The No. 18 Virginia Cavaliers (19-3, 8-2 ACC) ride a three-game winning streak headed into a sold-out John Paul Jones Arena on Saturday at noon. Making the trip from New York are the Syracuse Orange (13-10,
4-6, ACC), who are losers of five out of their last six and find themselves in the bottom half of the ACC standings as a result of it.
Even with the current skid, the Orange are a lot to prepare for and have had some solid outings this year that show they are capable of hanging around in this one.
Early in the year, Adrian Autry’s squad gave one of the nation’s best a run for their money for a full forty minutes. Houston pulled out a victory in overtime, but Syracuse played a complete game and got solid production from six players, all of whom reached double figures in points. That is unheard of against Houston’s defense. They also represented the ACC well in the CC/SEC challenge this year, defeating a tough Tennessee squad 62-60 in a nail-biter.
To put it simply, the Orange are a team that can pull a top-25 upset on the road, or they can lose to a team like Hofstra at home. You never know what you’re going to get with this team, but recently it’s been more of the latter.
Virginia goes into this one as a heavy favorite, their fourth consecutive game entering a game as double-digit favorites.
I have two keys for Virginia and one prediction for this one.
No easy buckets
There are 365 Division I college basketball programs. The Syracuse Orange rank 364th in the nation in team free-throw percentage. They are .1 percentage point from tying Appalachian State for the worst team free-throw shooting in the nation. Woof.
With that said, they are very solid in and around the paint. Nate Kingz is the only player who will see the floor who may attempt more three-pointers than two-point field goals on Saturday. Their guards love to drive to the hoop, and their frontcourt players are comfortable playing close to the basket. They shoot nearly 55% from inside the arc and will be looking to capitalize on their accuracy against Virginia.
As we know, Virginia is no stranger to a foul. The Cavaliers are averaging 19 whistles against them per game, and that is something most teams improve before the postseason begins. That said, it may be in their best interest to begin the improvement after this contest.
Now, there have been a lot of touch, ticky tak, ill-advised fouls that Virginia has committed over the last few games and those will need to be put to bed, but there is such thing as a smart foul, and Virginia will be in the market for those on Saturday to force the Orange to earn their points from the line instead of maybe giving up an easy layup.
Behind the arc revival
Syracuse will be dumbfounded by the number of three-pointers Virginia will attempt on Saturday. With over 28 attempts per game, Virginia averages nearly ten more attempts than Syracuse opponents take when they see the Orange. Virginia has seen some solid defensive teams this year; their three-point attempt share has yet to waiver.
The key for the ‘Hoos will be to channel the efficiency they had earlier in this season in this game and use that as a catalyst for the remainder of the year. We saw a glimpse of early-season success in their last outing against Pittsburgh, where they made 11 threes and shot 35% from deep, but that was with one of their best, Jacari White, going 0-7 from deep.
It is only a matter of time before this unit gets clicking again from behind the arc.
