Tired of hearing about all of WSU football’s blues? Good news: Washington State Basketball is here!
I know you might be saying, “Oh yeah? WSU Hoops? That’s always a safe bet to cure my Cougar sports depression: men’s basketball.” And to that, I would have no argument; however, I think you might be a little surprised by this year’s team.
This schedule and roster are going to either be a David Riley masterclass or his final undoing.
Coach Riley took an entirely different approach with his recruiting strategy
compared to last season and doubled down with an aggressive schedule.
WSU plays a lot of winnable matchups in this non-conference schedule; outside of Duke, there are no scheduled losses. High Point and LSU profile as probable road losses, but Southern Illinois and Weber State are expected to be wins. Even games like Duquesne (didn’t think I would ever have to spell that again), Murray State, and UNLV project as one-possession games.
While these games might sound winnable (or at the very least not blowouts) and they very well might be, we need to see it in action first to believe it. WSU was 1-11 on the road last season, including losses to San Diego (226) and Pepperdine (263). So while it is certainly possible for the Cougs to outshine their 9-6 non-conference projection (not including D2 Northwest), they are going to have to quadruple their road wins from last season to do so. However, to be fair, this is almost an entirely different group from the one that struggled on the road last season.
Non-Conference Schedule Projections
Davidson Wildcats (H) – Projected Close Win
High Point Panthers (A) – Projected Loss
Duquesne Dukes (A) – Projected Close Win
Northwest University Eagles (H) – Projected Win
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors – Projected Close Win [Everett, WA (Angel of the Winds Arena)]
Duke Blue Devils – Do I even have to tell you? (Palm Springs)
Sam Houston Bearkats (H) – Projected Win
Idaho Vandals (H) – Projected Win
Murray State Racers (A) – Projected Close Loss
Southern Illinois Salukis (A) – Projected Close Win
North Dakota State Bison (H) – Projected Win
Weber State Wildcats (A) – Projected Win
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (A) – Projected Close Loss
Seattle Redhawks – Projected Close Win [Seattle, WA (Climate Pledge Arena)]
Eastern Washington Eagles – Projected Win [Spokane, WA (Spokane Arena)]
LSU Tigers (A) – Projected Loss (but not as bad as you would think)
If WSU can prevent the Q3/Q4 losses that killed them in the prior two seasons and potentially flip some of their Q2/Q1 tilts, they could be in a better position than some might expect. That might sound like a bit of a “thanks, Captain Obvious” statement, but I’m trying to outline just how small the gap between success and failure could be. KenPom projects WSU to finish 15-17, which breaks down to 9-6 non-conference and 6-10 in conference play. Beating that projection by four or five wins and reaching a 20-win season isn’t out of the ordinary, but you can just as easily see it going the other way.
To take care of some of their “lesser” opponents and flip some big results, WSU is going to have to leverage their height. WSU has an average height of 6’5” with transfer point guard Lazerek Houston being the only player listed under 6 feet. We’ve seen craftier, smaller guards have success in basketball, so give Laz some time to adjust to the speed of the game as he makes the jump from D2 to D1. Remember, Jaylen Wells didn’t take off until around 13 games into the season, when he started averaging 10+ points consistently.
Oftentimes, when good teams struggle to find their offense, or they “just don’t have it” on a given night; that’s when they can leverage their height and rebounding to impose their will. It’s simple math: more offensive rebounds mean more possessions, which means more shots than the other team. It will be interesting to see if Coach Riley and his staff can use this physical advantage in their favor to eliminate some of the bad losses we have seen during his tenure.
ROSTER: (Projected starting five in bold)
Ronnie Harrison – 6’8″
Tyler Kropp – 6’10”
Jaylen Harrell – 6’5″
Dio Blakely – 6’0″
Lazerek Houston – 5’10”
RJ Jones – 6’2″
Sebastian Akins – 6’3″
Pedro Sancho Moraga – 6’1″
Roman Stathis – 6’7″
Fraser Roxburgh – 6’7″
Ladji Dembele – 6’9″
Dominik Robinson – 6’10”
Casey Jones – 6’6″
Jamari Phillips – 6’4″
Brayden Kyman – 6’8″
Mohamed Sankhe – 6’10”
The problem for Washington State is going to be its lack of on-ball creation. The aforementioned Laz Houston will be WSU’s best option to find 1-on-1 scoring on the perimeter, and based on the exhibition against the Huskies, they will look to Ronnie Harrison for inside scoring. Harrison dropped 23 points on 8-of-9 shooting and 6-of-7 from the line, along with 11 rebounds.
Washington State needs to find consistent offense from other players, whoever that turns out to be. If Houston fails to create consistent shots, and Harrison Jr. isn’t as strong as he showed in the preseason, WSU could be in real trouble offensively night to night. Be patient as this group figures out its go-to options and builds chemistry as a team.
The question is, will WSU be able to generate good enough shots as a team to make up for their lack of individual creation? Something that Sam Taylor pointed out after we got done recording was that returner Casey Jones might be able to help this group play David Riley’s preferred style of basketball. Jones will be able to help move the ball, facilitate offense, and provide a solid scoring option off the bench. Having someone who came up in David’s system will be a massive resource for all of the new faces. No one on last year’s roster had played for Riley before he arrived at Washington State.
Jones is rejoining the program after committing to WSU in 2024 when David Riley took the job, before stepping away for two years to serve a mission for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
When David came over from Eastern Washington, his starting lineup consisted of four of his former players who knew that sometimes they had to pass up good shots to get their teammates great shots. And what happened: they jumped out of the gates with a 13-3 start and finished with 19 wins despite the absence of Cedric Coward. Over the past two years, we have seen selfish play and a lack of understanding of David’s system plague WSU’s offense. Stagnant sets, no ball movement.
This year, we might see something totally different. Without a true #1 or, quote-unquote, “guy” who wants to get their shots, we might see a really well-balanced attack, and despite the potential downgrade in talent, it might work better.
Would I bet on WSU to go 11-5 in the non-conference and get 9 wins in conference? No. Is it possible? Yes. Where I land: this team is going to be a lot more fun to watch than last year’s team. I think they are going to play well as a TEAM, something WSU athletics SORELY needs, on both sides of the ball. Their ability to create and make shots (especially threes) will determine their ceiling. Realistically, this conference is going to be really hard week to week, but WSU could find itself swimming with the Boise States and the Colorado States of the conference.
The other thing worth mentioning is that it is entirely possible to see a dip from other teams in the Pac-12, as we have seen on the football side. So many programs we thought would be more formidable turned out to be complete duds. If WSU wants to get to .500 in conference, they are going to have to count on some of the mid-tier conference teams having weaker seasons than they are currently projected to have.
This is going to be a make-or-break season for David Riley, especially with his buyout dropping to a more reasonable amount after the season. Had Cedric Coward played more than six games in a WSU uniform, would Riley be under a much different lens right now? Most certainly. But, rightly or wrongly, this is going to be viewed as a prove-it year for Riley. With the expectations and circumstances surrounding this program, I think if they fall short of reaching that 15-17 projection, it probably doesn’t get it done.
Washington State gets a chance to prove themselves right away: Monday night’s home opener against Davidson tips off at 6 p.m., and the Cougs open as 3.5-point favorites. The Wildcats rank 128th in KenPom and are picked to finish 10th in the A-10’s preseason poll. They are coming off a 20-win campaign but lost some key scorers.
The Cougs will then immediately get a chance to prove their ability to win on the road against Big South favorite High Point, which ranks 62nd in KenPom and is coming off 31 wins and a trip to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. That contest takes place Saturday at 2 p.m. Following that, WSU will travel to take on Duquesne, which was picked to finish below Davidson in the A-10, but Washington State will only be a slim favorite on the road.
Winning two out of their first three would be a FANTASTIC start to WSU’s campaign.
