The Cincinnati Bengals have revamped their defense and brought back all their core offensive players.
That alone should mean they end up surpassing last season’s win total of six games.
But the Bengals will also have a much easier schedule.
As Warren Sharp posted on X and wrote on his website, Cincinnati will have the third easiest strength of schedule in 2026. That is quite the jump from last year’s “actual strength of schedule”, when the Bengals had the 20th hardest lineup of opponents.
This season,
only the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints will have weaker schedules, according to this metric.
This strength of schedule is determined by the projected win totals of the Bengals’ opponents, and not how they finished last year.
In other words, it looks at the current states of the teams, and not results that d0n’t tell the whole story. “Projected win totals incorporate current information about team strength, including offseason acquisitions, injuries, and coaching changes,” Sharp wrote.
This method also helps reduce the impact of luck. “We know that certain teams will benefit from luck factors in games next season, such as fumble recoveries, opponent field goal misses, tipped passes that result in interceptions, and red zone variance,” Sharp wrote. “But with current projected win totals, the pure luck factors that decide games are not incorporated.”
If you’re wondering about the rest the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens have the fifth easiest schedule, the Cleveland Browns the seventh easiest, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have the 16th easiest.
Of course, no system is perfect, and much will change by the time the season starts.
But one thing is for sure—the Bengals got a lot stronger by trading for Dexter Lawrence and drafting Cashius Howell, who can contribute right away.
We discussed those moves before in our latest show:
