This is part three of a series I started the week before last. Part 1 surveyed the current Jays roster, while Part 2 looked at the team’s financial situation and prospect capital. Since I wrote, they’ve
signed Cody Ponce to add depth to the rotation and outrighted Yariel Rodriguez off the 40-man roster . I’d hoped to have this wrapped up before the winter meetings, but the flu had other plans so we’re picking it up today.
Before getting into the moves I want to make, I thought I’d go over some things I decided not to do and explain myself.
- I’m not trading Anthony Santander. I really considered this one. He was awful last season, and there are other ways I’d like to allocate his $14.7m luxury tax hit. The problem is, there are 29 other teams who’d also much rather use that money elsewhere. Santander’s value is at an absolute nadir right now, and the prospect cost to get out from under even a significant fraction of his contract would be prohibitive. It would probably have to include Arjun Nimmala or Jojo Parker, and I’m not going there. Santander has been a very good hitter four of the last six years, and he’s still just 31. I think hoping he gets healthy and has a bounce back is the best of a not great set of options.
- I’m also not trading Jose Berrios. The reasoning is basically similar. Berrios has less negative trade value than Santander, but he’s still owed $67m in cash and carries a $18.7m luxury tax number for the next three seasons. With a strong track record but coming off a couple of down years and an injury he comps to players like Sean Manaea in 2024 or Frankie Montas last winter, who got two years and $28 and $34m respectively. Conservatively, then, his deal is $30-35m underwater. Meanwhile, without him the sixth starter spot is down to Eric Lauer (capable but needed in the bullpen), praying for a Bowden Francis bounce back, and hoping Jake Bloss gets healthy soon. I think it makes more sense to hold onto an overpaid but still likely useful Berrios than to spend a bunch of money to free up less than $10m a year in luxury tax space. A starter will get hurt. A starter always gets hurt.
- Based on the two items above, I’m out of the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes. He’d look great in a Jays uniform, but there’s just no way to fit him into my budget target now without trading players who are needed contributors. Of course, it’s possible the real Blue Jays blow past my self-imposed limit. There’s a good case that they’re able and should be willing. But based on past behaviour I don’t expect it, and honestly “I would simply spend unlimited money on every good player” isn’t a useful or interesting way to do this exercise. There’s also the risk. Tucker is a reliably very, very good hitter, but he’s only had one half-season where he’s produced at an elite level. He’s also missed meaningful time in three of the last 5 seasons. Because of that, he’s never quite produced a five win season. He’ll command a huge deal and deserve it, but to me he’s not so enticing that I have to blow up my budget for him.
- Similarly, I’m not in on Alex Bregman. Bregman felt like he merited a mention because third base is a potential area for addition. The problem is that as an older player coming off a good year, he’s probably looking for a high AAV on a shorter deal compared to other top hitters on the market. That’s not an ideal fit for a roster that’s slightly cash strapped. He merited serious consideration but I ultimately decided that a younger player who might command a similar total but over more years was a better fit. Also, I don’t like his face.
- Finally, No Edwin Diaz. I wanted to address this one because he was one of the players most of the readers wanted the Jays to sign based on our free agent poll. I get it, we’re all scarred by the bullpen’s struggles in the World Series. Diaz is phenomenal. He’s also turning 32 with a major injury on the books, and his fastball is down two ticks from his peak. Stuff models think he’s slipped from otherworldly to merely nasty. The contracts that have been publicly mooted for him all assume that he’ll remain the top closer in the game or something close. I’m not so sure, and I’m not committing #3 starter money to find out. I also suspect the real front office agrees with me, seeing as they’ve never spent more than $10m a year on a relief pitcher.
With that out of the way, on to the moves I would actually make. I’ll deal with the big one, the Jays’ choice of top offensive free agents, tomorrow. For now, I wanted to look at how they might clear enough space to afford one. They currently have $278.5m assigned against the 2026 luxury tax, giving me only $5.5 million under my budget target.
First up, I’ll trade Myles Straw (including the $1m the Guardians are paying towards his 2026 salary and the $1.75m they’re sending to cover his buy-out) and Landen Maroudis to the Mets for a player to be named later. Straw was quietly an excellent pickup last winter, playing clutch defence and hitting just a little bit in the fourth outfielder role. The Jays just have better things to do with the $6m of his 2026 salary they’re responsible for, though. Joey Loperfido can fill in in centre. The Mets, meanwhile, don’t care about money, need some centre field depth, and could use a flier prospect as much as anyone.
Second, I’ll send Yariel Rodriguez and $9m over three years to the Texas Rangers and Yimi Garcia plus Jonatan Clase to the San Francisco Giants, both for a bucket of balls. This is just more space clearing. Rodriguez went through waivers unclaimed, but he’s still a live arm with experience getting MLB outs. I’m hoping that for half price, a team with some money in bullpen need will take a flier. Yimi is potentially set for a bounce back, but that’s uncertain and he’s expensive. I’m hoping that a rich team in a bit of a rebuild like the Giants will take him on for a prospect (and they could use some CF depth) and the potential to flip him at the deadline if he does bounce back.
All in, those moves free up $17.3m against the luxury tax, giving me $22.8m a year to work with. Tomorrow, I’ll talk through how I want to use it.
