While the Mets managed to take two out of three from the Mariners over the weekend, a 4-14 record since they swept the Giants in late July means that the Mets now find themselves in a precarious position—5.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and just one game up on the Reds for the third Wild Card slot in the National League. This means that unless the Mets flip the script and rip off a long winning streak (not impossible, but not statistically likely), it will be a tight race to the finish
for the Mets to earn a playoff berth in 2025, much like last season. Unlike last season though, instead of rising to overtake their rivals, the Mets are trying to hang on by the skin of their teeth.
Though there is plenty of blame to go around for how poorly things have gone for the Mets in August, much of the source of their woes has been the starting rotation, which has collectively failed to consistently pitch into the sixth inning and been prone to yielding crooked numbers to the opposition, creating situations where the offense is having to constantly fight back from a deficit. This is having cascading effects on the bullpen, which has been used heavily and has also been inconsistent of late. Things finally reached a breaking point and a shakeup was needed. Frankie Montas was demoted to the bullpen and Nolan McLean was called up to take his rotation spot and the roster spot of Paul Blackburn, who was designated for assignment. McLean’s debut was like a breath of fresh air. He will almost certainly get another look the next time through the rotation and only time will tell if he will stick. But even if he does, it is unreasonable to expect a rookie pitcher to be the savior of the season or the singular solution to a systemic problem.
The Mets still find themselves in a situation where the need to win as many ballgames as possible with the margin of error so thin is at odds with their roster construction, which limits their ability to inject more fresh life into the pitching staff. Tylor Megill’s rehab clock has begun ticking. When he is healthy, adding him to the roster probably gives the Mets the best chance to win. But whose spot would he take? McLean is obviously optionable, but if he is still pitching well, sending him back down would hurt the team. Would it then be time to cut bait with Frankie Montas? Montas says he is adjusting well to the bullpen and is still hoping for another shot to be in the rotation again. But it’s not like he has exactly looked dominant in relief in the early going. Montas’ contract includes an opt-out after 2025, which he almost certainly will not exercise, so the Mets are on the hook for him for next year as well. Sunk cost matters a lot less in the Cohen era, but the Mets still may feel it is too soon to abandon ship.
The most important asset Montas brings to the bullpen is his ability to pitch multiple innings. With Justin Hagenman in the minors and Paul Blackburn already cut from the roster, Montas is the only true multi-inning guy the Mets currently have in their bullpen. Given the starting pitching’s longevity issues, it is understandable that the team feels that is important to have. Another way to fill that role would be to put Clay Holmes back in the bullpen. Holmes has already blown past a career high in innings pitched this season and is beginning to show signs of wear; he is more or less a five-and-dive guy at this point, even in his good outings. Heading into the trade deadline, the Mets signaled confidence in Holmes’ ability to go the distance as a starting pitcher, but their current circumstances may cause them to reevaluate. If Holmes does return to a relief role, is there someone else’s roster spot he could occupy besides Montas’?
The only reliever in the bullpen with options remaining is Reed Garrett. Like many other members of the pitching staff, Garrett has had a few rough outings in a row. But he remains one of the Mets’ best relievers and it’s hard to envision a situation where he is jettisoned a la Huascar Brazobán just because he has options. If the Mets are unwilling to cut bait with Montas—perhaps in part due to the need to have a long man—then they could designate Ryne Stanek for assignment to make space on the roster for a fresh arm. Stanek is 2-6 with an ERA north of five this season, but since the acquisitions of Soto, Rogers, and Helsley, Stanek has been shifted to a lower leverage role and has fared a little better since then.
There is still yet another wild card to consider here: the promotion of an additional prospect besides McLean. When the Mets bumped Montas from the rotation, there was much discussion regarding which of the Mets’ top pitching prospects would take the ball and McLean ended up getting the call. But the likes of Brandon Sproat, who has been dominating Triple-A for a month now, or even Jonah Tong, who was brilliant himself in his Triple-A debut, could still have something to contribute to this stretch run. Of course, the Mets’ pitching prospects are also having their innings closely monitored, but as McLean already demonstrated, an injection of youth may be exactly what this beleaguered pitching staff needs.
On September 1st, rosters will expand, which helps alleviate this problem somewhat and the Mets may very well put off these decisions until then. But 12 games stand between the Mets and that date—three of them with the Phillies—and as we know, a lot can happen in the standings in 12 games. And a lot can happen with the players currently on the roster in 12 games as well. Standout performances (both good and bad) could crystallize a more obvious solution to the problem. Injures could befall players and the problem would “solve” itself, as has happened so many other times over the course of the season. If the Mets hadn’t free fallen into this position, it would be an interesting conundrum to contemplate and watch unfold rather than a pressing issue whose resolution feels more urgent than that September 1 timeframe. As it stands, the Mets are going to have to act when it comes to which pitchers they choose to roster down the stretch. And the decisions that David Stearns makes on this matter may make or break the Mets’ playoff chances.
