Astros Roster Projections as of March 9

There’s some interesting decisions that have to be made. Where could the Astros be leaning as of today?

This article updates my previous roster projection: https://www.crawfishboxes.com/houston-astros-analysis/72007/astros-2026-roster-and-depth-chart-projections-as-of-february-1

Let’s start with the rotation:

1. Hunter Brown
2. Tatsuya Imai
3. Mike Burrows
4. Cristian Javier
5. Spencer Arrighetti
6. Lance McCullers Jr/Ryan Weiss

Now, Arrighetti hasn’t been sharp, and his velocity hasn’t been consistent. He’s also only pitched twice, so there’s time.

Weiss has solid in his one outing, but he also went 2.1 IP in his first

(and to date only) appearance. He’s also coming off a year where he threw over 170 IP and that durability/reliability should matter.

Jury is still out on Lance McCullers Jr. He’s only pitched one time, and he threw all of 8 pitches. The good news was that his velocity was significantly up from last year on his fastball/sinker. It’s the difference between him being a major leaguer or not.

The bad news is he’s only pitched once, and threw all of 8 pitches. Astros are understandably being cautious with Lance considering his injury history, and he has thrown a simulated game for 2 innings, the details of which are not public outside of the fact he threw “about 40 pitches”. That happened March 4, so 5 days ago.

McCullers gets the start tomorrow against Baltimore in an outing that could very much determine his future going forward with the Astros.

A strong outing could put him into a rotation slot, likely bumping Ryan Weiss to the pen even though Arrighetti hasn’t performed well as yet. A tough outing could have the team reevaluating his timeline and his role. Whether or not McCullers can maintain velocity inning to inning is a very big question that needs to be answered.

Considering Lance threw 40 pitches in a simulated game 5 days ago, I would expect he’s looking at something between 50-60 pitches tomorrow.

Now the bullpen:

1. CL Josh Hader (likely IL)
2. SU Bryan Abreu
3. LHP Bryan King
4. LHP Bennett Sousa
5. LHP Steven Okert
6. RHP AJ Blubaugh
7. RHP Ryan Weiss
8. RHP Roddery Munoz (last spot if Hader on IL)

The final two spots in the bullpen are the ‘flex spots’. I have included Weiss here as well as the rotation because what happens with McCullers directly impacts Weiss.

With the Astros employing a 6-man rotation, they will need a couple of pitchers who can go multiple innings, which Blubaugh and Weiss can certainly do. Having a short pen and trying to protect Hader and Abreu from multi-inning appearances will require having guys who can go multiple innings all season.

Sam Carlson and Kai-Wei Teng have impressed in camp, but the Astros selected Munoz in the Rule 5 draft and like his power stuff. After a rough start to Spring Training, Munoz has settled in and shown that power stuff racking up 7K in 4 inning. Since the team has to keep Munoz on the roster all season or offer him back to his original team, if Munoz continues to pitch well I think that situation gives him a leg up in being the last man in the pen with Hader sidelined.

Peter Lambert has also impressed in camp, and threw 3 shutout innings today, allowing 2 hits with 2 BB and 3K. He has worked himself into the conversation as a non-roster invitee.

Josh Hader’s situation is still the most tenuous of any Astros player. Hader is one of the most irreplaceable players on the roster, and he is still only throwing bullpens after being shut down last year with a shoulder capsule injury and then biceps tendinitis he developed before Spring Training. Presuming the bullpen session goes well, Hader will throw live BP Friday.

At this current progression, it’s possible Hader doesn’t return to the roster until after April 15, perhaps closer to May 1 to sharpen his stuff and command after the offseason setback.

Pitchers recap:

Starters: Brown, Imai, Burrows, Javier, Arrighetti, McCullers Jr (pending Tuesday start)

Bullpen: Hader (IL) Abreu, King, Sousa, Okert, Blubaugh, Weiss, Munoz (with Hader sidelined for now)

Now let’s get to the lineup:

C: Yainer Diaz, Christian Vazquez

It’s clear Astros don’t like/trust Cesar Salazar to handle regular backup catching duties, nor do they think he’s capable of being an everyday player if Yainer were to be down for any length of time. They bring back Vazquez for his defense, preparation and leadership. Vazquez can’t hit a lick anymore, but Houston values his veteran leadership presence.

IF: Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, Isaac Paredes, Nick Allen

The first 5 of these players, barring a trade, are going to play a significant amount of time – meaning full time to very close to full time starter reps. How the Astros manage this is debatable, but they will all play the overwhelming majority of games. Allen is the backup SS/defensive replacement.

OF: Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Zach Cole, Joey Loperfido

Yordan is expected to primarily DH, but how much time does he actually get in LF is still to be determined. If he played twice a week in LF, that would be 52 games. That doesn’t seem unreasonable. Three times per week would be 78 games, which would be a new career high and seems unlikely (at least for now).

Cole is a power LH bat with a cannon arm, and the team reacquired Loperfido because they like the adjustments he’s made to his swing and think it will make him more consistent. They always liked Loperfido’s defense.

Cam was the prize oft he Tucker trade and they expect him to take a big step forward this season, but they have the depth if he doesn’t. Meyers will play CF as long as he is an Astro.

Taylor Trammell has really played well this spring. Team loves his grit and hustle, he is a terrific defensive player as well. Trammell has always had the tools to be successful but he’s never hit at the MLB level. With Cam and Jake entrenched as the right handed OFs, there’s just no room for Trammell right now.

Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo are both playing in the WBC. Whitcomb went 2×4 for Team Korea with 2 HR in a start at 3B, and had a pinch hit double in today’s win over Australia. Dezenzo went 1×3 with a double for Team Italy in a start in RF. He also walked and scored twice.

However, both being right handed bats, neither seems to have a role on the current roster as neither can play SS at the MLB level, and the Astros have corner infield spots covered between Correa, Walker and Paredes. Both could be call ups during the season as injury replacements.

Best projected lineup:

1. Pena – SS
2. Alvarez – LF
3. Altuve – 2B
4. Correa – 3B
5. Paredes – DH
6. Walker – 1B
7. Diaz – C
8. Smith/Cole -RF (Smith vs LHP, Cole vs RHP)
9. Meyers – CF

Paredes has only had a handful of innings at 2B this spring, so whether or not the Astros are comfortable with him at 2B is yet to be determined. However if they are, it would make more sense to DH Altuve, who posted his best offensive numbers last season while DHing. This lineup actually projects to be pretty good.

Now best projected lineup doesn’t equate to most likely projected lineup, as we know Yordan will not play LF often.

Here is what a Yordan at DH lineup looks like:

1. Pena – SS
2. Yordan – DH
3. Altuve – 2B
4. Correa – 3B
5. Paredes/Walker – 1B
6. Diaz – C
7. Cole – LF
8. Smith – RF
9. Meyers – CF

This is still a solid lineup that should produce.

I also think that on days when Paredes spells Altuve or Correa, Paredes should slot into that player’s spot in the lineup and not change the entire lineup as a result. Espada is the King of Lineup Variations, but with a steadier reason for variations instead of playing injury mix-and-match, it may become more uniform in that regard.

Here is a maxed out lefthanded hitting lineup for Astros:

1. Pena – SS
2. Yordan – LF
3. Altuve – 2B
4. Correa – 3B
5. Paredes – DH
6. Cole – CF
7. Walker – 1B
8. Loperfido – RF
9. Diaz – C

or Yordan at DH:

1. Pena – SS
2. Yordan – DH
3. Altuve – 2B
4. Correa – 3B
5. Paredes/Walker – 1B
6. Cole – LF
7. Diaz – C
8. Loperfido – RF
9. Meyers – CF

Lineup Recap:

Regulars: Diaz, Walker, Paredes, Altuve, Pena, Correa, Yordan, Meyers, Smith

Bench: Cole, Loperfido, Allen, Vazquez

This team has a lot more depth than it had last season, and along with better health (how could it be worse than last year?) it should translate to more wins.