Like most of you, I’ve been trying to get a read on this version of Greg Gard’s Wisconsin Badgers, and now that we’re approaching mid-December, I’m ready to make a few informed predictions about where
this team may be headed.
A few ground rules: This isn’t literal. When I say, ‘Best Case’ or ‘Worst Case,’ I don’t mean the statistical best/worst outcome, like the entire starting five tearing an ACL or getting on a magic heater and winning the NCAA title game over Duke by 30. I deal with what I call “the 80 percent in the middle” and remove the top 10 percent and the lowest 10 percent.
Are you still with me? I hope so, because here we go.
Best Case
Here, the rotation gels really well, with players like Nick Boyd and John Blackwell settling into optimal roles, while secondary scoring settles in with consistency. The team stays healthy, and the buy-in to a high-scoring system that still values solid defense improves from the first 1/3 of the campaign. And, most games, their play away from home catches up to how they look at the Kohl Center.
Finally, younger pieces like Austin Rapp and the surprising Aleksas Bieliauskas complement the team and continue to grow into their roles, even if that means Rapp coming off the bench.
This squad has a top four in the Big Ten, a Sweet Sixteen kind of floor, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them sneak into the Elite Eight after making a real run at a regular-season conference title.
Worst Case
I take no joy in doing these scenarios, but it’s part of the job.
In this unfortunate path, the squad deals with tough injuries, the scoring Alpha Dog thing becomes an issue, and the defense doesn’t reach the level it needs to in order to be a factor in an absolutely stacked Big Ten.
While the Badgers still have enough to make it to the NCAA Tournament, the margin ends up small, and their stay is short, stoking the embers of the “Gard Can’t Win in March” fire.
Here, I see a 7th-10th place conference finish and a 10-seed in March Madness.
Most Likely Case
The good news is that this one looks more like the Best Case than it does the Worst Case. The team has some ups and downs, but the various roles become better defined and embraced, while the defense looks more solid than it has been early in the season.
While the scoring load falls a bit too heavily on Blackwell and Boyd from time to time, consistent, complementary production frequently fills in from guys like Nolan Winter and Andrew Rohde, and the team is rarely not competitive.
They don’t have quite enough to make a serious run at Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State for a Big Ten title, but they secure a lot of impressive wins against a daunting schedule.
Gard’s boys finish between 3rd and 7th in the Big Ten and, at long last, reach the second weekend of March Madness, making the season a success.
