The Atlanta Braves are coming off their first sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia since 2016 while also leading MLB in run differential, total runs scored, team ERA, and hold the best division lead in MLB. The start for the Braves could not have been much better, especially considering they are down half their rotation, their starting SS, and Sean Murphy.
Speaking of good starts, Bryce Elder is back to All-Star form this season with his sterling ERA of 0.77 and will be taking the mound to face the second
place (tied) Washington Nationals. The Nationals have a losing record but some could argue that they have been better than expected, especially offensively. Only the Dodgers and Braves are scoring more runs per game than the Nationals are this season. 5.50 runs per game is an elite offense, the only problem is that the Nats are also allowing the most runs per game tied with the Astros at 6.09.
With the level of runs that the Nats have been scoring it will be interesting to see if Elder can hold them at bay. It does not take much research to know that it is highly likely that Elder will not be able to sustain a sub one ERA, but his expected ERA (xERA) of 2.30 is easily the best of his career. In fact, his Statcast numbers look the best they ever have too.
Now, you always want to take early season Statcast numbers with a grain of salt because they can change drastically as the season progresses, but the point is that Elder has not just been lucky this season, he has also pitched very well. Good strikeout and walk rates to go along with a good groundball rate and an elite barrel percentage is a mix for solid results, which has clearly happened.
It will be fun this evening to see how the Nats hitters will do against this new and improved Elder, because in the past they have absolutely wrecked him. Of the seven hitters on the roster who have faced him before, five of them have an OPS .800 or higher. CJ Abrams has a .905 OPS in fifteen at-bats, and Luis García Jr. has a 1.227 in eleven at-bats. Keep an eye on rising star James Wood as he is the only player to hit a HR off of Elder in his six at-bats against him.
Jake Irvin will be taking the mound for the Nats and he has had the opposite results of Elder. He currently sits at an ERA of 6.16, and it has not been entirely bad luck either. His xERA of 5.07 shows he has likely had some misfortune, but even if he actual ERA matched his xERA, it would not be a result to be proud of. The Braves currently have the fourth best walk rate in MLB and Irvin’s 12.8 percent walk rate is in the bottom 24.0 percent of the league. Walks could be the key to success for the Braves’ offense tonight.
Michael Harris will be the offensive player to watch this evening for the Braves. Not only is he red hot right now, but he has more at-bats than anyone else against Irvin with eighteen. He has a .389 average and .950 OPS in those at-bats as well. Matt Olson has the second most at-bats with sixteen but has struggled to a .188 average and .610 OPS against Irvin.
Two of the top three offenses offenses meet tonight, so on paper it should come down to which pitching staff can perform the best. First pitch is at 6:45 EDT.
Game Info
Game Time: Monday, April 20th, 6:45 pm EDT
Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC.
Watch: BravesVision
Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
