The Miami Hurricanes (10-2) hit the road to College Station, TX to face the Texas A&M Aggies (11-1) in round one of the College Football Playoff. We’ve gone over a lot of this game including a look at TAMU
at Notre Dame in Part 1 of the series.
The Doppler
As an aside, the Fighting Irish are 1st in the country in points per play with 0.664 PPP. Texas A&M is 13th at 0.512 and Miami is 18th at 0.483. The Hurricanes defense is 7th in FBS in opponent PPP with 0.226 while A&m’s defense is 60th at 0.361 OPPP.
The Aggies are 14th in FBS in scoring offense while putting up 36.3 points per contest. The Hurricanes defense is 6th in FBS allowing only 13.8 PPG.
The Aggies defense is 41st in FBS allowing 21.9 PPG, while the ‘Canes offense is 20th in PPG scoring 31.1 PPG.
On the season, Marcel Reed averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt with 25 TD’s and 10 INT’s. Reed also averaged 5.2 yards per carry (including sacks) and scored six TD’s on the ground.
Sophomore RB Rueben Owens teamed up with Le’Veon Moss in ‘25. The duo scored 11 times while averaging 5.5 and 5.6 yards per carry, respectively.
WR KC Concepcion caught nine TD passes on 15.5 yards per catch. He also ran one TD as a All-Purpose player who returned two punts for TD’s, too. Mario Carver caught four TD’s on 15.9 yards per catch.
Cashius Howell, a 6-4 edge player, led the Aggies in TFL’s and sacks with 14 TFL’s and 11.5 sacks. The Aggies only have three interceptions on the entire season so Beck can rest easy he shouldn’t get Louisville’d in College Station. Howell was 2nd on the team in PBU’s with six, but CB Will Lee III led the team with seven.
Kickers Randy Bond and Jared Zirkel combined to miss nine FG’s this season including two misses for Zirkel in the final two games of the season.
The Film
For reference, Texas finished 9-3 and 22nd in the country per SP+. The Longhorns were 38th on offense, 20th on defense and 33rd in kicking. The Longhorns beat the Aggies 27-17 on rivalry weekend at DK Royal in Austin, TX.
On money downs, the Aggies were only 5-of-15 on offense while Texas finished 4-of-13. The Aggies had two turnovers compared to the Longhorns not turning the ball over at all. UT was flagged for 78-yards in penalties while A&M was flagged for only 62-yards.
Zirkel missed one FG attempt of two while Mason Shipley made both of his attempts.
THE AGGIES OFFENSE
Reed averaged only 5.6 yards per pass attempt and threw two INT’s with zero TD’s against Texas. Reed did add 71 yards on the ground for 5.9 per carry. He was sacked once.
Owens averaged only 3.7 yards per carry but EJ Smith added 6.8 yards per rush on four carries with a TD. The Longhorns picked up two TFL’s against the Aggies.
Reed hit seven different receivers, but only two for double-digit yards per catch numbers. The Longhorns smothered the Aggies WR’s with two PBU’s as well.
Above– Keep an eye on Reed sitting on his 2nd hitch in the end zone. Dangerous territory to go through three full reads on a progression against Texas or Miami.
Above– I hate the design of this screen considering the LB’s squat more than chase. Why not get space in a more 2-on-1 by design vs. that CB and an OT or TE with the WR Carver? But Concepcion on the motion draws a lot of eyes.
Above– Reed has a strong arm and he’s a risk taker. That’s double coverage and he jams it in. Concepcion breaks both tackles for an explosive but this is how you can bait Reed into INT’s.
Above– Play-Action drags up the LB’s and overhangs. It’s a Post-Wheel like we saw against ND from TAMU.
Above– Wide open WR but the ball is bad, WR makes a crazy catch but that slows the momentum down.
Above– This is a post-snap ‘now’ RPO up top. Reed sees 3-over-3 so he gives to the RB. The RB will have pullers helping in a pin-pull scheme.
Above– The DB is the force player. His job is to stay outside and push this play back in to help. The issue is 1- no help shows and 2- he leaves his feet instead of moving his feet for a better striking position.
Above– Now you have jet sweep in the gun with the RB as the lead blocker. Owens the RB lights the defender up and this is an easy score for Concepcion. This is the type of team work you’ll need to win in the playoff.
Above– Reed extends the play and keeps his eyes downfield. He’s looking to throw this ball and not just run. Remember that space creates time and time creates plays.
Above– Miami DB’s have had a tendency to lose track of their man once the QB creates space and time for himself.
Above– The OL does a great job of passing the DL off and working to the LB who crashes the LOS. This leads to a TD as the back uses patience and a quick cut for the TD.
Above– The nail in the coffin pick from Reed. Both of his picks were in the 4th quarter while pressing the comeback on a hurt leg. I’m sure he’ll be as close to 100% as possible by Dec. 20th. Reed needs to throw this ball outside where it’s out of bound or caught, not caught or picked.
THE AGGIES DEFENSE
Arch Manning averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt but did throw one TD and did not turn the football over. Manning was sacked twice but still averaged 7.6 yards per carry with a TD on the ground.
Quintrevion Wisner hit 8.2 yards per carry while CJ Baxter was shutdown with only 1.7ypc. Texas A&M’s defense logged 10 TFL’s against the Horns.
Manning hit seven different receivees with only two hitting double-digit yards per catch marks. Jack Endries averaged 23.3 yards per catch and Ryan Wingo caught a TD from Manning. The Aggies logged five PBU’s.
DT Tyler Onyedim logged three TFL’s and a sack of his own.
Above– Manning pushes this throw deep even though the CB is above the hard deck (red line). He can throw a comeback, a speed out but a fade is a bad choice here and is a pick.
Above– DL gets immediate penetration but look how tall he’s playing. He’s over striding which means he can’t come to balance and finish in a good position or economically. He misses this tackle and TAMU misses a ton of tackles for a team with a DC for a HC.
Above– A&M uses Concepcion more similarly to Toney but you can see where motion draws defenders and Miami needs to keep that OODA Loop off course re the A&M defense.
Above– Wisner has that Pringle-like patience and quick cut. He’s on course to run into no.4’s chest but a quick step cut inside and he’s gone.
Above– Wrap and kick. Miami needs to kick with Cooper and wrap with Mauigoa. As long as the kick-out guy’s head is inside the back should be able to cut inside of him and up the field.
Above– More patience from Wisner as he follows the pullers on a wide sweep. You can’t outrun them, you have to play that slow to and then fast thru once they engage.
Above– Manning is much more mobile and athletic than Beck but Beck can step up and keep his eyes downfield. Those escape turned downfield throws can be deadly for DB’s in coverage. This is a go-ahead TD for Texas.
Above– Give arm / take arm. Texas A&M has a stiff-arm turned big play against them in part 1 and part 2 of this series. That means Mark Fletcher, Elija Lofton aka the big fellas need to use the stiff arm.
Above– Speaking of Lofton, we heard all spring and summer that he could be the feature back in this offense and here UT uses their TE in an under center jet sweep from the wing. 2-over-2 for Texas’ blockers up top and they leave the EMOL unblocked hoping the handoff fake will freeze him and it does.
Above– I’m aware this is Arch Manning at QB here but the ToneyCat needs to be used against A&M. It will be a good idea to motion Beck out of the backfield, keeping eyes on him, and direct snapping to Toney who runs a draw with a split zone block from the TE. Could spring for a TD like this does.
THE AGGIES PUNT RETURN
Above– KC’s big punt return came because Texas lost their leverage and allowed him to escape the sideline. The 1st guy down has a license to miss so you see him on the deck there. That’s okay he’s a kill shot player.
Above– #2 who is also no.2 can’t miss. He has to scallup, come to balance, and squeeze the PR to the sideline and shove him out of bounds. He canNOT let him come inside and run away from the best tackler on the team- the boundary. Miami has to track this and force him out of bounds.
The Forecast
While the Canyonero main theme was to sell the farm to get yourself in a brand new Canyonero… the individual Canyonero Keys to beating Texas A&M are:
1- Can’t let Reed run. Reed is a huge part of the Aggies offense obviously as a passer but also as a threat to run the ball. If Reed can get loose against Miami that will add a dynamic for the ‘Canes defense they haven’t really let get out of control all season. He’s better on the scramble than designed plays so stay in your rush lanes and be patient and reliable.
2- Must run to win. The ‘Canes can’t get stuck trying to sling the ball all game on the road. This ain’t Pitt, this ain’t SMU… this is Texas A&M. The crowd will be loud and rowdy for a home playoff game. Championships are won with smart QB play and defense. But the run game has to help Beck or he’ll wind up forcing it again like the Louisville game which was at home.
3- Win the kicking game. Close games come down to penalties and kicks. Miami has to win the kicking game and Carter Davis has been really good this season. Punt away from Concepcion and cover kickoffs and you can win the kicking game vs. A&M.
Score Prediction: TAMU by 1. This is an intense game on the road and I’m giving the home team a one point lead in my prediction. I think fans are in for a hell of a game and a barn burner. With the Aggies being at home I’m giving them the nod in a 21-20 type of game.
