When the Blue Jays and the Yankees slugged it out in the ALDS, they represented the two best offenses in baseball this year by fWAR. The Yankees were bolstered, obviously, by the presumptive MVP Aaron Judge, but they also hit the most home runs in baseball: 274, 30 more than the next-closest team, the Dodgers. The Blue Jays, by contrast, hit 191 homers, only 13th-most in baseball, but still managed the league’s best OBP (.333, edging out the Brewers by one-one-thousandth of a point) thanks to one weird
old trick: they strike out the least in baseball, and put the ball in play the most.
Lack of strikeouts isn’t everything; the NLCS-bound Dodgers struck out the most this year and had the fifth-ranked offense in baseball. The Royals had the second-fewest strikeouts this year and had a bottom-ten offense. To compare apples to apples, last year Toronto had the fifth-lowest strikeouts and finished third in their division, missing the playoffs for the first time in two years.
The difference-maker for the Blue Jays this season was the type of contact they made. They had the third-highest line drive rate in baseball, at 25%, and the fifth-best xwOBA (which takes into account quality of contact and plate discipline). The headline-grabber in the Jays lineup is obviously Vladimir Guerrero Jr., owner of the hardest-hit baseball in the AL this year at 120.4 mph, a new personal best (which, funnily enough, was a groundout off Bryan Woo, fielded by Ben Williamson). But Vladdy is actually bested for barrels per plate appearance by teammate George Springer (10.8%), who at 35 years old is having his best season as a pro by wRC+ (166).
Springer is the poster child for the transformation of the Toronto offense led by new hitting coach David Popkins, who encourages his players not to be afraid of making mistakes as long as they’re calculated risks, like in situations where they can get their “A swing” off. Under Popkins’s guidance this season, the Blue Jays as a team have gradually raised their bat speed from one of the worst in MLB to one of the best in September—a key to unlocking their best hitters. Blue Jays hitters, while aggressive, are perfectly willing to watch the first pitch go by if it’s not to their liking, even if it’s a strike; the mantra is “it’s better to go 0-1 than 0-for-1.” For all their attack mindset, they actually swing slightly less at the first pitch than the average MLB team.
“We’re not letting them get us out on a pitcher’s pitch in the first couple pitches,” Ernie Clement told Sportsnet back in July. “If I get out on a fastball down the middle on the first pitch, I’m OK with that. That’s my intent. But if I ground out on a pitch that’s two balls off the plate outside, that’s not doing anybody any good.”
That mindset will present a challenge for a Mariners pitching staff the preaches the importance of the first-pitch strike. Execution of those first pitches will be crucial during this series: too far off the plate, and pitchers will find themselves in a 1-0 hole. But make the pitch too juicy, and they could well find themselves down in the game 1-0. It will never be more important to execute a “pitcher’s pitch” early in the count, rather than going for the kill shot for a strikeout, especially a strikeout looking (sorry to fans of Eduard Bazardo and his devastating spotted strikeouts in Friday’s game). The Blue Jays have the sixth-lowest percentage of called strikes in baseball, and the third-lowest whiff percentage. They will swing, and they will put the ball in play; they do that better than any other team.
The job for the Mariners pitchers will be managing that contact. They were the seventh-best staff this year in getting hitters to put the ball on the ground. But they were only about average in barrels allowed, allowing one of the league’s highest average exit velocities. That will be a challenge against a Blue Jays lineup that has an attack-first mindset.
“If you’re not attacking, you’re getting attacked in this game,” Popkins told MLB’s Keegan Matheson prior to the start of this season.
The Mariners’ pitching staff is built on the idea of attacking. Mariners pitching has the third-highest first pitch percentage in MLB. If the Blue Jays hitters don’t swing, they are likely to find themselves in that 0-1 hole. That’s a place they’ve taught themselves to be comfortable. But the Mariners pitchers are equally comfortable in an 0-1 count; they lead MLB in 0-2 counts.
“This is a team we know makes contact,” said Dan Wilson prior to the series opener. “This is a team that will put the ball in play. But our guys are still going to stick to the philosophy we have, attack the strike zone, get in control of the count, and when you do that, you’re hoping to get weaker contact versus the hard contact.”
Attack mindset vs. attack mindset. These are the matchups of October.
