Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho are potentially one fight away from a title shot.
This Saturday, Imavov and Borralho square off in the main event of UFC Paris, a five-round middleweight matchup with title implications. UFC CEO Dana White has already declared that the first title challenger for Khamzat Chimaev’s newly won belt with either be the winner of this, or the winner of the upcoming Reinier de Ridder vs. Anthony Hernandez matchup. So with that in mind, both Imavov and Borralho will be looking
to make a big impression on Saturday, but can they do it?
On top of that, the UFC’s latest foray to the City of Lights also includes a banger of a co-main event as Borralho’s Fighting Nerds teammate Mauricio Ruffy takes on France’s Benoit Saint Denis. The bout screams action and caps off an otherwise solid Fight Night card.
So without further ado, let’s get into my favorite bets of the weekend.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nassourdine Imavov (+110) vs. Caio Borralho (-134)
This is an excellent main event between two of the best middleweights in the world. Imavov is a patient, powerful striker with solid takedown defense, and Borralho is a talented grappler who has developed a dangerous boxing game to compliment it. Imavov has the hometown crowd behind him, while Borralho seems to be a bit better of a tactician.
Ultimately, I come down on the side of Borralho. If you look back at his run, only Brendan Allen has been focused on scoring takedowns, and while Imavov defended well, Borralho presents a better wrestling threat, and a more dangerous striking threat to open that up. Even if Imavov can keep it standing, Borralho can just win a straight up kickboxing match, and if he can score takedowns, it’s a huge advantage for the Fighting Nerd.
Bet: Borralho straight up at -134
Benoit Saint Denis (+158) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-196)
Another fight that is going to rock. “BSD” looks like he might be the heir apparent to Justin Gaethje’s long-held title of “Most Exciting Fighter Alive” moniker but Ruffy is right there with him. While Saint Denis is a chaos merchant who uses physicality and grappling prowess to break opponents, Ruffy fights a lot like Conor McGregor.
That should kind of tell you how this one is going to go. Ruffy is precise and Saint Denis is a defensive liability at the best of times. Moreover, Ruffy has never been taken down in the UFC. Unless “BSD” made huge leaps in his striking defense almost overnight, he’s going to get lit up on Saturday.
Bet: Ruffy by KO/TKO at +115
Patricio Pitbull (+176) vs. Losene Keita (-220)
In Saturday’s main card opener, Patricio Pitbull makes his third stop in the octagon this year, taking on the debuting Losene Keita. Keita is a 27-year-old two-division champ out of Oktagon (both featherweight and lightweight) who is cool as hell. The man has huge power, fast hands, and digs to the body. He’s going to have a long and productive career in the UFC.
But he might not have the best debut. Yes, Pitbull is undeniably past his prime, but the old dog still has plenty of tricks left in him, and for as fun as Keita is, the man is not a defensive genius. Pitbull is still crafty and hits hard, and I think he’s being undervalued because of his lackluster debut against Yair Rodriguez.
Bet: Patricio Pitbull straight up at +176
Marcin Tybura (-106) vs. Ante Delija (-114)
In the prelims, there’s a bout between a Top 10 heavyweight and a former PFL champion that people don’t seem to care about because, let’s face it, it’s heavyweight. But Tybura vs. Delija is a decent fight and a legitimately meaningful one, and it’s also a rematch. These two first met at M-1 Challenge in 2015 where Tybura won by TKO after a failed leg kick injured Delija. Now he gets his chance at revenge and a UFC ranking.
And somehow, Delija is the favorite? I’m not putting any stock in their previous fight, but let’s be honest about Delija’s PFL run, it wasn’t exactly filled with monsters. He beat Matheus Scheffel twice to win the title, and then beat Maurice Green, before losing to Valentin Moldavsky. Meanwhile, Tybura has quietly been a very good heavyweight for a long time, losing to only the best of the division. Delija certainly isn’t that, so give me near plus money on the more proven fighter.
Bet: Marcin Tybura straight up at -106
Wrap Up
Been a hot minute since we’ve had a gambling column so we refashioned what it looks like to the simplest version possible. Let me know what y’all are on this weekend in the comments and until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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