There have been a lot of heroes for the Nationals, especially on the offensive side of the ball. However, one player who deserves a special shoutout is Brad Lord, who has been the definition of reliable this season. In my opinion, Lord has been the best pitcher on the team, and should be recognized as such.
The numbers also back up this assertion. For the season, Lord has a 2.20 ERA in 45 innings. That is All-Star caliber stuff from the Nats star long man. Lately, he has taken his game to the next
level. Since a blowup outing in Pittsburgh on April 13th, Lord has allowed 3 earned runs in 32.1 innings. That adds up to a 0.84 ERA.
While the Nats have big stars in James Wood and CJ Abrams, who are locks to make the All-Star team, you can make a strong case that Lord should join them in Philadelphia. Due to his thankless job as a long reliever, he will likely be passed up for bigger name closers, which is a shame. Lord is as reliable as they come, and the Nats would not have a record above .500 without him.
The 26 year old already has 1.4 bWAR, which is fourth on the team and second among pitchers behind Foster Griffin, who has 1.5 WAR. Lord is not a pitcher who relies on the strikeout, though he can get whiffs when he needs it. Instead, Lord relies on pounding the zone and keeping the ball on the ground. His GB rate is an elite 59.7% and he is walking just 7% of hitters.
So how is Lord getting these elite results? There is actually a new statcast metric that could help explain his dominance. Statcast started measuring swing timing and miss distance. One of the things that does is measure whether a hitter is early, late or on time with a pitch. It turns out that hitters are late on Lord’s fastballs a lot. They are late on his 4-seamer 42% of the time and 41% of the time on his sinker. The 4-seam ranks 6th in late percentage and the sinker is 14th.
This stat could help explain why Lord is so tough to barrel up and get off the ground. His 4.7% barrel rate against is in the 84th percentile and his ground ball rate is in the 97th. Hitters have a tough time catching up to Lord’s heater, and it prevents them from making clean contact.
While Lord throws pretty hard, he is not a flamethrower by any means. Between his sinker and 4-seamer, Lord averages 94.5 MPH, which is just about average velocity these days. However, he throws from a low arm slot and has a funky delivery. By the time hitters pick up the pitch, it is often too late.
Now that we have established Lord’s brilliance, I want to make one suggestion to Blake Butera. I think the Nats skipper should start using Lord in high leverage spots more consistently. He is the team’s best pitcher, and they should treat him as such. Lord needs to be fully unleashed as a multi-inning stopper late in games.
Too often this season, he has been passed over in big moments for Mitchell Parker due to a perceived matchup advantage. The gap between these two pitchers is massive, and platoon splits are not a good enough reason to go with Parker. Sure, Lord is better against right handed hitters, but in big moments just go to your best arms.
With underlying metrics that suggest his ERA should be in the mid 3’s, Lord might be due for some regression, so don’t blame this article. However, at worst, he should be at least a solid option. However, he has been spectacular rather than solid lately.
Right now, Lord and Orlando Ribalta are the guys Blake Butera should trust in the biggest moments, with Clayton Beeter in a distant third place. Due to his multi-inning role, Lord is not going to be available as often. When he is available, Blake Butera needs to weaponize him though.
On Saturday, Lord was used in an 8-3 game, but given the meltdown on Wednesday, I understand Blake Butera not wanting to take any chances. In my opinion though, Lord should be used in a 2 inning role in close games. Whether that is a 6 out save, keeping a lead at one run or holding a tie, that should be the time to use Brad Lord.
Right now, Brad Lord is the Cy Young of this Nationals team and should be on the staff for years to come. He reminds me a lot of former Nats pitcher and current Padres manager Craig Stammen. Both are former starters who use deception to be multi-inning weapons out of the bullpen. They will never get the credit they deserve, but like Stammen was for years, Brad Lord is a glue guy in the bullpen.
