The Guardians control their own destiny to win the AL Central or to secure an AL wildcard berth as they approach their last six games. What might manager Stephen Vogt do to increase their odds at completing this incredible comeback?
As usual, I offer the caveat that Stephen Vogt has forgotten more baseball than I’ll ever know. He is a great manager, as this season has shown. From where I am sitting, these moves below make sense, but I recognize that he has way more information than I do. With that said,
here are four keys that I think using to guide Vogt’s decision-making in the upcoming Tigers’ series will enhance the Guardians’ chances of winning.
Key One: DH Kyle Manzardo, put George Valera in Right Field, Petey Halpin in Center Field and CJ Kayfus at first base vs. RHP
Kyle Manzardo is not a good first baseman. So, as much as possible, he needs to be your DH. George Valera has a 133 wRC+ and needs to be in the lineup. Angel Martinez has a 51 wRC+ against RHP and is not a good defensive centerfielder; Petey Halpin had a .778 OPS against RHP in Double-A and Triple-A this season. Kayfus has a 106 wRC+ vs. RHP this season.
Key Two: DH David Fry, put Noel or Manzardo at 1B, CJ Kayfus in Right Field, Angel Martinez in Center Field vs. LHP
I don’t believe that Manzardo needs to be platooned… however, I do believe he is, as I stated, a bad first baseman. It’s pretty clear that Noel is a good defensive first baseman, and, as seen against Tarik Skubal the first time, he always has a shot at running into one as a hitter. I think that’s probably enough to give him a slight edge for a start. The bigger question might be DHing Manzardo over Fry, but I do think this is where you’ve got to trust David Fry to put up good AB’s against LHP and get you where you need to go. Kayfus has not yet performed against lefties, but he had fairly even splits against LHP in the minors and I’d like to see him get that chance. Angel Martinez has a 122 wRC+ against LHP and needs to get chances to get to them as often as possible.
I do think an acceptable alternative is Noel in right field and Manzardo at first, but, with runs likely at a premium, I do think it is imperative to prioritize run prevention. Does Noel in RF over Kayfus save your more runs than Noel at first over Manzardo? I’m not sure, but making that determination should be a significant factor here. Defense has been carrying this team, with pitching, over the past month. Continue to prioritize that.
Key Three: Don’t Be Afraid to Lean on Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Jakob Junis, Matt Festa, and, yes, Zak Kent in relief
The Tigers have a 115 wRC+ against LHP this year and a 99 wRC+ vs. RHP, but they have a 135 wRC+ vs. lefty relievers and an 86 wRC+ vs. right-handed relievers. Yes, having Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin, Kolby Allard and, if necessary, Joey Cantillo to deploy against Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene and Parker Meadows in the right scenario will be important. But, the numbers tell us we want the bulk of these outs to be on the shoulders of our reliable right-handers. Kent has looked excellent in relief since his return, so far, and I would not be opposed to letting him work his way through the bottom of the Tigers’ order in the right spot. I am a huge Festa defender, but, just to be clear, Junis is a better pitcher and should be used as the right-handed fireman over Festa in this series. Give Festa clean innings to work with. It’s going to be key to lock down any leads and the numbers tell us that our right-handed hurlers are the ones to do it, here.
Key Four: Don’t Be Too Quick to Pinch-Hit
Expect AJ Hinch to try to force Vogt (in the non-Skubal games) to go to his bench early, likely to make sure that the team sees as many AB’s from Fry, Noel and Martinez. Why? Because it is far more preferable to have those three guys take the lionshare of AB’s over Manzardo, Kayfus and Valera, especially against the most common pitcher they will face – RHP. Don’t fall for that trap. Save your bench plays against LHP for the 6th inning and later against lefties, as much as possible.
So, there you have it… some matchups and strategies to watch. Now, when Kyle Manzardo starts every game at first base, Matt Festa gets all the fireman opportunities and Sabrowski, Allard and Herrin carry the bullpen this series and the Guardians win, you’ll know why I’m the blogger and Vogt is the manager.
