The Memphis Grizzlies (21–36, 9–18 Away) limp into Dallas to face the Mavericks (21–36, 14–16 Home) on Friday night in the second half of a back-to-back for both teams. Dallas just got shellacked by Sacramento 130–121 despite Naji Marshall dropping 36 points. Memphis is on a three-game losing streak and hasn’t won in seven of their last eight. Both rosters are held together with duct tape and prayers. Cooper Flagg’s availability remains uncertain. The Grizzlies traded Jaren Jackson Jr. three weeks
ago and are down seven rotation players. This is what we call “chaos with a spread.”
Let’s scan the lines in search of value.
🏀 Fixture: Memphis Grizzlies (21–36, 9–18 Away) @ Dallas Mavericks (21–36, 14–16 Home)
📍 American Airlines Center — Dallas, TX
🕢 7:30 PM CST, February 27, 2026
📺 KFAA-TV / MavsTV / NBA App
📊 DraftKings Snapshot (as of 3:00 AM CST)
Spread: DAL -5.5 (–110) | MEM +5.5 (–110)
Total: 237.5 (O –108 / U –112)
Moneyline: DAL –225 | MEM +185
📉 Game Side Lean: Mavericks -5.5
Memphis is missing everyone. Seven players out, one doubtful. Ja Morant (elbow). Zach Edey (ankle). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger surgery). Brandon Clarke (calf). The list goes on. What’s left is GG Jackson, a collection of rookies and second-year players, and whatever fumes former Mav Olivier Maxence-Prosper is running on.
Dallas, meanwhile, just lost to the worst team in the league but still has the size and veteran presence to impose their will. The preview from MMB noted that Sacramento beat Memphis earlier this week by outmuscling them in the paint 123–114. If the Mavericks are healthy — and that’s a big if with Cooper Flagg’s status uncertain — they have the frontcourt depth (Marvin Bagley, Daniel Gafford, potentially Khris Middleton) to do the same.
The Grizzlies have won both meetings this season, but those were different rosters. Memphis traded Jaren Jackson Jr. on February 3rd. Dallas shipped Anthony Davis to Washington. Neither team looks remotely like the clubs that met in November.
Back-to-backs are brutal for veteran-heavy teams, but Dallas is at home and Memphis is playing their ninth road game in a brutal stretch. The line dropped from -6.5 last night to -5.5 tonight, which suggests some uncertainty, but the Mavs should have enough to cover if they take care of the ball. They turned it over 17 times against Sacramento. Clean that up and this game stays under control.
🔮 Total Lean: Under 237.5
Both teams played last night. Both teams are exhausted. Both teams are missing significant offensive firepower.
Memphis is down Ja Morant, their primary playmaker, and Zach Edey, their anchor in the paint. Dallas might be without Cooper Flagg again, and even if he plays, he’s coming off a four-game absence with a foot injury. The Grizzlies’ offense has been anemic lately — they’ve lost seven of their last eight — and their roster is so thin that coach Tuomas Iisalo is playing everyone 20+ minutes just to get through games.
Dallas scored 121 last night, but that was in a chaotic shootout with Sacramento where both teams were firing threes and leaking points in transition. Memphis doesn’t have the offensive firepower to turn this into a track meet. The Grizzlies are one of the smallest teams in the league now, and Dallas should control the pace with size and physicality.
The math points under. Two tired teams, depleted rosters, and a game that should grind more than it flows.
🎯 Player Props We Like
GG Jackson Over 15.5 Points (–116)
GG Jackson is the Memphis Grizzlies right now. Since Jaren Jackson Jr. was traded to Utah, GG has started eight of nine games and gone on an absolute heater from three — 20-of-39 since the trade. He’s averaging 17.0 points per game in February and has taken on a massive usage bump with the roster decimated. Dallas is playing without Flagg (likely) and P.J. Washington, which thins out their frontcourt defense. Jackson is an excellent finisher through contact at the rim, and his shooting from deep has opened up the floor for him to operate. With Memphis missing seven rotation players, someone has to score. It’s going to be GG.
Khris Middleton Over 13.5 Points (–110)
Middleton left Tuesday’s game against Brooklyn early with a shoulder stinger, which limited his minutes. But he’s expected to play tonight and should see his usual workload restored. He’s been solid since arriving in the Anthony Davis trade — 25 points against Indiana, 18 against Minnesota — and Memphis has no perimeter defense with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out. Middleton’s veteran savvy and ability to create his own shot should give him plenty of opportunities against a Grizzlies team that’s giving up points in bunches. The line feels generous at 13.5. He should cruise past it.
