In the first week of February, we examined Michigan’s NCAA Tournament resume according to the NET rankings and the quadrant system. At the time, they had a chance to put together a historic resume with a record amount of Quad 1 wins. Since then, a ton has changed in the landscape around Michigan.
As a reminder, the NET rankings are based off of teams’ record in games per quadrant. The quadrants are defined as follows:
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Please note all metrics are from after Michigan’s matchup with Minnesota on Tuesday
night.
As of Wednesday morning, the NET has Michigan as the No. 1 team in the country despite the head-to-head loss to Duke. While the committee is unlikely to place Michigan above Duke due to the head-to-head result, KenPom also favors the Wolverines over the Blue Devils at this time.
Michigan, Duke and Arizona seem to be separating from the pack as the top three by nearly all metrics. However after those three, the NET differs quite a bit as it has Illinois at No. 4, Gonzaga at No. 5, and Purdue at No. 6. Florida, Iowa State, Houston, and UConn round out the top-10. Other Big Ten teams of note include No. 11 Nebraska, No. 12 Michigan State, No. 28 Iowa, No. 32 Wisconsin, No. 36 Indiana, and No. 37 Ohio State.
With that in mind, the Wolverines now sit at 10-1 in Q1 games. Villanova has climbed up to No. 30 in the NET, so Michigan’s home win over the Wildcats now classifies as a Q1 win. San Diego State is also lingering in the mid-40s, so the Wolverine’s neutral site win over the Aztecs remains a Q1 win as well. None of the rest of their Q1 games are at risk of falling to Q2.
In the aforementioned Q2 bucket, Michigan currently sits at 9-1. There’s room for improvement here as Michigan took care of Wisconsin (32), Indiana (36), Ohio State (37), and UCLA (41) all at home. If one or two of those teams could climb into the top-30, that would be advantageous to Michigan.
Similarly, Michigan beat Northwestern (79) on the road, meaning the Wildcats only need to climb four spots for the Wolverines to count that as a Q1 win. The only matchup at risk of falling to Q3 is Michigan’s narrow escape of Penn State (132) in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions are just three spots away from falling out of the Q2 bucket.
In Quads 3 and 4, Michigan is 4-0 and 2-0 respectively. There are a few possible movers here though it’s unlikely to affect Michigan’s resume in any meaningful way. Rutgers (157) and Middle Tennessee (158) were both home wins and are thus at risk of falling from Q3 to Q4, while Maryland (142) on the road is seven spots away from moving up to Q2. Similarly, Oakland (167) at home is just six spots away from moving up to Q3.
More important is what’s up next for Michigan. Dusty May’s squad rounds out the regular season with three Q1 games. The Wolverines travel to Illinois (4) and Iowa (28) before hosting Michigan State (12). All three games are virtually guaranteed to remain Quad 1 games. With a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, the Wolverines are then likely to face as many as three Quad 1 opponents on a neutral site.
The moral of the story here is there is still a ton to play for. Despite the loss to Duke, the No. 1 overall seed is not out of the question just yet since the advanced metrics still favor the Wolverines. They also have a significantly harder schedule than Duke does in the ACC, so should the Wolverines run the table, they are right back in the thick of things.
As we stated the first time we rounded up these rankings, the quadrant system will likely treat the Wolverines quite well come Selection Sunday.
