Everton’s return to action, following an extended break for internationals and domestic cup football, has seen the club lose momentum in the slow-paced chase for Europe. An unsatisfactory draw, snatched late on against Brentford has been followed by defeat in the inaugural Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium and then, last weekend against struggling West Ham United — gallingly, both via goals in added time.
Against the Reds, a costly giveaway and poor set-piece defending did for the Blues,
and at the London Stadium, the visitors again failed to defend a corner kick properly, before conceding the decisive goal from poor basic marking. All four opposition goals across both matches were soft, by any measure. Throw in the season-ending injury to star man Jarrad Branthwaite – again to his hamstring – and it’s been a glum few weeks for the Toffees.
Whilst they’ve tread water in recent weeks, a couple of rivals in the chase for continental football have pushed on, whilst others have closed up behind the Blues, leaving Everton in eleventh spot in the table, at the time of writing. In what is unquestionably the team’s toughest remaining game, they welcome title-chasing Manchester City on Monday night. Gulp!
Form
It’s been a relatively familiar campaign for the serial-winners, following an uncharacteristic slump last season, in that they’ve gradually gathered momentum to mount a late title charge, chasing down front-runners Arsenal. A decision to not spend ahead of the 2024/25 season, coinciding with the loss of key man Rodri, hurt Pep Guardiola’s all-conquering team unexpectedly hard, resulting in a third-place finish, despite some heavy corrective spending (just shy of €220m) in the January transfer window. It’s safe to say that was not repeated last summer! City splashed out big money on the likes of Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, Rayan Aït-Nouri and the goalkeeping pair of Gianluigi Donnarumma and James Trafford.
A sizeable amount was recouped in the sale of a number of fringe or unwanted players, but it was noticeable that a squad refresh was underway, with the exit of ageing, former integral men in Kevin De Bruyne, Kyle Walker, İlkay Gündoğan and Ederson, alongside a couple of slightly younger types in Jack Grealish and – perhaps more surprisingly – Manuel Akanji. So did this rejuvenation of the side bring immediate benefits? The answer to that question is: yes, in that they’ve appeared a stronger, more cohesive team, but improvements have been more gradual, meaning they’ve been playing catch-up domestically, whilst not looking quite as powerful in the Champions League.
City are scoring more per game in the league, and conceding less, which is typically a good indicator of relative improvement. They’ve lost just once at the Etihad Stadium – bizarrely to relegation-threatened Spurs, in their first home outing of the campaign – although they’ve been beaten twice there in the UCL, by Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid, the latter seeing them dumped out of the competition at the Round of 16 stage, which would count as a big disappointment to Guardiola. On the road, they’ve lost five this term, including three in the league (to Brighton, Newcastle and Manchester United). They arrive at Everton’s new ground though, on a run of six straight wins, without a domestic loss since that shock result at Old Trafford in mid-January.
Team Assessment
Guardiola is universally considered to be one of the most influential figures in the development of football in the modern era, popularising his highly-structured brand of offensive possession-play, combined with effective pressing off the ball, something which has become much-admired, even ubiquitous across the game in recent years. However, unlike many of his imitators, the 55-year-old Basque has constantly sought to experiment with new ideas, some of which have caught opponents off-balance, such as his use of inverted fullbacks, and his sudden change to using a conventional – even “old-school” number nine – in Erling Haaland over the past four seasons.
Unsurprisingly, City lead the division in both share of possession (60.4%) and pass completion (88.5%), and generate the third-most number of shots per 90 minutes (15.2). They attempt only 6.4% long passes per game, as they seek to wear opponents down, both mentally and physically, with ball control, constantly probing, stretching the pitch wide, and looking to move opposition players out of position. The visitors lead the league in goals from both open-play goals and counterattacks. They defend all situations very well, and allow only 9.8 efforts on goal per 90.
Donnarumma will guard the visitors’ nets. The Italian giant is a formidable presence who saves 72.8% of the shots he’s faced in the league. Signed three years ago to play midfield, Matheus Nunes was converted to right back midway through last season and has provided energy and running power down that flank. On the left, Aït-Nouri has been alternating with Nico O’Reilly recently; both are excellent going forward. City have two starting-calibre centre halves currently injured, in Rúben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, but in their place will be big January signing Marc Guehi, alongside Abdukodir Khusanov. Everton-linked pair John Stones and Nathan Aké should remain firmly on the bench. Take note, Blues hierarchy!
In City’s 4-2-3-1 formation, and in the probable absence of Rodri, who faces a late fitness test, the experienced Bernardo Silva will pair up with any one of O’Reilly – who was deployed in midfield against Burnley – the defensive Nico González, or even the more attack-minded Tijjani Reijnders. In front of this pair will almost certainly be the mercurial talent that is Cherki – a player who then-manager Sean Dyche reputedly turned down as a potential Everton recruit. Sigh. The creative Frenchman leads City with ten league assists, alongside four goals.
At the tip of the visitors’ spearhead is Haaland. The giant Norwegian has 35 goals across all competitions, including 24 in the Premier League, and bagged a brace against the Blues back in October. On the left flank is the man who eventually replaced on-loan (now injured) Everton man Grealish, in Jérémy Doku. The Belgian is rapid and tricky but has yet to really show the end product suggestive of his talent. On the right is Antoine Semenyo, another mid-season recruit, from Bournemouth. Like Guehi, the 26-year-old has adapted well, firing five league goals since the switch, to add to the ten he’d scored for the Cherries.
Prediction
There has been plenty of grumbling in the ranks of the Everton faithful since the defeat to West Ham, probably not helped by the Hammers subsequently being handily dispatched 3-0 by Euro-rivals Brentford on Saturday. Whilst the slump in form, at this last stage of the campaign, has been untimely, such is the congested nature of the division this term that hopes of qualification for – at least – the Conference League, are not yet off the table. Even defeat tonight would not put the final nail in that particular coffin. Still, games are running out, and whilst the Blues headed into the break in March having won three from four, it is also true that the team has lost five of nine, as they await City.
Given the strength and form of the opposition, that could easily end up as six defeats in ten by the game’s conclusion, which is hardly the kind of run that offers much optimism of a rousing finish to the campaign, and European qualification, something which David Moyes was happy to talk up again during the prematch press conference, somewhat paradoxically reversing his stance from the previous week, despite another defeat. I’m really puzzled by this flip-flopping in the narrative. Should fans be dissatisfied, or thankful for what’s been a solid season, after years of instability, incluidng flirtations with relegation? That’s something to be considered for a future column. Be warned!
What lineup will Moyes go with? Beto’s been given the all-clear after suffering a concussion against Liverpool, and with Barry failing to find the back of the net last time out, it’s certain the enthustiastic big man will be back in the starting eleven. The only other player whose position could be imagined to be under threat is Dwight McNeil, who has struggled over the past few games, but it’s hard to imagine that Moyes will favour Tyrique George, or the phantom that is Tyler Dibling over McNeil, especially against such strong opposition. Vitaliy Mykolenko was poor against the Hammers, but Everton have no option to replace him that the manager would consider viable.
So, what will tonight’s hosts try to do? The talent gap between the two sides is vast, but City will look to control the game, and the ball, which in theory suits an Everton team which desires neither, and arguably plays better as the reactive party anyway. Expect the Blues to adopt a compact shape, to stay disciplined and to try to break when they get a chance to do so. City have to win to maintain their title challenge, and the longer the game stays level, the more chances they will take, which could play into the hosts’ hands. If Everton are still competing with 20 minutes to go – admittedly a big “if”, then the introduction of players who are good in transition, like Charly Alcaraz, George, or Tim Iroegbunam may cause the visitors some problems. But will Moyes make the necessary changes should this situation materialize, or keep on his trusted lieutenants for too long? The odds are on the latter, and unfortunately, on a win for City.
Scoreline: Everton 0-2 Man City
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, fbref.com and whoscored.com
