I suspect if I were to ask Guardians’ fans as a whole who their least favorite Guardian (non-gambler edition) of 2025 was, the answer would be Nolan Jones. Let’s talk about his season, shall we?
Jones put
up a .211/.296/.304 slashline in 2025, which is a 72 wRC+. Among major league outfielders who received 400 or more plate appearances, Jones had the second-worst wRC+, behind only Brenton Doyle (who is a great defensive centerfielder). Angel Martinez was slightly ahead of Jones on this list at 74 wRC+, in case you wanted an unpleasant reminder of why the Guardians’ outfield was so inept offensively. Oh, and Daniel Schneemann was fifth-worst on this list at 79 wRC+ – fun!
Back to Nolan Jones – the odd thing about Jones is that his expected weighted on base average – which looks at the quality of a player’s batted balls – was fifth best on the team at .308. A .308 wOBA is roughly a 98 wRC+. Had Jones put up a 98 wRC+, he was roughly an average fielder in center and a below average player in right-field. He would have likely achieved around 1 win above replacement and we would be potentially talking about if a Jones-Martinez combo in centerfield can be a winning platoon for the team in 2026. Jones had the second-highest hard-hit rate on the Guardians among players with 30 or more plate appearances (Johnathan Rodriguez was first if that helps contextualize things for you).
So, a question we need to ask – and that, surely, the Guardians are asking themselves – is, is there a reason that Jones so dramatically underperformed his expected numbers that is predictive of his being an ongoing boondoggle, or was it just a snake-bitten season for a potentially valuable roster piece if retained? This isn’t going to be a popular answer for Guardians’ fans to hear, but when I look at Jones’ underlying batted-ball and plate discipline metrics, I don’t see any reason to believe that his underperformance this season wasn’t mainly about poor luck. Jones doesn’t look like a great hitter, but his chase, his whiff, his in-zone contact, his ground-ball-to-fly-ball percentages, his pull-rate and his infield-fly rates all look within line for him to be that .308 wOBA guy with a little better luck. Jones looks like an average hitter against right-handed pitching (102 wRC+ for his career) who should basically never face a lefty (76 wRC+ for his career). He had 193 innings in centerfield with 0 Outs Above Average and -2 Defensive Runs Saved. It’s possible with additional exposure in center, those numbers would drop, or Jones, who tends to be injury-prone, would end up hurt more often. But, it’s also possible that a full offseason of preparation for roaming center might help Jones excel there where his arm plays extremely well. I don’t really want to reach this conclusion, but I do think a Jones-Martinez straight-up platoon in center would likely be a league-average combination for the Guardians in 2026, IF we can project both to make some modest defensive improvements with an offseason of work.
Now, put away your pitchforks and your torches, I am still not sure it’s a good idea for the Guardians to retain the services of one Nolan Jones. He ended the season on the IL with an oblique strain, and we know his back continues to bother him at times. I don’t know that it is at all a wise decision to hang on to him hoping he can be a decent strong-side platoon in center if the team can’t find any improvements on this option in the offseason via free agent and trades. I think legitimate doubts exist about Jones particularly because of ONE number: he put up -8 runs in value against fastballs last season. Now, that number may ALSO be somewhat bad luck noise, but if Jones isn’t able to catch up to fastballs and get his barrel on them, he’s always going to underperform his expected numbers. Because of that one metric, I don’t know if it wise to tender him a contract and end up potentially on the hook for the $2 million he is projected to get in arbitration. But, I do think that salary number is probably low enough where to begin the offseason, the Guardians will tender Jones before November 21st and keep him until potentially another better option comes along.
The 2025 season was eye-wateringly bad for Nolan Jones, and I feel for him. He seems like a good person and every time I have encountered him as a fan, he has been unfailingly kind and friendly. I think he has potential to be a league average hitter against right-handed pitching who can play a decent centerfield, and the Guardians will likely need to decide if Jones or Will Brennan has more potential to fill that role, as needed, on their 2026 roster in the next few weeks. Do they prefer the quantity of contact improvement of Brennan over Jones or the quality of contact improvement of Jones over Brennan? Does either player offer better chance to overcome recent injuries than the other?
Either way, whomever the team chooses will be retained just in case Chase DeLauter or George Valera is injured. Given that Brennan has min0r-league options remaining and Jones does not, IF Brennan can be seen as healthy, he may get the nod and the team may try to see if they can get Jones through waivers based on his poor season in 2025. The questions posed above are the ones the Guardians will need to answer, but, if you have joined the horde of Jones-doubters, I would not yet consider yourself clear from the danger of having to try to hope he regains more of his 2023 form as the Guardians begin Spring Training in February.
