This will be the third meeting between the Lions and Panthers in the Dan Campbell era and the first in primetime. Neither of the previous two matchups was decided by fewer than two touchdowns, and Dave Canales, hosting his first primetime game at the helm, will already be the third different Panthers head coach Detroit has faced during that span.
The Panthers may sit at only 1-2, with losses to the Bears and Browns, but they’ve seen some improved play early from to-be-determined franchise quarterback
Bryce Young, Jameson Williams’ former quarterback at Alabama, and cannot be taken lightly. After all, Carolina has more recently made the postseason and won its division than Detroit.
The Panthers have finished top five in total free-agent guarantees handed out to defensive players in each of the past two offseasons, committing more than $225 million guaranteed to defensive additions over that span. Yet, despite all that spending and being under the siege of defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, they’re still playing like a bottom-10 unit.
The Lions, already playing their second road primetime game of the season, will look to reverse their fortunes from Buffalo and potentially put together their most complete performance yet during Alim McNeill’s homecoming.
While some rain is expected, much of the analysis consists of passing statistics given the tendencies and personnel of both teams. With that, let’s get into my four key stats and matchups for Sunday night’s game.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports, or Pro Football Focus.
Cheaper By the Dozen
The Panthers, in Year 4 of Young, made the switch from head coach Dave Canales to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik as the primary offensive playcaller and have placed more of the load on Young’s shoulders. They’ve had success against the Bears and Falcons defenses but struggled against the Browns. Through three weeks, the Panthers’ 67.9% pass rate ranks third-highest in the league, with Young leading the NFL at 313 passing yards per game. He’ll face a Lions pass defense that ranks dead last with 299.3 passing yards allowed per game, 27th at +0.16 EPA/pass, and 24th with a 48.5% pass success rate allowed.
The Panthers have had even more passing success when they go to 12-personnel, mixing in combinations of Darren Waller, Tommy Tremble, and Mitchell Evans to go along with Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker at wide receiver.
This season, passing from 12-personnel, the Panthers are 20-for-27, a 74.1% completion percentage (8th), for 317 passing yards (2nd) and 11.7 yards per attempt (2nd), with strong analytical metrics as well: a 10.76-yard aDOT (5th), 63.0% success rate (4th), and +0.35 EPA/play (7th). The Panthers’ pressure rate allowed, which overall sits at 52.6% and ranks last in the NFL, drops to only 40.7% (20th) when passing out of 12-personnel. It’s been an added element that Idzik has brought to their offense this season after they didn’t have nearly as much reliance or success with it last year.
The most common targets for Young when passing from 12-personnel have been Tremble (8 targets, 6 catches, 61 receiving yards), Coker (4 targets, 4 catches, 106 receiving yards), McMillan (5 targets, 3 catches, 62 receiving yards), and Waller (3 targets, 3 catches, 43 receiving yards). It’s a potent condensed passing attack for the Detroit Lions to defend.
The Lions defense, which has prided itself on its preference for base defense throughout the majority of the Dan Campbell era—running more of it than anyone last season—has been worked as a pass defense this season, both overall and specifically against 12-personnel.
The Lions pass defense has been getting shredded against 12-personnel:
- 33 dropbacks (30th, 3rd most)
- 29 pass attempts (30th)
- 21 completions (31st)
- 291 passing yards (32nd)
- 72.4% completion percentage (26th)
- 8.8 yards per pass (25th)
- 4 passing touchdowns (t-31st)
- 8.41 aDOT (21st)
- 55.2% passing success rate (19th)
- +0.38 EPA per play (25th)
Teams have given the Lions a heavy dose of 12-personnel, and they haven’t had answers, all while the Lions’ pressure rate and sack rate are also lower against 12-personnel than they are overall. Kelvin Sheppard will need to equip his defense with better answers against the Panthers. And while the Lions’ cornerback group has been much maligned, having success in coverage against Carolina’s 12-personnel passing attack will also be reliant on improvement from the spine of the defense, with linebackers Jack Campbell, Derrick Barnes, and perhaps Trevor Nowaske or Malcolm Rodriguez, along with safeties Chuck Clark and Christian Izien, needing to execute better.
Young and the Restless
The one area where the Panthers’ passing offense has faltered, as mentioned in the last section, is allowing a league-high pressure rate. Much like Jared Goff and his elite-level processing skills have continued to pick apart the blitz, Bryce Young has found a higher level of success against the blitz so far this season. When defenses don’t bring those additional pass rushers, however, that’s where the Panthers’ prowling passing attack has been declawed.
The Panthers’ yards per pass drop from 8.3 (4th) against the blitz to 6.1 (18th) with no blitz, while their EPA per pass plummets from +0.35 (6th) to -0.09 (21st). Not only does the passing production drop, but the heat applied to Young actually increases. Against the blitz, the Panthers’ pressure rate is 39.5% (t-11th) and their sack rate is only 2.3% (5th). With no blitz, their pressure rate climbs to 45.3% (32nd), while their sack rate jumps to 7.0% (21st). Young and the offense operate more efficiently when he’s sped up and can attack the vacancies left behind in coverage.
The Detroit Lions’ defensive front has shown some teeth early this season, generating a 36.8% pressure rate (3rd) and 6.9% sack rate (12th) when not blitzing. The Panthers were already dealing with backup offensive tackles in Rasheed Walker and rookie Monroe Freeling, and with the injury to left guard Damien Lewis, they’ll be left to play 2024 UDFA Corey Bullock and his 55 career offensive snaps in the first start of his career.
It could be the perfect recipe for disaster for Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, and company to maul the Panthers and leave their passing offense to die in the wilderness—if the coverage behind them can hold up.
It’ll also be on Kelvin Sheppard to calculatedly call off the dogs, rush four, and ask questions later.
Lion Kings of the Jungle
The Carolina Panthers are playing light boxes (six or fewer defenders) on a league-high 40.2% of plays. While defensive tackle Derrick Brown is an imposing player in the middle, the Panthers have been leaving prized free-agent signing Devin Lloyd and Bobby Okereke—a player exposed by Jahmyr Gibbs against the Giants last season—out to dry in the run defense this season. They’re also relying on undrafted rookie Aaron Hall and fellow rookie Lee Hunter as the two defensive tackles trying to hold down the fort next to Brown on the interior.
Against Man/Duo run concepts, the Panthers have allowed 132 rushing yards on 16 carries and rank league-worst in all of the following: 8.3 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, and +0.45 EPA per rush.
Meanwhile, on such runs this season, Gibbs has 12 carries for 61 rushing yards (5.1 yards per carry) and a rushing touchdown, along with an impressive 58.3% rushing success rate. Look for the Lions to go big-on-big, take advantage of the light boxes, and allow Penei Sewell and the re-engineered Detroit People Movers to mash bodies and control the line of scrimmage, giving Gibbs downhill running room all night long.
You’ve Got Air Mail
Even with the weather forecast, the Detroit Lions have a balanced offense, and with the Carolina Panthers without stud cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, they’ll look to take advantage of journeyman Akayleb Evans and rookie Will Lee III filling in.
Teams have only tested the Panthers on 12 deep throws of 20-plus air yards (second fewest) in the NFL, but that should change with the backups in at corner. It’s also worth keeping in mind that in Week 2, the Panthers faced Cooper Rush and rookie UDFA Jack Strand at quarterback. Still, the Panthers are blitzing at a higher-than-expected top-10 rate, and their five deep completions allowed have been costly, resulting in +0.69 EPA per pass (23rd) and 29.8 yards per completion.
Will Lee III has also been beaten deep twice this year, including a 47-yard completion to Rome Odunze on a coverage bust, but also on a badly underthrown ball from Cooper Rush where Lee bit on a double move. I would expect the Lions to strike when the Panthers blitz, particularly if they continue to struggle to generate pressure and leave less support for their unproven corners. When the opportunity is right, Detroit should have a chance to dial up a shot play or two to Jameson Williams. He’s due after all.
