On Tuesday afternoon, the Phillies had some minor league shakeups with their rosters that was akin to rearranging deckchairs. They needed some pitchers here, a few hitters there, but they snuck through a minor league signing that at least had a bit of intrigue.
If the name rings a bell, it probably should. Drafted in 2016 by the Cardinals, Carlson rose through the St. Louis system to become one of their top
prospects, a piece considered key to their future. In 2020, he made his debut with the team during the Covid-shortened season, not hitting particularly well, but also not embarrassing himself. The following year, he ended hitting .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs and 65 RBI, looking every bit the piece of the Cardinals’ outfield of the future.
Since then, it has been a steady downhill slide. He hasn’t approached anything near those numbers, be it through ineffectiveness or through injury. The latter part has been a bugaboo around him with injuries to his hamstring, ankle, oblique, shoulder and thumb. Since being traded by the Cardinals at the 2024 deadline, Carlson has begun the nomadic nontender journey that many players who were once top prospects find themselves on. He has gone to the Rays, then to the Orioles, then this spring training to the Cubs. It’s his release from the Cubs that has landed him here with the Phillies organization, hoping to provide some depth in their Lehigh Valley outfield.
Which brings us to the part that concerns us most: is there really anything interesting about Carlson other than being someone who can stand in the outfield?
The short answer is no.
The longer, more detailed answer is no, not really.
Carlson’s value at the plate comes from a discerning batting eye that saw him having walk rates in the eight, nine and ten percent range. He rarely chases pitches out of the zone, so his best skill is that of patience. Usually, pairing that with power upon contact and there is something a team can work with, even with the below average defense Carlson provides in the corners. Yet this power has never really re-appeared at the major league level. His slugging percentages have fallen in each of the seasons he has played in the major leagues with the major power indicators under the hood dipping with them.
He simply doesn’t impact the ball enough when making contact to make any kind of a difference. Pitchers have made that abundantly clear as they have continually started throwing the ball in the zone more often as he has continued playing in the majors, knowing that even if he hits it, it’s not leaving the yard.
He does pull the ball in the air a lot though!
Listen, the team’s outfield depth is an issue. We can all plainly see that Felix Reyes needs work at the minor league level to continue his development. The issue is that there really isn’t anyone else capable of coming up and doing the job that he currently does. Maybe they decide it’s time to bring back Otto Kemp, maybe they give Carlson a few days to round back into playing shape before giving him a crack at the job.
But if you’re looking for a sneaky minor league signing that could give larger dividends, this probably isn’t it.
