The Guardians have re-signed Austin Hedges and revamped their bullpen. What else might they do – or not do – before Opening Day in spring training in about six weeks?
First, I want to address some pushback
I have gotten for decaying the possibility that the Guardians do not plan to make a significant move for a bat to help their lineup. While it is certainly true that there is plenty of time left for the team to do something, I would point folks to three indicators as to why I find it unlikely they will:
- After the season, Mike Chernoff and Chris Antonetti both acknowledged that their 28th-ranked offense needed help. In 2024, they said the same thing about their rotation and they spent the offseason remaking their rotation with young arms like Slade Cecconi and the now disgraced Luis Ortiz.
- The next time we heard from Chernoff, Antonetti and Vogt at the Winter Meetings, they focused on the bullpen and said they don’t want to sign a batter who would block their young players.
- At the same time, Zack Meisel of the Athletic began to note in his podcasts and articles that the team doesn’t seem motivated to get a bat and spend to get payroll even up to 2025 levels. Paul Hoynes, for what it’s worth, also hQ10as expressed belief that no move for a significant hitter is on the way. These are the best sources among beat reporters that we have.
- We are approaching a lockout in 2027 that mY extend into the season. As Paul Dolan plans to transfer managing control to David Blitzer, it makes (cold, financial) sense to have payroll as light as possible heading into a time when revenue is likely to be negatively impacted.
I will be oh so glad to be proven wrong by the Dolans. They have ample opportunity to show my assumptions here to be premature and hasty and I urge them to do so. Asking Jose Ramirez and the fanbase to stomach another year of payroll cuts after the team made the playoffs yet again would seem like a bridge too far to me. But, what do I know?
If the Guardians do make a move, what moves are left for them to make? Let’s look at some available free agents (Note: I suspect the Guardians will get 1-3 starting pitchers on minor-league deals or John Means-level ML deals if they are recovering from an injury, but my focus is on hitters, here):
Impossible: Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, and Bo Bichette.
Analysis: I will livestream myself eating a Guardians hat if they sign one of these guys.
Highly Unlikely:
Kaz Okamoto, RHH 1B/3B – 29 years old, free agent from Japan, projected for a 110 wRC+
Harrison Bader, RHH CF – 31 years old, projected for a 93 wRC+ with a career 106 wRC+ against LHP while playing a good defensive centerfield
Analysis:
The Guardians have never signed a free agent from Japan so I don’t see any reason to think they will do so now, as much sense as Okamoto would make. And I do not believe they will give Bader starting centerfielder money, while some other team is sure to do so. Passing on Okamoto bothers me far more than Bader does.
Plausible:
Rhys Hoskins, RHH DH/1B. 32 years old, projected for 104 wRC+ with a career 137 wRC+ vs LHP. Not a good defensive first baseman.
Ty France, RHH DH/1B, 31 years old, projected for a 101 wRC+ with a career 110 wRC+ against both RHP and LHP.
Ramon Urias, RHH IF, 31 years old, projected for a 96 wRC+, career 105 wRC+ vs LHP. Good at second or third, not at short.
Luis Urias, RHH IF, 28 years old, projected for a 97 wRC+, career 109 wRC+ vs LHP. Ok at second or third, not at short.
Austin Hays, RHH OF, 30 years old, projected for a 93 wRC+, career 124 wRC+ against LHP, probably only viable in LF but maybe if you squint real hard in center?
Miguel Andujar, RHH 1B/3B/OF, 30 years old, projected for a 107 wRC+, career 121 wRC+ vs LHP, probably only an average fielding option at first and bad everywhere else.
Chas McCormick, RHH CF, 30 years old, projected for an 89 wRC+ with a career 137 wRC+ vs LHP. Good defensively in center.
Analysis: The only players who makes sense to me here in terms of potentially in the Guardians’ price range and likely an upgrade over existing options are Andujar and McCormick. At this point, landing eithwe would feel huge. But, they may have already got McCormick in Stuart Fairchild and may feel David Fry can be Andujar at first base and right field.
Trade Targets: Batters rumored to be available
Unlikely:
Ketel Marte, SH 2B, 32 years old
Luis Robert Jr, RHH CF, 28 years old
Analysis: You’ll have to excuse me for not believing the Guardians will part with the prospect haul required to acquire a franchise, borderline-HoF player like Marte who is north of 30, as much as I’d love to see it. I also don’t see the Guardians taking on any of the $20M Robert is owed, and they may have clubhouse fit concerns. So, I did not include their projections and stats here, because, why bother?
Plausible:
Jake Meyers, RHH CF, 29 years old, projected for a 99 wRC+ with a career 110 wRC+ against LHP. Great defender in center.
Alec Bohm, RHH 3B/1B, projected for 108 wRC+ woth a career 133 wRC+ vs LHP. Should be a good first baseman. Unclear if Philly is interested in moving him at all.
Ryan Mountcastle, RHH 1B, 28 years old, projected for a 101 wRC+ with a career 128 wRC+ vs LHP. A good first baseman defensively.
Brendan Donovan, LHH 2B/LF, projected for 118 wRC+, above average defensively at second or in left. Doesn’t hit LHP at all.
Lars Nootbaar, LHH OF, 28 years old, projected for 115 wRC+ with even splits, can play center adequately but best position is probably left. Has had a lot of injury issues.
Analysis: Mountcastle seems like the most likely to be moved and I could see that working here if the Guardians and Orioles see similar on an asking price. Meyers is tempting but I doubt the Guardians will pay the prospect cost for a starting centerfielder given the dearth of those in the game.
Bottom line, I continue to believe the Guardians will either sign Chas McCormick in mid-January or do essentially nothing to address the hitting. But I do very much look forward to them proving me wrong.
