Ben McCollum’s first year as Iowa men’s basketball coach has been a rollercoaster ride. Or perhaps more accurately, it’s been one of those “kiddie” roller coasters. You know the ones – they’re a fraction of the size of a real roller coaster. Yes, they have ups and downs and twists and turns, but everything is scaled down. There are no loops and trips upside down that make you want to hurl. But if you’re young enough or have a week enough stomach, sure they can get you feeling some things.
That feels
like where we are with this Iowa basketball season. When McCollum was announced, the enthusiasm was through the roof. The guy is an absolute winner and a pendulum swing away from the last 15 years of all gas offense with little concern for defense. He focused on fan engagement, culture and restoring the program to what he grew up watching as a fan himself.
But entering the season, this was supposed to be a bubble team. Middle of the pack in the Big Ten and hopefully in play on Selection Sunday.
Fast forward to the final weekend of regular season play and guess where we are? Right back at the start of the ride.
Except, throughout the course of the season, we took those twists and turns and rode to the top of those big drops. We saw this team go from a bubble team to a virtual lock. They had no really bad losses and even finally secured a signature win as we moved toward the end of February. This was a borderline top-25 team with one of the nation’s best scorers leading the way and consistent effort on the defensive end that gave people fits.
Expectations were raised.
That’s when we went over the edge of that steep climb. The drop picked up speed and we got the biggest jolts of the season. The loss at Maryland in mid-February was rough, but survivable. The loss to Purdue was frustrating but expected.
Losing at Penn State was a season-defining moment that firmly pushed the Hawkeyes back from tournament lock and double-bye contender in the Big Ten Tournament to a bubble team with no shot at a top-8 seed in the BTT. Their only hope was to knock off Michigan at home or Nebraska on the road in the season finale.
On Thursday night, with backs against the wall, Iowa came out swinging. The crowd was incredible and the defense was stifling. The Hawkeyes held Michigan to just 71 points – 17 below their season average – while forcing 18 turnovers. Iowa was in it until the final possession.
But alas, they fell short and again find themselves with backs against the wall in their season finale at Nebraska. Despite being at 20-10 overall and 10-9 in the conference, largely where we would have expected before the season began, Iowa is edging closer and closer to the wrong side of the bubble after losing five of their final seven games.
ESPN still lists Iowa in the “should be in” category, while the Hawkeyes have slipped from a 7-seed down to a consensus 9-seed over on Bracket Matrix. That’s largely in line with where the fanbase is expecting them to land, but a far cry from where things could have landed if Iowa had simply played the level of defense we saw on Thursday night over the entire month of February.
A loss on Sunday won’t necessarily mean doom for Iowa’s NCAA Tournament chances. There is room below them as a projected 9-seed to still sneak in. But it would mean absolutely no margin for error in the Big Ten Tournament. Losing six of nine games to close out the regular season, including the worst loss of the season, without a laundry list of Q1 wins would put them firmly on the bubble next week, despite FanDuel Sportsbook not currently offering odds on the Hawkeyes as a bubble team.
A loss paired with an Indiana win would be disastrous. It would help bolster the Hoosier’s resume as they push to get to the right side of the bubble and also move Iowa into a tie with IU for 9th place. Thankfully, the Hawkeyes hold the tie-breaker with the head-to-head win, but as a 9-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, Iowa would be staring down a matchup with either Maryland or Oregon followed by a potential game against Ohio State, and finally a neutral site game against the same Michigan team that just won in Iowa City.
In short, Iowa has backed themselves into a corner. But it’s largely the same corner we had hoped they would make it to at the start of the season. And after Thursday’s performance, it’s at least encouraging to see that this bunch is willing to come out of that corner swinging rather than resigning themselves to their fate.
Iowa and Nebraska are set for a 4pm tipoff on Sunday from Lincoln. The season finale will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
The Big Ten Tournament kicks off Tuesday, March 10th at 4pm CT. Iowa will either play at 11am CT on Wednesday, March 11th as the 9 seed, or 11am CT on Thursday, March 12th as the 8 seed (Iowa can still get the 8th seed by winning on Sunday, paired with an Ohio State loss to Indiana on Saturday).
