Following the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend, there has been a lot of discussion around fourth down decisions and teams opting not to ‘take the points’ and instead going for it in a big spot. That was the case
for the Los Angeles Rams when they decided to go for it at the end of the first half against the Carolina Panthers. Leading 17-7, the Rams decided to go for it on 4th-and-3 inside the red zone. Matthew Stafford’s pass fell incomplete and the Panthers went down and scored a touchdown.
It was arguably the turning point in that game as a team with no life up to that point was given a glimpse of hope. That was the case around the NFL on Wild Card Weekend. Teams converted 15 of 29 fourth down attempts and the Chicago Bears with Ben Johnson went for it six times, including two failed attempts that led to touchdowns for the Green Bay Packers.
There is a point when going for it on fourth down becomes reckless. Johnson going for it from his own 32-yard line falls into that category. Dan Campbell going for it three times in the 2023 NFC Championship game may have been reckless. However, the Rams going for it with a 10-point lead and trying to extend their lead to three scores may have been more overzealous than reckless.
One of the biggest issues with these decisions is that the analysis is done in hindsight. A bad result doesn’t necessarily equal a bad decision. Ben Baldwin’s fourth down decision calculator favored a field goal by 0.9 win percentage points. ESPN’s model had it as a slight go by 0.4 percent. It was a decision that didn’t have a clear advantage either way. It’s unclear what model the Rams and Game Management Coordinator Dan Shamash use, but it’s very possible that it leaned ‘go’.
There are so many factors that go into these plays such as the play-calls themselves on offense and defense, as well as player execution. It can be difficult to live with the result when it doesn’t go as hoped, but with these calls, it’s important to separate the actual decision from the result. With the Rams leading 17-7, there may not have been a need to take that risk which is why it may have been overzealous from McVay, but it wasn’t necessarily a bad decision, especially when you consider that Stafford had two open receivers on the play. Had the Rams converted, it’s likely not a talking point this week.
This has been one area in which McVay has evolved the most. From 2017-2024, the Rams were the worst team at going for it when they should. This season has actually been the Rams’ best year in terms of going for it, ranking 11th in total fourth down attempts. They are also 13th in going for it when they should which is a drastic improvement. Again, there’s a line between being too conservative and too reckless. Right in the middle of the league, is a good spot to be.
McVay’s willingness to go for it has significantly helped the Rams in games this year. The Rams have added 57 points by going for it on fourth down. That’s also assuming that the Rams would have made the ensuing field goal which is being generous considering their kicking situation this year. Additionally, when they’ve converted, they’ve added a total of 58.3 points of win probability.
Back in Week 1, the Rams beat the Houston Texans 14-9. In the second quarter of that game, the Rams went for it on fourth down inside the five. The Rams scored a touchdown and won the game 14-9. Had they ‘taken the points’, the Texans would have trailed 10-9 and just needed a field goal to win on the final drive.
The Rams went for the touchdown late in Week 4 against the Indianapolis Colts and tied the game. In Week 11 against the Seattle Seahawks, they added five points by going for it in a game they won by two. When the Rams beat the Detroit Lions in Week 15, they went for it twice on fourth down during a drive that ended in a touchdown that alternatively would have been stopped with a punt or 54-yard field goal attempt. The Rams won that game by seven. While the missed fourth down gets talked about last week against the Panthers, McVay went for it trailing 24-20 with 11:51 to go instead of kicking a 47-yard field goal. The Rams converted and scored a touchdown to take the lead.
It’s possible that not taking the points cost the Rams against the 49ers back in Week 5. However, it’s also hard to fault McVay for going for the win in that situation. For as many times as the Rams have failed to convert and the opposing teams done something with the opportunity, the defense has come up big on the other side. On nine fourth down misses in which the opposing offense took over, only three times has the opposing team scored on the ensuing possession. There have also been three times in which the opposing team turned the ball over on downs or threw an interception.
During the Week 11 win against the Seattle Seahawks, the Rams failed on fourth down only for Darnold to throw an interception deep in his own territory. On the next possession, the Rams punched the ball into the end zone for a touchdown.
Another aspect of this is how good the Rams have been on fourth down compared to third down. On third downs this season, the Rams rank 17th in the NFL in conversion rate at 39.6 percent. They were 3-for-13 on third downs last week against the Panthers. However, they have been one of the best fourth down teams in the NFL. The Rams convert at a 66.7 percent rate which is the sixth-highest in the NFL.
Again, these decisions are easy to criticize with the benefit of hindsight. However, for as often as going for it on fourth down has hurt the Rams, they’ve only lost a grand total of 15 points and that’s assuming that the field goal would have been made. Going for it has benefitted them more times than not.
This is the playoffs and the margins are thin. That’s all the more reason to maximize potential points rather than taking the overly conservative route and just ‘taking the points’. That’s not to say that they need to get reckless and go for it on every fourth-and-short. With that said, being more aggressive on fourth down has helped them get to this point and there’s no reason that approach should change.
