In case you may have enjoyed seeing the Atlanta Braves take a sojourn into the American League by taking on four AL opponents across their first 16 games, I regret to inform you that the interleague tour is coming to an end. As a matter of fact, the next 13 games will not only be nothing but National League games for the Braves — they’ll be NL East games as well. This week will see the Braves take on the Marlins and the Phillies for a pair of three-game series and that’ll be a prelude to Atlanta visiting
D.C. for four games next week and then returning home to face the Phillies for the second weekend in a row.
Atlanta’s divisional rivals may be annoying in their own unique and various ways but where some may see annoyance, others may see oportunity. This week (and this 13-game NL East gauntlet) serves as a golden opportunity for the Braves to make some early hay in the division. If they can keep their series-winning streak going against their closest foes in baseball then that could send an early statement to the rest of the division that this Braves team is not to be trifled with in the least bit.
It’s not going to be easy, though — it rarely is when it comes to this particular division. Now it’s time to see just what’s in store for Atlanta for the next six games.
April 13-15: Miami Marlins
Current Record: 8-8 Projected Record (via FanGraphs): 76-86
You can only play who’s on your schedule and as far as the first six games of the season go, the Marlins couldn’t have asked for a better pair of foes to deal with to get the season going. They swept the Rockies out of Miami in exciting fashion and then wrapped up their season-opening homestand with a series win over the White Sox. A win over the Rockies counts just as much in the standings as a win over the Dodgers so the Marlins deserve credit for taking care of business to get the season started.
Ever since then, it’s been tough sailing for Miami. They dropped a series against the Yankees in the Bronx, split a four-game home series against the Reds and then got swept out of Detroit on their way to the Atlanta metro area to face the Braves. During this 3-7 10-game stretch, the Marlins have been the third-worst hitting team in the National League with a team wRC+ of 83 and they’ve struggled on the mound as well with a bottom-five rating in ERA- in the NL and bottom-three rating in FIP- on the Senior Circuit as well.
So yeah, the Marlins are coming into this series limping and this is likely a bad time for them to be limping into Cobb County in particular. Over the past two seasons, the Braves are 16-4 at home against the Marlins and are 53-22 against Miami at Truist Park across the 75 games that these two teams have played against each other at the friendly confines within The Battery. The Marlins also won’t be able to trot out Sandy Alcantara out for this series, either. Meanwhile, starter Eury Pérez has had nearly nothing but bad times against the Braves, Chris Paddack has been inconsistent to start the season and that means that Max Meyer is looking like their best option during this series.
Meanwhile, the trio of Grant Holmes, Reynaldo López and Bryce Elder will be tasked with making sure that the Marlins continue to collectively scuffle at the plate. Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Owen Caissie and Liam Hicks have each been swinging the bat pretty well to start off but again, they’ve collectively fallen into a bit of a funk as of late and hopefully Atlanta’s pitching staff will make sure that this funk lasts for at least the next few days.
April 17-19: Philadelphia Phillies
Current Record: 7-8 Projected Record: 87-74
Once the Braves get done with the Marlins, it’s time for a trip to Peter Moylan’s f a v o r i t e ballpark: Citzens Bank Park in Philadelphia! That’s right, it’s time to renew hostilities with the ever-present Phillies and their totally-calm-and-reasonable fans. If there’s anything to look forward to, it’s that this seems like a decent enough time for the Braves to be running into the Phillies. Depending on how their midweek series against the Cubs goes, they could be entering the weekend series with Atlanta either bereft of confidence and desperate to get the season on track or feeling like they could be in position to make a statement of their own against the Braves.
If the Phillies are going to be a real threat then their lineup will have to get going. They’re 2-5 in their last seven games and this includes three losses where they scored one or fewer runs. In fact, they got shut out twice in a row by the Giants and that was wild considering that San Francisco has struggled to keep everybody else they’ve played quiet at the plate. Of course, the usual suspects like J.T Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are going to show up for this series and Justin Crawford is smacking the ball around as well. However, they haven’t gotten a lot from guys like Adolis Garcia, Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm and Trea Turner. It would be huge if those guys continued to remain cold at the plate once the Braves get a hold of them.
The one thing that’s been keeping the Phillies afloat so far is their pitching staff. Cristopher Sánchez has been lights-out for Philadelphia so far and the Braves will likely have to figure out a way to deal with him in the series finale on Sunday Night Baseball. Atlanta will get to avoid Aaron Nola and Jesús Luzardo, though as I’d imagine that they’d much rather take their chances against Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter — though Painter has also been on a bit of a roll to start this season.
The Phillies could also be due for some type of regression or progression to the mean when it comes to their ERA-/FIP- split. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has an ERA- of 105 but a FIP- of 66. The Braves can actually relate to this in the opposite direction, as their pitching staff has a collective ERA- of 61 with a FIP- of 90. It’ll be very interesting to see which of these numbers offers the true vision of what these two pitching staffs are but for now, I wouldn’t be shocked if this series in Philadelphia came down to whoever can come up with the biggest hits in the high-leverage moments that are sure to come between these two divisional foes.
