to him. But they did, as was very predictable, get to the Astros bullpen. But two runs against the Astros bullpen was nowhere near enough to overcome the four that Jameson Taillon allowed in just 4.2 innings.
I look around and I see some seats opening up on the Cubs bandwagon. There’s a ton of room on the Ian Happ bandwagon and a fair amount of room on the bandwagons for Alex Bregman and Seiya Suzuki. You’ll be shocked to know that I think all three will more or less play to the stats on the back of their baseball card. The Cubs will bounce. All of this is transient. I told you when the Cubs were going through their 20-3 stretch that they weren’t that good and I’ll tell you that during this 2-10 stretch that they aren’t that bad. All together, that’s a 22-13 stretch. That’s a 102-win pace. Guess what, this team isn’t that good either. Their 29-22 mark on the season? That’s a 92-win team. So that’s probably within a standard deviation for this team. I feel relatively comfortable saying that this was an insane placement of 29 wins over 51 games. But that 29 wins is within a game or two one way or the other of the reasonable expectations for this team.
One of the immortal truths of sports is that you are never as good as everything looks when you are clicking or as bas as you look when everything is misfiring. I think the biggest indicator of that is the plays this defense isn’t making. There weren’t any errors in this one, but there were definitely at least one or two plays that you kind of ordinarily expect the Cubs would make the play on. Most of these games, I feel like two or three plays here or there would flip the outcome. Heck, some of them are probably closer than that.
This, too, shall pass. I’m inclined to think the Cubs probably go something like 4-2 over the next six. I don’t think one game will exorcize all of the demons. It’s probably going to take at least two or three. But once this team gets back grooved in, they are going to start stacking series wins again. It’s only a matter of time and I’m guessing sooner than later. It’s definitely a tough watch right now, but I’m keeping the faith.
Three Positives:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong had a two-run homer and drew two walks. He made a couple of less than routine plays in the outfield and in every way appeared to shake off the rough week he’s had.
- Miguel Amaya had a single in his only plate appearance and was along for the ride on the homer.
- Jacob Webb’s inning of work came against the lower half, but he retired all three batters he faced, striking out two. The ERA is down to 2.91.
Game 51, May 22: Astros 4, Cubs 2 (29-22)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.174). 1-2, 2 BB, HR, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Alex Bregman (.084). 1-3, BB, HBP
- Sidekick: Ethan Roberts (.047). 2 IP, 7 BF, BB, 2 K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.225). 0-4
- Goat: Jameson Taillon (-.140). 4.2 IP, 23 BF, 8 H, BB, 4 ER, 5 K (L 2-4)
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.132). 0-4, BB, SB
WPA Play of the Game: With the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth inning, the Cubs were leading by two when Bryan King entered the game and got Nico Hoerner to bounce into a force play and end the inning. (.152)
Cubs Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a two-run homer with one out in the sixth to cut the Astros lead in half. (.122)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 50 Winner: Trent Thornton nudged out Nico Hoerner 39-33.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +16
- Michael Conforto +14
- Nico Hoerner +10.5
- Shōta Imanaga +10
- Trent Thornton +6
- Ryan Rolison -8
- Phil Maton -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -17.5
Current Win Pace: 92.11 wins
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set with the Astros. Colin Rea (4-2, 4.98, 47 IP) makes his eighth start of the season (11th appearance). Last time out, he allowed four runs on six hits and a walk in 4.2 IP of work. He hasn’t won since May 1. Much better at home (2.66 vs 6.75). Kai-Wei Teng (2-3, 2.61, 31 IP) gets his fourth start of the year (17th appearance overall). The 27-year-old Taiwanese import won his last start, allowing two hits and four walks over five innings, picking up the win. Not as good on the road (1.69 v 3.60).
This is another game that has the appearance that, if the Cubs wait out Teng, and keep the game close, they should be in good position to win.
Go Cubs!
