Through the first 2 months of the 2026 MLB season, the Nationals played as tough a schedule as anyone in baseball. They played 4 National League teams that made the playoffs in 2025 in their first 5 series, and then proceeded to play 17 straight games without a day off, stretching from April 10th to 26th.
Not too long after, they then had to play 16 consecutive days without a day off in May, from May 12th to 27th, facing 2 division leaders in the Braves and Guardians during that timeframe as well.
In total, they’ve played 28 games combined against playoff teams so far, with countless more against teams on the fringe in the NL.
As if it weren’t encouraging enough that the Nats have played great baseball against a tough schedule, they have now put themselves in a position to firmly plant their “contenders” flag with a softening schedule over the next month. After a trip to Tampa Bay this weekend to play the second-place in the AL East Rays, and a critical 4-game set against the Phillies at home early next week, the Nats’ schedule goes as follows:
June 26th-28th: 3 Games at the Baltimore Orioles (34-40, -35 Run Diff.)
June 29th-July 1st: 3 Games at the Boston Red Sox (29-41, -9 Run Diff.)
July 3rd-5th: 3 Games vs the Pittsburgh Pirates (37-37, +6 Run Diff.)
July 6th-8th: 3 Games vs the Houston Astros (34-41, -43 Run Diff.)
That is 12 games against teams in 4th place or worse in their divisions, including 9 against teams 6 or more games under .500. It will be the Nats’ first crack against the Red Sox and Astros in 2026, while they split a 4-game series with the Pirates back in April and took 2 out of 3 from the Orioles in May.
Then, after a 3-game series against the Yankees and then the All-Star Break, the Nationals come out of the break with 3-game sets at the 36-37 Athletics and 28-46 Rockies, 6 more opportunities against teams playing worse baseball than the Nats this season.
So to do some math, that is 18 games for the Nationals against teams at .500 or worse over the next month or so, with 10 games against teams in playoff position sprinkled in. Assuming for this hypothetical a victory today for the sweep over the Royals and an even 5-5 split in the playoff team games, if the Nats could go 10-8 in this stretch, a lower winning percentage than they’ve had since late April, it would put them at 55-48 going into an offday on July 23rd, easily in playoff position as they approach the trade deadline.
Not only does the Nats schedule get easier the rest of the way, but the rest of their competition’s also gets harder. The Nats’ remaining strength of schedule is .499, the 15th-toughest in all of baseball. Here is where everyone else around them in the NL Wild Card race ranks:
St. Louis Cardinals (+2.5 on WSH): .511 (7th)
Philadelphia Phillies (+1.5 on WSH): .509 (8th)
San Diego Padres (1 GB of WSH): .514 (4th)
Chicago Cubs (1 GB of WSH): .519 (3rd)
Arizona Diamondbacks (1.5 GB of WSH): .508 (9th)
Pittsburgh Pirates (2 GB of WSH): .512 (5th)
Miami Marlins (3 GB of WSH): .504 (13th)
Cincinnati Reds (3 GB of WSH): .539 (1st)
That’s right, everyone else in shouting distance of the NL Wild Card race has a tougher schedule the rest of the way than the Nationals. While many of these teams, especially in the NL Central, will cannibalize one another, the Nats get a flurry of series against underperforming American League ballclubs, as well as 10 combined games against the Rockies and Angels.
The only team in the National League with an easier schedule the rest of the season is the San Francisco Giants at 18th, and the 9-game hole they’ve dug themselves in the wild card race may make it so it doesn’t matter.
The Nats have braved through the roughest part of their schedule, and they’ve done so admirably, with their best start to a season since 2019. Now, they have a chance to keep their foot on the gas and send a message to the league that they aren’t just a fun story, but that they are for real. A strong next month could put the Nationals in the rare position to be looking to add big league pieces at the trade deadline, rather than give them away.
