The No. 15 Alabama Crimson Tide have played just one game — a paycheck beating of the North Dakota Fighting Hawks in the Mausoleum. But, it was not exactly a thing of aesthetic beauty. The Tide, playing
with0ut Keitenn Bristow and 75% of its backcourt (including its best perimeter shooters), did manage to cobble together 91 points, but it was ugly almost every second of the way. The Tide only netted eight offensive rebounds, surrendered 30 points in the paint, committed 15 turnovers — with 11 ghastly steals surrendered, Taylor Bol Bowen hardly looked like the transformative defender he had been touted as, and in the second half ‘Bama couldn’t hit the water from a boat in the Pacific Ocean.
There were good things to be had: the freshmen trio of Allen, Jemison, and London netted 33 points (and Allen especially was dynamic). Noah Williamson was all over the floor contributing in multiple ways, Collins Onyejiaka reeled in 5 boards on limited minutes, and Aiden Sherrell swatted five attempts around the rim. But as maiden voyages go, there were not many opportunities to establish a starting rotation and work with the bench.
That’s it. That’s the sum of the in-game experience the Crimson Tide has as it travels to New York to face No. 5 St. John’s at Madison Square Garden. Fresh off their defenestration of Quinnipiac (KP 197), the hometown Red Storm are the far more experienced team, holding the far more experienced and decorated clipboard, and they push the floor every bit as much as the Tide, with a relentless defensive presence to boot.
It is as daunting a road opener as you will find, particularly for just the second game of the season. But don’t despair: there is a path forward for an Alabama victory, though it will take a lot of work.
Tale of the Tape:
No. 15 Alabama (1-0) @ No. 5 St John’s (1-0)
Spread: SJU -6.5
Opponent KenPom: 14 (19 offense, 11 defense, 20 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 14 (7 offense, 11 defense, 10 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 9 (12 offense, 9 defense, 64 tempo)
Opponent NET: N/A (Projected Q1)
Opponent RPI: 10
Opponent Best Win: N/A
Opponent Worst Loss: N/A
UA Ken Pom: 24 (20 Off, 35 Defense, 3 tempo)
UA Evan Miya: 17 (15 Off, 25 Defense, 2 tempo)
UA Bart Torvik: 21 (21 Off, 28 Defense, 7 tempo)
UA NET Ranking: N/A
UA RPI: 6
UA Best Win: N/A
UA Worst Loss: N/A
Opponent Prospectus
To appreciate the challenge facing the Tide, you have to look first to the long-time system that Pitino has employed. Unfortunately, these closest thing that approximates a Rick Pitino team in the SEC are the Florida Gators, a squad against whom Alabama has struggled (2-4, with three double-digit thrashings thrown in).
The fundamental whys of his offensive philosophy are easy enough to understand: push in transition, hunt for easy rim twos, catch and release threes, score early in the clock. And if that fails, back it out, slow it down, and employ their half-court motion offense. “Play fast, but not in a hurry.” Unlike the Gators, however, it is fundamentally a guard-led system.
For an understanding of the motion offense, follow the link below — but at its heart, the thinking is simple: Pass, cut, screen. Pitino does allow dribble-drives, but it is a screen dependent offense in the half-court:
Defensively, BDR has evolved over the years.
For a long time, Pitino was a proponent of the matchup zone a la Chris Beard. But his scheme has changed as the game has become perimeter-oriented: What’s the point of conceding a three-point shot, when teams are playing for them? Instead, he has become an adherent of simple-but-aggressive man pressure defense: PES — pressure, effort, simplicity. We’ve seen the same out of Houston and Arkansas, and Alabama strives for the same, so this is not completely alien.
But the way SJU executes the defense, and the talent the Red Storm employ to get there, places them among the elite.
“What I can tell you when it comes to defense…do your job on the ball. On the ball is the most important thing,” he said. Pitino has developed a defensive identity focused on disrupting ball screens, turning every possession into a grind. “Guys hate going against insane ball pressure,” he said. “Big guys hate getting trapped on the block… Do all the things that you hate.”
“Disrupt them. Take what really bothered you and do it… We’re not going to let you screen us. You’re not going to block us out. We’re out-running you.”
And, run they do. Like Florida, SJU may be the nation’s best at forcing turnovers and converting them into transition buckets. Teams rarely outrun a Pitino team. They want to run…albeit on their terms.
In terms of personnel, few teams lost as much as St John’s did: SF Kadary Richmond and G Aaron Scott graduated, SG Simeon Wilcher transferred to Texas, and Big East Player of the Year G RJ Luis left the program while not being pro-ready, and also outbidding himself on the market.
That is a lot of firepower missing. But SJU has deep hoops pockets, and they signed what may be the nation’s best portal class — they spent heavily on the backcourt: All-Big East SF Bryce Hopkins (16.7 PPG); a pair of 6’5” perimeter shooters in Oziyah Sellers (40%, Stanford) and Joson Sanon (37%, Arizona State); and the gem of the class, a player I very much wanted for ‘Bama, the electric 6’5” sophomore Ian Jackson, who led UNC in scoring and perimeter shooting (40%). As a cherry on top, SJU also inked Dylan Darling, the Big Sky POTY with an almost-infinite range from beyond the arc; when the starters leave the floor, the deep ball is still a threat.
A trio of tall, rangy shooters in the backcourt in a guard-led scheme that has now shored up St John’s biggest weakness, perimeter shooting, to go along with a defensive-minded three who can also put the ball on the floor and create his own shots, and the quintessential sniper from the bench. That is a tough matchup for most teams.
The Red Storm post is not as comparatively tall, but there is quality here, including SJU’s best returning starter and First Team Big East PF/C Zuby Ejiofor (16.8, 8.1), an outstanding player who makes up for lack of pure length (6’9”), with effort and position play. He’s joined by 6’8” Dillon Mitchell (Cincy and Texas), who’s an elite floor shooter (60%), if not the defensive or rebounding threat of Ejiofor. Also keep an eye on Freshman PF Kelvin Odeh as well. He’s small for a Four (6’5”), but like most of the St John’s roster, he’s a great positional player, and as a rare underclassman, he’s barely begun to scratch the surface of his potential.
Keys to Victory
- Be at least as good as St John’s Backcourt. There are few teams that are going to match, much less exceed, Alabama’s talent in the backcourt. Unfortunately, St John’s is one of them. And we say “unfortunately” because this Alabama team is fighting through several substantial injuries. Jalil Bethea won’t return to the Tide for several more weeks. Trelly has been on a pitch count, and did not play in the season opener with a shooting hand injury. Aden Holloway, the other elite shooter, also missed the UND game with a shooting hand injury. But the freshmen have shown a lot of promise for ‘Bama, with Amari Allen and Davion Hannah seeming to rotate Hard Hat nights with their effort on both ends of the floor. But at MSG, neither can take a backseat. Assuming Biz and Wrightsell play, this pair is going to need to make their minutes count. Likewise, F London Jemison is going to draw the assignment on Hopkins spelling Houston Mallette. The trio of Bristow, Jemison, Houston, and TBB cannot let Hopkins drive to the paint. Nor can they let Mitchell get comfortable with the ball and set up inside the circle. It would be a great night for Houston Mallette to pop off.
- This is a game for the Frontcourt to make its mark. SJU is a tall team, but man-for-man, they’re nowhere near as lengthy as the Tide are, especially down low. Few teams will be; Alabama has the 4th tallest roster in CBB. That shows up especially in the frontcourt, where Williamson, Taylor, Collins, and Bristow are going to enjoy significant size advantages. ‘Bama needs to exploit that. While the St John’s backcourt runs very deep, the front court is not only undersized, but it’s a very thin bench short on tourney-level talent beyond the starting duo. Alabama has to be the aggressor in the paint, force SJU to collapse a weakside defender, and then make them pay by drawing contact or finding the outside unguarded man. SJU brings down a double almost religiously when the ball enters the post; that’s going to leave room for a good look from the outside in ‘Bama’s baseline-and-three offense, or it will get the bigs to the line. Play hard to get to the St John’s bench. Defensively, Sherrell and Objeyiaka must contest shots, defend the rim, and clean up the glass.
- Taylor Bol Bowen has to show up. This team has been a high-effort group in spurts — Mallette, Bristow, and the Freshmen particularly have been fun to watch. But Taylor Bol Bowen was touted as some defensive wunderkind with an electric offense, and he simply has not translated that to the floor against even poor competition. Nate Oats called him out on it by name on it, especially his lack of offensive rebounding — TBB has yet to record a single OREB. It is one of the reasons Alabama’s offense is making it harder on itself than needs be. Alabama needs some Grant Nelson-esque effort from the physically gifted Junior to both contain Mitchell, and to match Collins’ offensive touch. If he lives up to his potential, there’s not a single person on that Red Storm roster that can matchup with him. If he’s JAG, that puts far too much pressure on Mallette and Jemison.
- Win the battle of the fast breaks by limiting turnovers. Alabama needs to greatly cut down on its turnovers in any case. But with a team that plays to convert steals-to-breakouts, Philon and Co. simply cannot be cavalier with the ball. Alabama doesn’t have to win the turnover battle, but it cannot dramatically lose the break points — if St John’s repeatedly forces turnovers and then gets easy buckets in transition, it’s going to make for a long day given their perimeter talent and renewed propensity for jacking up threes. One of Labaron’s biggest weaknesses entering the season was his TO rate, and he’s not off to a better start this season. You cannot have your star point guard turning it over on one of four possessions that runs through him.
- Dogs wanted down low. This is clearly Labaron’s team, but ‘Bama needs to find some dogs down low. The soft-spoken Mallette is showing up with his effort. The freshmen guards are playing their ass off. But you need someone in the post that can bring swag and intimidation in equal measure, someone who will hit the floor and throw some elbows in equal measure. Who is that going to be? Can Sherrell find his offensive game to be him? Can Bol Bowen find his effort? Can Noah adjust to the Big Boy leagues? Those are open questions — but ‘Bama needs answers Saturday. St John’s is going to body you for 40 minutes otherwise.
How To Watch
Fox Sports One, 11:00 a.m. God’s Right and Proper Central Time
Prediction
St John’s is favored on their home floor, and they probably should be. The Red Storm are vastly more experienced than the Crimson Tide are. They have a living legend on the bench. Pitino does not brook lack of effort defensively. Alabama has the edge in the front court, but it may not be enough. Frankly, even on ‘Bama’s best and healthiest day, SJU might still have the edge at the guard spots. And they definitely are a more physical bunch.
It’s a matchup that’s tough for Alabama, and a style of play that has been adopted by two squads that tormented Alabama with it: Ole Miss and Florida. Last year, the Tide went 0-3 against that pair — too many turnovers, too poor defensively, too soft in the post, poor positioning, losing the transition game, bad shooting nights. Some of that has hopefully been remedied with this entering class, but the schematic issues remain, as does ‘Bama’s penchant for giving away the ball. Until proven otherwise, they haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt that they can get over this sort of hump.
Add all that to that the loss of Tide 6th Man, Keitenn Bristow, who was in a boot for North Dakota, shooting hand injuries to ‘Bama’s best perimeter threats, an early start, a brutal road environment, ‘Bama’s youth, and the lack of an established rotation or team chemistry, and I don’t see Alabama winning this one. The effort is going to be there this year, make no mistake. The defense may not yet, and Alabama’s firepower probably isn’t healthy enough to swing this one.
There is a narrow path to victory for ‘Bama here, but it’s going to take a great shooting night, everyone with a clean bill of health, and tourney-level defense to get there — but the latter probably has not matured yet, and I seriously doubt even if they play, ‘Bama’s walking wounded are going to be able to match a healthy St John’s squad.
One suspects this game looks differently if it’s played in March rather than November. But you play this kind of game in the Autumn, and take your lumps early, to win them in the Spring.
Alabama 76
St John’s 84
Hope for the best #BOG
Roll Tide.
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