When | 3:30 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
Kenpom prediction | Mizzou -24
ESPN win probability | 99.0% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (2-0)
G: Anthony Robinson
II (JR, 9.0 PPG in 2024-25)
G: Sebastian Mack (JR, 9.6 PPG in 24-25 at UCLA)
F: Jevon Porter (SR, 12.5 PPG in 24-25 at Pepperdine)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 13.9 PPG in 24-25)
C: Shawn Phillips, Jr. (SR, 5.4 PPG in 24-25 at Arizona State)
Notable Sixth Man: Jayden Stone (SR, 20.8 PPG in 2023-24 at Detroit Mercy)
VMI (2-0)
G: Tan Yildizoglu (JR, 8.5 PPG in 2024-25)
G: Linus Holmstrom (SO, 6.5 PPG in 24-25)
G: AJ Clark (JR, 4.9 PPG in 24-25)
F: TJ Johnson (JR, 12.1 PPG in 24-25)
F: Kaden Stuckey (SO, 3.4 PPG in 24-25)
Notable Sixth Man: Mario Tatum, Jr. (FR)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know VMI:
From Sam Snelling’s preseason preview:
The Keydets don’t have much in the way of a storied history. They’ve been to the NCAA Tournament three times, but their last trip was in 1977. Although they did make the Regional Final the year before in 1976. Since their last trip they only have three 20 win season, and 16 single digit win seasons. So this is a proud historical military based school that has no real history of basketball success.
Despite VMI’s historic lack of success in basketball, the Keydets are a program on the rise. Head coach Andrew Wilson led the team to a program-record turnaround last season, going 15-19 and improving by 11 wins from the prior year. VMI returns an impressive nine of its top 10 scorers from that group, including the SoCon preseason Player of the Year in Rickey Bradley, Jr.
Bradley, Jr., has not yet appeared in a game for the Keydets this year, and it’s uncertain if he will make his season debut Sunday. Another returning double digit scorer is TJ Johnson, who averaged 12.1 points and 4.7 rebounds last year. VMI relied on one of the shortest rotations in the country last season, and the team has been rolling with a core group of 10 players so far that have each averaged over 14 minutes through two contests.
The Keydets were chosen to finish sixth out of 10 teams in the SoCon preseason poll, but the team’s cohort of quality returners suggests there should be notable improvement from last year’s campaign. VMI is unlikely to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season, and Andrew Wilson’s squad will rightfully be heavy underdogs when they take the court Sunday. But the Keydets have enough talent to make this game uncomfortable for the Tigers with their best performance.
3 Keys to the Game
Get ahead early… and don’t let up
Mizzou took care of the first portion of this key against SEMO, jumping out to a 12-0 lead to begin the game. But the Tigers let up on their intensity, allowing the Redhawks to get back into the action. “I think we jumped out early, and we kind of just went into a lull,” Mark Mitchell said in the postgame press conference, “got kind of soft, got kind of complacent…” If they want their first true blowout victory of the season, Mizzou will need to keep their foot on the gas all the way until the game reaches garbage time territory.
Force them to beat you from three
6-foot-7 forward TJ Johnson was the key player in VMI’s 78-74 win over Southern Indiana, putting up a double-double with 32 points and 14 rebounds. Johnson went 11-of-20 from the field, but was just 2-of-9 from beyond the arc. Those three-point struggles extended to the rest of his team, as the Keydets shot 28.1 percent from deep. If the Tigers can shut down Johnson and the rest of VMI’s squad from inside the arc, it will be incredibly difficult for the visitors to compensate with their three-point shooting.
Paint touches
The Keydets have some good height among their guards, but the team’s tallest starter — Kaden Stuckey — is just 6-foot-8. With Mark Mitchell coming off a 29-point performance on 12-of-14 shooting from the field, the senior should get fed all day at the elbow and in the post. The notable height advantage should also help Shawn Phillips, Jr., bounce back closer to his career-best form from the season-opener against Howard. Establishing a dominant presence in the paint early and often should help the Tigers grind down resistance and make offensive momentum easier to grab as the game continues.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 93 – VMI 71
I’m expecting this game to be far more similar to the matchup against Howard than the game against SEMO. Mizzou’s defense has been suspect, at times, but solid when the entire team is engaged with intensity. We’ll see if the narrow victory against the Redhawks serves as a wake-up call for this squad long-term; even if it doesn’t, I think the Tigers simply have too much talent, height and length for VMI to overcome. Mark Mitchell should be in line for another strong performance against a smaller Keydets team, and I’m expecting this game be the most comfortable of the season for Mizzou through the opening week.
