College football has a short memory and an even shorter patience threshold. Curt Cignetti took over an Indiana program that had been irrelevant for decades and went 11-1 in his first season. It was an outlier. It was not a blueprint. And yet every fanbase in America watched it happen and recalibrated their expectations for their own new coach accordingly.
Iowa State is no exception.
The Historical Reality
When Matt Campbell arrived in Ames in 2016 he inherited a program that had not posted a winning
season since 2009. He went 3 and 9 in year one. There were real questions about whether he was the right hire. What followed was one of the more successful runs in Iowa State football history, a Fiesta Bowl victory over Oregon and eleven wins in his second to last season. Ask any Iowa State fan today whether the Campbell era was a success and the answer is yes. But it started 3-9.
That context matters heading into 2026.
What Rogers Is Working With
Jimmy Rogers takes over a program that lost over 50 players in the offseason following Campbell’s departure for Penn State. He is installing a new offensive system with a quarterback making his Big 12 debut. He is working with a roster he has had months not years to develop relationships with. The rest of the Big 12 is not pausing to allow Iowa State time to adjust.
The numbers reflect the reality of the transition. Iowa State’s returning production ranks among the lower tier of Big 12 programs heading into this season. The offensive line is almost entirely new. The wide receiver room is still establishing a pecking order. These are facts not opinions.
What A Successful Year One Looks Like
A bowl game in year one of the Rogers era would represent genuine progress for a program in transition. Six wins gets Iowa State to a bowl. Seven wins would be a strong foundation. The Twitter projections of eight and four or better are optimistic by any honest historical measure given the roster turnover this program is navigating.
Indiana 2024 was remarkable precisely because it was so rare. Program transitions at the Power Four level typically take two to three years before the head coach’s recruiting classes and system fully take hold. Campbell’s own timeline at Iowa State reflects that reality.
Rogers has the credentials and the staff to build something in Ames. The reasonable expectation for 2026 is progress, development and a bowl game. Anything beyond that would be a genuine surprise worth celebrating.
