Two months ago, Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP) looked close to running out of things to prove in Triple-A.
Condon was coming off a June in which he hit .337/.462/.814 with 10 home runs in 106 plate appearances.
The power expected from the third-overall pick in the 2024 draft had arrived without Condon abandoning the patience that carried him through a quieter start to the season.
Eventually, though, pitchers found a response.
After posting a 1.276 OPS in June, Condon fell to .758 in July and .695 in August.
Ten home runs in one month became four over the next two.
Condon has not homered since Aug. 6.
The downturn has been even sharper recently. Over the last 30 days, Condon is hitting .200/.330/.300 with a 56 wRC+. Even so, his full Triple-A season still sits at .267/.387/.496 with a 113 wRC+.
This is still the best power season of Condon’s professional career. His 22 home runs, .496 slugging percentage and .883 OPS are all career highs, as are his 117 games and 446 at-bats. He is also playing deeper into a season than he ever has as a professional.
So, what changed?
Condon made the first adjustment
The June breakout did not come from a major change in how pitchers attacked Condon.
Through May 22, he was hitting .239/.369/.377 with four home runs in 195 plate appearances. From May 23 through the end of June, he hit .351/.474/.865 with 14 home runs in 137 plate appearances.
His zone rate moved only from 47.6% to 49.5%, while breaking-ball usage barely changed.
Condon changed.
He chased less, missed less and elevated more of the contact he did make.
Early in the season, nearly half of Condon’s tracked balls in play were on the ground. During the power surge, that fell to roughly one-third. His contact got harder at the same time, and his barrel rate nearly tripled.
The recent downturn has not fully undone that adjustment. Condon’s ground-ball rate remained between 34.0% and 38.5% in July and August, while his average launch angle stayed near 14 degrees.
He is still lifting the ball. The pitches available for him to drive have changed.
Pitchers stopped giving him as many strikes
The response was not a wholesale change in pitch selection.
Breaking balls accounted for 36.8% of the pitches Condon saw in June and 39.5% in August. Their usage with no strikes was identical in both months.
The difference became more pronounced later in the count. With two strikes, breaking-ball usage increased from 36.1% in June to 45.6% in August.
The bigger change was location.
Condon saw 49.0% of all pitches in the strike zone during June. That fell to 42.1% in August.
The decline appeared at every stage of the count. August’s zone rate fell to 45.8% with no strikes, 40.9% with one strike and 37.7% with two.
It also cut across the pitches Condon saw most often. The zone rate on four-seamers fell from 50.4% in June to 41.1% in August. Sliders dropped from 44.3% to 38.4%, while sinkers went from 66.7% to 47.5%.
The adjustment shows up in repeat matchups.
On June 21, Ryan Weiss gave Condon a first-pitch four-seamer in the zone. Condon hit it at 97.9 mph for a single. In his three later plate appearances against Weiss, Weiss threw only one four-seamer, located it outside the zone and started Condon with three different pitches. Condon went 0-for-2 with a walk.
Brandon McPherson followed a similar path. Condon hit an in-zone four-seamer 101.7 mph for a single in June. When they met again in August, McPherson threw only five of 14 pitches in the zone and finished an eight-pitch strikeout with a cutter below it.
The 10 pitchers Condon faced in June and again in July or August reduced their collective zone rate from 49.3% to 43.3%. Their four-seam zone rate fell from 55.0% to 37.5%.
Condon followed them.
His chase rate climbed from 15.0% in June to 24.5% in August. That is not an extreme rate on its own, but the nearly 10-point increase came as pitchers were giving him fewer strikes.
Fewer opportunities were only part of it
If pitchers had merely stopped giving Condon hittable pitches, his decline could mostly be explained by opportunity.
His contact quality declined, too.
His average exit velocity on balls in play fell from 91.7 mph in June to 86.7 mph in August. His hard-hit rate dropped from 52.4% to 27.7%.
Four-seam fastballs remain the pitch Condon has handled best.
Although Condon’s hard-hit rate against them declined, his expected slugging on four-seam contact remained strong. He can still hurt the pitch. He simply received fewer four-seamers in the strike zone.
The sharper deterioration came against sliders and changeups.
Condon’s hard-hit rate against sliders fell from 46.2% in June to 20.8% across July and August. Against changeups, it dropped from 71.4% to 18.8%, while his whiff rate more than doubled.
The June changeup sample included only seven balls in play, so the exact size of the decline should be treated carefully.
Condon’s issues against secondary pitches are not limited to one shape.
Condon’s swing-and-miss stands out less because of one extreme weakness than because it remains elevated across the board. His whiff rate sits between 37.0% and 40.6% against sliders, changeups, sweepers and curveballs.
Across a comparison group of 20 Triple-A hitters, the average whiff rates were 32.6% against sliders, 30.7% against curveballs, 30.1% against sweepers and 29.1% against changeups. Condon sits roughly eight to 11 percentage points higher against all four.
Individual hitters in that group showed worse numbers against particular pitches, but many had considerably more variation from one secondary pitch to another. Condon does not.
The hard-hit comparison is less concerning against most secondary pitches. Condon is only a few points below the group against sliders, changeups, and sweepers. Against sliders, his .375 xwOBA and 34.4% hard-hit rate show that he can still do damage when he connects. Curveballs stand apart, producing a .195 xwOBA and no hard-hit balls in the tracked sample.
Overall, the issue was not simply more breaking balls. Pitchers changed where and when they used them. They reduced the number of hittable four-seamers he saw, leaned on secondary pitches to change the shape of the at-bat and increasingly forced him to deal with pitches he was less likely to drive.
The path back to harder contact likely starts with pitch selection. As Condon expanded more often, he put more difficult pitches into play — pitches he could reach, but not necessarily drive.
That will not solve everything. He also has to do more damage against the sliders and changeups that do enter his hitting window.
The next adjustment
Pitchers have changed how they attack Condon.
For much of July and August, it worked.
That does not erase the adjustment Condon made earlier in the season. His launch-angle gains have largely held even as the quality of his contact declined. That decline has carried into September. Through his first four games of the month, Condon is 2-for-15 with seven strikeouts.
Thursday offered one encouraging sign. Condon lined a slider to center field at 103.9 mph for his 22nd double, providing a reminder that he can still punish the pitch when he gets one to hit. It does not mean he has adjusted back, but it gives him something to build on over the final weeks of the season.
There will be plenty of time this offseason to speculate about where Condon fits into the Rockies’ plans for 2027 and beyond.
For now, the more immediate question is simpler.
Pitchers adjusted to him.
The rest of September gives Condon a chance to start adjusting back.
On the farm
Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes 11, Tacoma Rainiers 6
The Albuquerque Isotopes (66-70) erased a 3-2 deficit with five runs in the fifth inning and pulled away for an 11-6 win over the Tacoma Rainiers (65-71) on Friday night. Tyler Freeman delivered the go-ahead blow with a two-run single, and Braxton Fulford followed with a three-run homer that stretched the lead to 7-3.
Fulford added a solo homer in the seventh to finish 2-for-4 with two home runs and four RBI. Drew Avans went 4-for-5 with four runs scored and a homer, Roc Riggio collected three hits with two doubles, and Sterlin Thompson went 2-for-4 with a double, walk, RBI and stolen base. Freeman drove in two, while Charlie Condon went 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts.
Eiberson Castellano earned the win after allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings while striking out four. Albuquerque’s bullpen allowed three runs over the final four innings, with TJ Shook recording the final five outs without allowing a run. The Isotopes finished with 14 hits, four home runs and went 4-for-9 with runners in scoring position while leaving just five men on base. Tacoma went 4-for-17 with runners in scoring position, stranded 11 runners and struck out seven times.
Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats 4, Reading Fightin Phils 3
The Hartford Yard Goats (63-66) walked off the Reading Fightin Phils (65-64), 4-3, after surrendering the tying run in the top of the ninth. Zach Kokoska opened the bottom of the inning with his second double of the night, moved to third on Jimmy Obertop’s sacrifice bunt and scored the winning run when Jared Thomas was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded.
Kokoska went 2-for-3 with two doubles, three runs scored, an RBI and a walk, and was at the center of Hartford’s offense throughout the night. His RBI double tied the game 2-2 in the seventh before Kyle Karros followed later in the inning with an RBI double to put the Yard Goats ahead. GJ Hill also doubled home a run, while Jack O’Dowd went 0-for-4. Hartford finished with seven hits, went 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position and stranded nine.
Konner Eaton turned in a strong start, allowing one run on four hits and two walks over six innings while striking out five. Hunter Mann followed with five strikeouts of his own in two innings, allowing one run, before Fidel Ulloa worked the ninth. Ulloa surrendered Caleb Ricketts’ game-tying solo homer but struck out two and picked up the win after Hartford answered in the bottom half. Yard Goats pitching combined for 12 strikeouts and held Reading to 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, although the Fightin Phils left eight runners on base.
High-A: Spokane Indians 7, Everett AquaSox 6
The Spokane Indians (57-72) erased a five-run deficit and walked off the Everett AquaSox (66-64), 7-6, with two runs in the ninth. Everett led 6-1 after four innings, but Spokane chipped away with a run in the sixth and three more in the eighth before Ethan Hedges tied the game with an RBI single in the ninth. Wilder Dalis followed with a sharp single to left to bring home Max Belyeu with the winning run.
Alan Espinal helped fuel the comeback, going 1-for-4 with a two-run triple in the eighth that cut the deficit to 6-4. Kelvin Hidalgo followed with an RBI groundout to make it a one-run game. Dalis finished 2-for-5 with a double and the walk-off RBI, while Tommy Hopfe went 2-for-3 with two doubles and a walk. Hedges added a hit, walk and RBI, and Jacob Hinderleider went 2-for-4. Spokane finished with 10 hits, went 4-for-10 with runners in scoring position and left eight men on base.
Angel Jimenez struggled through five innings, allowing six runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out three. The bullpen kept Spokane in it from there: Alberto Pacheco worked two scoreless innings, Austin Emener added a scoreless eighth, and Seth Clausen struck out all three batters he faced in the ninth. Spokane pitching combined for seven strikeouts, while Everett went 4-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded eight.
Single-A: San Jose Giants 8, Fresno Grizzlies 5 (10 innings)
The Fresno Grizzlies (69-61) rallied from an early three-run deficit and forced extra innings, but the San Jose Giants (82-48) scored four times in the 10th to pull away for an 8-5 win.
Daniel Jackson continued his strong debut season, going 2-for-4 with a walk, a stolen base and a run scored. He singled and stole second in the fourth before scoring on a Cort MacDonald single, then added another hit in the 10th. Cristian Arguelles went 2-for-5 with two doubles and an RBI, Ashly Andujar collected two hits, and Jack Natili drove in Fresno’s final run with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 10th. The Grizzlies finished with 10 hits, went 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and left nine men on base.
Brady Parker gave Fresno six innings, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven. Manuel Olivares covered the final four innings and struck out six, but San Jose got to him for five runs, four earned, including four in the 10th. Fresno pitching combined for 13 strikeouts and just two walks, but the late damage was enough to spoil the comeback.
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