I don’t know if it’s just me, but I’ve been kind of checked out during this series. The Braves’ 2026 season has been very exciting so far, but there’s just been a confluence of events that have sort of made me pay less attention than to any other set so far this season:
- The start time is kind of weird and runs right across me putting the kids to bed. The pitch clock and other aspects of games this season have made it so games were either starting late (West Coast trip games) or largely decided by kid-bedtime, these scheduled 7:40 pm ET starts mean the meat of the action happens then.
- The pitching management in the first game was just as clear of a, “Yeah, we don’t really care about this game” signal as possible.
- Yesterday’s game was just a low-energy, nothing carries meh-fest.
Anyway, put all that together, and the Braves are on the brink of getting swept on Chicago’s South Side… unless they can salvage a game. It’s a weird position for this team — this is only their third series loss, the first time they’ve
lost the first two games of a series, and only their fourth time they’ve lost consecutive games (including a three-game losing streak in early April, which is their longest of the year so far).
But, standing in the way of the potentially-added excitement of avoiding a sweep by the White Sox, of all teams… is the fact that Martin Perez is starting.
As I’ve noted before, Martin Perez just kind of does something to my perception and ability to enjoy a game. I can’t really put my finger on what it is, exactly, it’s more je ne sais quoi (or, in this case, the opposite of that — is there a similar concept but with a negative connotation?) To be clear, it’s not even that I think Perez is especially bad, or bound to implode; his line on the season is 73/98/96 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) which is slightly better than average, and as a starter over his last four turns in the rotation, he’s at 105/94/99. A league-average starter performance for very cheap isn’t anything to sneeze at, but I’m not proverbially sneezing because of the outcome. It’s just…
Perez mainly throws three pitches, sprinkling in another two here and there. The movement profile on every pitch is poor. For example, he throws a slower changeup than most guys (because he throws slower than most guys), yet it somehow has less drop than even an average changeup. You’d think that maybe with a lack of stuff, there’s a command improvement, but Perez isn’t really hitting targets well, either. You can go to Baseball Savant and see his pitch plots — there’s nothing pinpoint there except for the curve, which he throws less than ten percent of the time. The cutter is a get-me-over mess and his sinker is largely thrown middle-middle. He doesn’t get much chase, he doesn’t get many whiffs, but he also doesn’t really avoid walks. As I’ve described before, his starts feel like plinko or pachinko — what happens is ultimately just up to whether the balls guys hit off him happen to be squared up and/or towards a defender. Sometimes they are, and the team is fine, even if he has poor peripherals on the day. Sometimes, they aren’t, and woof.
Perez actually spent a while throwing the ball for the White Sox last year, so he’ll be facing some old teammates. He didn’t have a very remarkable 2025, as he made just 11 appearances (10 starts), with a very fortunate 86/99/118 line. He went down in mid-April with a flexor strain, missed most of the season, and then returned for about a month in mid-August before he was shut down with a shoulder strain in mid-September.
The White Sox haven’t announced a starter. They might be doing another opener-esque thing. If so, Anthony Kay may be the starter. If he is, it’ll be kind of a mixed bag for the Braves. Kay hasn’t pitched all that well after a two-year stint in Japan (105/128/120), but the Braves also haven’t hit well at all when another team has used an opener against them. Kay was crushed by the Phillies in his last start, snapping a streak of three straight where he had allowed exactly one run… even without particularly good peripherals in the process. The White Sox used an opener for Kay a couple of times in April and then seemingly abandoned the idea, but maybe they’re trying it again after seeing how the Braves didn’t really do anything against Erick Fedde in the opener of this game. In any case, given the Perez pachinko, it’ll be up to the Braves to snap out of their offensive doldrums to avoid the sweep.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Thursday, June 11, 7:40 p.m. EDT
Location: Rate Field, Chicago, IL
TV: BravesVision
Streaming: MLB.tv
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
