NFL predictions: Which running game excels in Browns-Ravens matchup to take over the AFC North?

This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns (3-2) take on the Baltimore Ravens (4-1). Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.

Can the Browns’ Run Defense Come Through?

I’ve harped on this a bunch of times already, but last week’s game was mostly a non-factor for what I think of the Browns, except for one thing (I’ll get to that in a bit) due to the weather conditions. The weather is set to be great in Cleveland for Sunday’s big divisional game against

the Ravens.

If you jump forward to the predictions this week, though, I’m picking the Ravens, even with knowing Tyler Huntley is starting for them. I certainly think the Browns can win, and am only putting the edge slightly in Baltimore’s favor, but the big reason centers around Cleveland’s run defense and the status of Mason Graham and Mike Hall.

The Ravens rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (164.4) and are also 3rd in yards per carry (5.07). Side note: It seems pretty stunning that with how poor the Browns’ rushing attack has been, they are ranked 21st in rushing yards per game. The Browns’ run defense is 18th in rushing yards allowed per game (117.4) and 23rd in rushing yards per play allowed (4.48). They allowed their first rushing touchdown of the season last week against a Jets rushing attack that had previously been anemic. For a team that has relied on close, last-second victories, I see that successful rushing attack for the Ravens being the defining factor this week in them taking over the game late.

High Stakes for Cleveland

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Cleveland this week. If they win, they go back into first place in the AFC North, and would have victories over two division rivals already. If they lose, they are suddenly two games back of first place, and without the tiebreaker, which really makes it like three games back. Here are some of the positives I can think of this week, along with some general notes:

I liked what Isaiah Bond did in training camp, and it’s unfortunate that his time to shine came in rainy conditions, which likely contributed to a couple big dropped passes. With that said, KC Concepcion was meant for those targets, and he’s expected back in the lineup this week as he returns from a concussion. Zay Flowers is obviously a lot more proven than the rookie, but we’ll get to see each player on both sides (and a lot like to compare Todd Monken’s utilization of the two).

If the defense can find a way to be better against the run, then certainly they pose a problem for Tyler Huntley (or anyone for that matter). Last week against Geno Smith, after that first drive, he practically could not get anything going. That is an important point to make, though: on that first drive, the team should lock up with Zay Flowers right away, because if the Browns don’t adjust in-between weeks, then those crossing routes will burn them early again.

The eye test continues to tell me that Quinshon Judkins hasn’t been right this season. There was a time last season when he looked just as impressive as the rest of the team’s young rookie class, and even though he averaged 3.6 yards per carry, the eye test always said, ‘Man if our offensive line wasn’t so bad, I wonder what Judkins could do,’ because you saw the ability there. Now, everything is so pedestrian looking with his running style, that he looks like just another guy. Don’t get me wrong, there is plenty wrong with the blocking as well, but Judkins’ stock has fallen to the bottom of the pool in comparing the team’s promising young players.

The offensive line took a step back in pass protection last week, but that’s one of those things I don’t get overly concerned with unless it happens in normal weather conditions.

According to FanDuel, the Browns are 3 point underdogs against the Jets. The over/under is 39.5.

Quick Hitters

Offensive coordinator Travis Switzer was asked about the offensive line breakdown last week that led to a bunch of sacks, and how communication comes into play:

“Yeah, it’s about taking every rep, whether it’s a walkthrough rep, a practice rep, it might be a meeting rep, where we’re just talking through things, and it’s making sure everybody’s on the same page and they’re hearing guys communicate, because they’re the ones out there that have to do it. Certainly, we kind of give them the guidelines, if you will, but communication is the priority there. I mean, even if they maybe didn’t do it exactly the way that we talked about it, if we’re all on the same page, we have a chance. So, I think it’s just taking advantage of every single possible rep you could get, whether it’s a walk, a practice, a meeting rep, and making sure everybody’s on the same page there.”

Defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg talked about making adjustments to the defense pretty quick last week after the Jets’ opening-drive score:

“A game is like a week in practice. It’s like the Wednesday to the Thursday to the Friday. They say the first drive to the second drive, and you’re constantly trying to find your different edges. Eliminate Browns hurting Browns, eliminate things that could hurt us, build on things that could help us, figure out what they’re doing. ‘Oh, this can work, let’s go here.’ It’s a constant adjustment process, or it’s a constant, ‘hey, let’s settle back. Let’s let our players get their cleats in the ground, their eyes right, and play fast as hell.’ And every game, no matter the first drive, the third drive, the tenth drive, it’s a constant process of all of us together on the sideline just trying to figure out what’s best for the next drive and then don’t even think about anything after that. And shoot, whatever happens in that drive, what’s best for the next drive. And sometimes it is adjustments, sometimes it is just take a step back, let’s let our play style take over. So, it’s a credit to those guys, the way they responded. And also, part of that is just the heart, the resilience after a tough first drive to bounce back, is credit to our players.”

Special teams coordinator Bryon Storer said both the long snapper and punter made mistakes on the game-costing punt last week:

“Well, it started with the snap. We had a high snap. I talked to Rex (Sunahara), me and Rex watched the tape, and he brought his hips up, which brought the ball up, and then it slipped right through Corey’s hands. And so that was an unfortunate series of events on the one play. Usually those two guys, this was the eighth punt of the game, so they had done a pretty darn good job up to that point in the game. And for whatever reason, they both made a mistake on the same play. And usually when guys that handle the ball every single play that they’re out there, if both of those guys make a mistake, there’s going to be something bad that’s going to happen. That’s part of the job.”

Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:

Predictions

Chris Pokorny: “As I said earlier, I had to lean toward the Ravens this week. If the Jets were able to run all over the Browns last week with the defensive tackle issues, then Baltimore will do the same to them. Let’s hope that besides that, the Browns play a relatively clean game, minimizing turnovers, and getting a few clutch plays to give them a shot at the end of the game. Unfortunately, I think the Ravens will utilize that won’t be able to deter the mighty Ravens’ run game too much.” Ravens 23, Browns 17

Jared Mueller: “The injury issues with both teams tell me this will be a battle between RB Derrick Henry and QB Deshaun Watson. Can the Browns defense hold up without a few defensive linemen and, likely, LB Carson Schwesinger? Can Cleveland’s offense get things going without RBs Quinshon Judkins (likely) and Raheim Sanders (for sure)? Watson could get WR KC Concepcion back, which could give HC Todd Monken some options to use the short pass game as an extension of the run game.

In the end, especially with WR Zay Flowers added to the Ravens injury report, the home crowd pushes the Browns ahead just enough.” Browns 20, Ravens 18

Curtiss Brown: “I wasn’t surprised that the Browns lost to the Jets last week but everyone else was. Not surprising but it’s not like the Browns came out flat against the Jets they gave themselves a chance to win in the end but the mistakes came back and cost them.

As far as this game goes, it’s a measuring stick for the Browns. Yes, both teams have a CVS list of injuries but aside from the injuries the Ravens are a better team than the Browns. This game will tell if Cleveland can compete with the playoff level teams. The Browns running game has been nonexistent since the preseason. Fans are offering their suggestions on how to fix it and none of the ideas will work but it’s another topic for another day. If the Browns can contain Derrick Henry, which they have done they will have a chance. As far as the passing game goes, if KC Concepcion is back it would be beneficial for quarterback Deshaun Watson who hasn’t played great but he hasn’t played at a level that warrants getting benched. He’s just trying not to be the reason why the team loses which is a safe way to play but it’s not necessarily sustainable.

If QB Lamar Jackson plays, the Browns would likely lose. If QB Tyler Huntley plays, the Browns will likely still lose but it will just be a phone booth type of game. Baltimore’s defense isn’t elite but they can cause problems. Game will be competitive but Ravens find a way to win because they are the better team as of now.” Ravens 29, Browns 21

Barry Shuck: “I believe the Ravens are an above-average team. But in the past five years, they have gone 2-3 playing in Cleveland, so there’s that. Who doesn’t remember the game in 2024 when QB Jameis Winston orchestrated that late touchdown to Ced Tillman for the 29-24 win? Of course, the Browns finished 3-14-0 that year. Or what about the 2021 contest when Cleveland had a 24-3 lead and then their offense went dark and held on to a 24-22 win? Or on the road in Baltimore when Deshaun Watson suffered a displaced fracture to the glenoid in his right shoulder during the first half, was losing 31-17 going into Q-4 then pulled out a 33-31 win in probably Watson’s one and only elite status game? Ravens are middle of the pack in passing yards while the Browns reside in the lower half. Baltimore is #3 in rushing while Cleveland is #18 stopping the run. The Ravens are #12 in run stoppage, whereas the Browns can’t run the ball whatsoever and have no clue how to change this. CLE is bottom third in passing; the Ravens are average in pass defense. Neither team has any isolated “wow” factor on either side of the ball although Derrick Henry is #5 in rushing. Will our leading tackler, LB Carson Schwesinger, play? A heavy dose of Henry will be the deciding factor.” Ravens 23, Browns 13

Ezweav: “At the time of this writing it’s unclear whether or not Lamar Jackson will be playing, and that certainly impacts the prediction. If he can’t go, we’re winning this one easily. So let’s assume he will.

Possibly not having Sweshy is mitigated by having a full-on green dot replacement coming off one of the greatest defensive performances in team history. Quincy will be JUST fine in that role if that’s what has to happen.

[X’s & O’s] > [Jimmy’s & Joe’s], although the positions of QB (on offense) and Green Dot (on defense) do very much impact how those schemes get deployed. It happens that on our side Watson’s done pretty well at executing the offense (with obvious hiccups in a new scheme and such) so I don’t really see a huge deficiency heading into this matchup. History is history and now is now, and there’s no reason we can’t walk out of the house on Sunday with a dubb.” Browns 19, Ravens 15

Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.