Ayyoub Bouaddi was one of the breakout stars of the World Cup. The 19-year old midfielder, who switched his allegiance from France to Morocco just before the tournament, burst onto the scene (although he’d clearly been on club radars and the watchlists published by scouting websites) with an impressive, controlling and composed performance against Brazil. Unsurprisingly, he’s been linked with a big-money move away from Lille this summer.
Bouaddi looks to have all the tools to become one of the best
central midfielders in the world. He’s got the physical attributes (6’1”, 70-75kg, 32km/h speed) to hold his own. For what it’s worth and for comparison, that’s shorter, lighter and slower than Declan Rice. He’s shorter, well lighter and notably faster than Rodri. He’s taller, heavier and about the same speed as Joao Neves and Vitinha. You can reasonably expect that 19-year old Bouaddi has a bit of room to improve his physical attributes as he continues to grow and train.
What stands out is his composure and acumen on the ball, which look far more developed than you’d expect from a player his age. He can ride challenges, progress the ball on the dribble and, at least at the World Cup, seemed to always pick the right pass. He’s an excellent tackler and reads the game well to intercept passes.
To my eye from the limited sample size at the World Cup, his macro-level game reading and decision-making has room for improvement. I don’t want to say he was caught out of position too often, although he was on a few occasions, but he didn’t put himself in the best positions to get ahead of the play. Again, you’d expect that to develop as a teenager matures.
Note: I said “become one of the best central midfielders in the world” — he’s not that player now nor is he as close as people are acting. That’s understandable. It’s fun to be excited about the next big thing, particularly when it’s a player who looks well ahead of the development curve at his position. If he continues to improve, I’d expect him to be a dominant player in his mid-20s.
But let’s slow our roll. Bouaddi mostly disappeared against France, the best team Morocco faced at the World Cup (and the closest in quality to the top club teams in Europe). You could spin it as a positive sign that he wasn’t totally exposed against that level of opposition, but I felt he chasing the game. That’s probably what you should expect from him at the club level over the next season or three. Some eye-catching games, some solid ones, some anonymous ones, and a handful of duds. He’s a few seasons off consistent excellence.
Development curves are a tricky thing. Central midfield is one of the toughest positions on the pitch, too. It generally takes guys a couple seasons longer to really hit their stride. For example, Kobbie Mainoo similarly burst onto the scene at 18-years old in 2023. At the time, plenty of people were convinced he’d be starting for England at this World Cup. He’s done well enough. He made the England squad. But he certainly hasn’t turned into a superstar (yet).
Not to toot my own horn too much, but I urged caution on Mainoo, too. I was happy to say (because I believed it) that he had plenty of the attributes you’d want from a central midfielder at a young age and that he could become a star. I’ll say the same thing about Bouaddi. He looks like he could be great but the line from precocious young talent to one of the best in the world at your position is never a straight line of continuous, upward progress. Nor is it a guarantee that those two dots will ever connect.
I’d suggest that part of the reason Kobbie Mainoo hasn’t yet reached the heights people expected was the unsettled environment at Manchester United. Optimally, a young player gets plenty of playing time with a strong team around them to help take some of the pressure off. Mainoo hasn’t played consistently, featured in a, shall we say, up-and-down United side, and was under the brightest of spotlights.
That’s why the next career step is so important for Ayyoub Bouaddi. I don’t think he should make the leap to an Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, PSG-level club yet. Lille reportedly want him for another season, to be accomplished either on a loan-back following a purchase or by not selling him this summer. If not at Lille, he should look to spend a season at a club like Dortmund or Atleti. Somewhere he’ll get Champions League minutes and enough playing time in the domestic league.
I don’t see the path to those kind of minutes at any of the biggest clubs, except for maybe Liverpool, who are a bit light at the base of the midfield. Arsenal have Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi, Myles Lewis-Skelly, and look likely to buy Bruno Guimaraes. Manchester City have Rodri (who looks annoyingly excellent again), just spent £116M on Elliot Anderson, Nico Gonzalez, and a couple other central midfielders. PSG have Joao Neves, Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz, and Warren Zaire-Emery (among others).
What happens is anyone’s guess. But I’ll do my best to read between the lines and parse it out. Lille seem determined to stick to their £85M valuation. They rebuffed a £50M bid from Arsenal earlier this year. They’d like nothing more than to start a bidding war, but I’m not sure they’re going to get one because of that price tag.
For a club like Arsenal or Liverpool (and there have only been passing links to the Reds), £85M is star-player money, particularly when buying outside of the Premier League. Heck, that’s star-player money even for a domestic league-dominating club like Bayern Munich (who haven’t been credibly linked to Bouaddi), too.
It’s a whole lot of money to spend on a teenager who isn’t a sure thing, no matter how much it looks as if he may be the real deal in the future. You could argue that Bouaddi is fairly close to the “it doesn’t matter, he’s that good, spend what you have to” level of player, but for me, there’s too much downside risk at that £85M number.
The balance feels off. It is appealing to think about getting a future star now at a “discount” from what his transfer number would be if he developed into that star and you were buying him a few years down the road. That’s great. Who doesn’t want to buy the guy the Brighton sell for £100M before he costs that much? The problem is Brighton buy them for £30, 40, or 50M, develop them for a few years, then sell the ones who become budding superstars for big money. And let’s not forget the not insignificant number of talented, young players that clubs like Brighton buy who fizzle and fade. They outnumber the home runs, by the way.
It feels like you’re paying pretty close to full freight for a star player, not getting one, shouldering the burden of developing him into a star, and bearing the risk of him not. Is that worth a price in between the Brighton purchase numbers and the 100-110M that 23-year olds (Anderson and Rogers) are commanding? I guess that’s the £85M question. I don’t think so.
If Arsenal are spending that much, it needs to be on someone who is going to be an impact player this season. That’s just not what Ayyoub Bouaddi is right now, not in the Premier League. And Arsenal aren’t buying anybody for that number to loan him back. As much as I’d love to see Bouaddi at the Emirates, it doesn’t seem likely to happen this summer nor am I convinced it’d be the right way to allocate limited resources, limited at least in comparison with the other clubs I’m about to mention.
If Bouaddi moves this summer, it looks as if it’ll be to Manchester City, who reportedly have plans to integrate him into the first team setup immediately. But man, £200M on a pair of central midfielders is quite the spend, particularly when you consider City are likely going to spend elsewhere to bring in players suited to Enzo Maresca’s setup. I’m not even sure Manchester City’s accountants can massage the numbers to make all that work. Not that that’s been an impediment in the past.
Lately, any time you’re talking about a talented young player moving for big money, you’d be foolish not to consider that Chelsea might be in the mix. As seen with their shock £117M swoop for Morgan Rogers, the Blues are the Jason Momoa sneaking up behind Henry Cavill meme of the transfer market. I’m not certain that even Chelsea know what Chelsea are doing but that hasn’t stopped them from doing things yet.
What interests me the most (in a spidey-senses kind of way) is that Paris Saint-Germain have reportedly backed off their pursuit. PSG football advisor Luis Campos brought Bouaddi to Lille in 2021. They’re the top club in not only France, but Europe right now (Bouaddi grew up in France before switching to represent his parents’ nation Morocco). They have the finances to make any deal work and would seem to be the premier destination for French-connected players.
If I were a betting man, I might put some money on Bouaddi staying at Lille this summer and winding up at PSG next year. I wouldn’t put anything on him wearing Arsenal red.
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