It is an interesting time in the Bluegrass State. Kenny Brooks is building something special over at HMC, Will Stein is rolling into November as a top-10 team in the country, and Mark Pope has completely rebuilt this Kentucky Basketball team from top to bottom. But how will he do?
It’s never an easy thing to look at the schedule in October and make a prediction about each game, but that’s what I am going to do here. I have broken it down into likely wins, toss-ups, and likely losses. I am also not
forecasting injuries or anything like that. And with Kentucky’s injury history over the last few years, that is probably not going to happen.
But without further ado, let’s jump in.
Likely wins
These are the matchups where Kentucky holds a distinct advantage in talent, depth, or location. While upsets happen, the Wildcats should be favored to win these contests.
- Manhattan (Nov 3)
- James Madison (Nov 6)
- Northern Arizona (Nov 13)
- Grambling State (Nov 16)
- Wichita State (Nov 27)
- Appalachian State (Dec 5)
- Bryant (Dec 8)
- Sacred Heart (Dec 22)
- Gardner-Webb (Dec 28)
- Ole Miss (Jan 5)
- Missouri (Jan 9, Away)
- LSU (Jan 13)
- Vanderbilt (Jan 16 & Feb 23)
- South Carolina (Feb 10)
- Georgia (Feb 16, Away)
Toss-Ups: The Coin Flips and Thrillers: These games will define Kentucky’s tournament resume. They feature elite opponents, intense rivalries, or tricky road environments where the outcome could easily swing on a single late-game possession.
- Louisville (Dec 12)
- Indiana (Nov 20, Indianapolis)
- Virginia (Dec 2)
- North Carolina (Dec 19, New York)
- Oklahoma (Jan 2, Away)
- Mississippi State (Jan 20, Away)
- Tennessee (Jan 23)
- Ole Miss (Feb 2, Away)
- Alabama (Feb 6)
- Arkansas (Feb 20)
- Auburn (Feb 27)
- Texas A&M (Mar 3)
Likely losses
- Kansas (Nov 10, Chicago)
- Texas (Jan 30, Away)
- Tennessee (Feb 13, Away)
- Florida (Mar 6, Away)
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Final prediction
The schedule isn’t an easy one. The ceiling for this group remains incredibly high because of the ability to make shots. If the shots are falling this year, Kentucky is going to be very tough to beat because the defense has looked better than advertised already.
Wins (25)
- Manhattan
- James Madison
- Northern Arizona
- Grambling State
- Wichita State
- App State
- Bryant
- Sacred Heart
- Gardner-Webb
- Ole Miss x2
- Missouri
- Louisville
- LSU
- Vandy x2
- South Carolina
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Miss St
- Auburn
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Virginia
- Tennessee
Losses (7)
- UNC
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Florida
- Kansas
- Tennessee
- Texas
I think a split with the Vols is most likely, but I think Kentucky will manage to sweep Ole Miss and Vandy this season. The matchups against those rosters favor the Cats at nearly every position. I also won’t pick the Cards to win in Rupp, a place they haven’t won since 2008, when Rick Pitino and Billy Gillispie were the coaches.
On the flip side, Kansas is going to be tough to knock off early in the season before Kam Williams is back fully healthy. Texas, Arkansas, and Alabama prove too much in SEC play, while losing a close game down in Gainesville sends the Cats to the SEC Tournament feeling good.
That should be good enough to get Kentucky a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and a real chance of getting to an Elite 8.
What do you see as Mark Pope’s record in Year 3?
