With two weeks remaining before the flex game, which has no bearing on championship-game qualification, the Pac-12 race is effectively down to a fight for second place. Assuming Boise State takes care of business in its final two contests, the Broncos will host the championship game. The bigger question is who will be making the trip to Boise. Four teams remain tied at 3-2 in conference play: Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State, and Utah State. Each has a different path to the championship game, ranging
from a relatively favorable schedule to needing an outright upset on the road against Boise State. This week on Stats Corner, we break down each contender’s remaining schedule, the results they need, and their chances of earning a trip to Boise. Texas State — 54% Chance Remaining Schedule vs. Fresno State — 66.4% win probability @ Washington State — 87.9% win probability Résumé Lost to San Diego State, 31-29 Defeated Oregon State, 42-21 Defeated Utah State, 20-17 What Texas State Needs Beat Fresno State on November 14. Beat Washington State on November 21. Get some help elsewhere, particularly from Boise State against San Diego State and Oregon State against Utah State. The Bobcats enter the final two weeks in the driver’s seat. Their head-to-head victories over Oregon State and Utah State give them a significant advantage over two of their three closest competitors. Both teams would need to win out and have Texas State stumble to finish ahead of the Bobcats. With the most favorable remaining schedule among the four contenders, and both games featuring Texas State as the favorite, it’s no surprise the Bobcats hold the best championship odds. Bottom line: Texas State has the clearest path to Boise. Take care of business over the next two weeks, and the Bobcats should be in excellent shape. Oregon State — 17% Chance Remaining Schedule @ Boise State — 18.3% win probability vs. Utah State — 73.7% win probability Résumé Lost to Fresno State, 38-22 Lost to Texas State, 44-21 Defeated San Diego State, 66-14 What Oregon State Needs Beat Boise State on November 14. This is arguably the biggest game remaining on any contender’s schedule. Beat Utah State on November 21. Get help from Fresno State and Washington State against Texas State. The biggest obstacle for the Beavers is their head-to-head loss to Texas State. That 44-21 defeat puts Oregon State at a disadvantage in the race and makes a Bobcat stumble particularly important. Oregon State’s path is straightforward, even if it isn’t easy: win out and hope Texas State drops a game. The dream scenario: Oregon State pulls off the upset against Boise State, Fresno State takes down Texas State, and the Beavers handle Utah State in the regular-season finale. That combination would put Oregon State in a fascinating position heading into the final weekend. The Beavers would still need the standings and applicable tiebreakers to fall their way, but an upset in Boise would dramatically change the race. Utah State — 16% Chance Remaining Schedule @ San Diego State — 55.4% win probability @ Oregon State — 26.3% win probability Résumé Lost to Texas State, 20-17 What Utah State Needs Beat San Diego State on November 14. Beat Oregon State on November 21, despite being a significant road underdog. Get help from Fresno State and Washington State against Texas State, along with Boise State against Oregon State. The most important result for the Aggies might be happening outside their own schedule: Texas State needs to lose. Utah State’s narrow 20-17 loss to the Bobcats could loom large in a potential tiebreaker, making it difficult for the Aggies to simply catch Texas State in the standings. Who would have thought after the loss to Idaho State that Utah State would still be in this position with two weeks remaining? The dream scenario: Utah State beats San Diego State, Fresno State knocks off Texas State, Boise State takes care of Oregon State, and the Aggies then defeat the Beavers themselves. It’s an interesting two-week sequence for Oregon State: Utah State needs the Beavers to lose to Boise State, then needs to beat them a week later. The Aggies have a narrow path, but the opportunity is still there. San Diego State — 13% Chance Remaining Schedule vs. Utah State — 44.6% win probability @ Boise State — 5.0% win probability Résumé Lost to Oregon State, 66-14 Defeated Texas State, 31-29 What San Diego State Needs Beat Utah State on November 14. Pull off the upset of the season at Boise State on November 21. Get help from Fresno State against Texas State, Boise State against Oregon State, and Oregon State against Utah State. San Diego State’s path is arguably the most difficult of the four contenders. The Aztecs have to navigate a tough game against Utah State before traveling to Boise, where the odds give them just a 5% chance of winning. Their résumé has one significant advantage: the 31-29 victory over Texas State. That head-to-head win could become valuable if the two teams finish tied. Unfortunately, the 66-14 loss to Oregon State creates the opposite problem. If the Aztecs end up tied with the Beavers, that result could prove costly. The dream scenario: Beat Utah State, shock Boise State on the road, and watch Texas State and Oregon State both stumble. It’s a tall order, but the Aztecs have already shown they can beat one of the teams ahead of them. The Bottom Line
Team/ Record/ Title Game Odds/ Remaining Schedule Outlook/Key Game
Texas State/ 3-2/ 54%/ Both games as favorites/ vs. Fresno State, Nov. 14
Oregon State/ 3-2/ 17%/ Tough road test at Boise/ @ Boise State, Nov. 14
Utah State 3-2 16%/ Two road games/ @ San Diego State, Nov. 14
San Diego State/ 3-2/ 13%/ Only 5% win probability at Boise/ @ Boise State, Nov. 21
The odds are bigger in state of Texas. That walk-off field goal against Utah State looms large, while the Bobcats’ head-to-head victory over Oregon State gives them another important advantage. They’re favored in both remaining games and have the most favorable path of the four contenders.
November 14 is the pivot point of the entire race. Fresno State visits Texas State, while Oregon State travels to Boise. Those two games could dramatically reshape the Pac-12 standings in a single afternoon. If the Bobcats win and the Beavers lose, Texas State takes another major step toward Boise. If Fresno State pulls the upset and Oregon State knocks off the Broncos, the final week could get very interesting.
There’s also one lurking caveat for everyone chasing the championship game: Boise State has already beaten Utah State and Texas State, but still has Oregon State and San Diego State on its schedule. That matters. The Broncos aren’t just the presumptive host; they’re also a major obstacle for two of the four contenders.
Texas State and Utah State have already survived their meetings with Boise State, with a loss. Oregon State and San Diego State haven’t and a loss even against the Broncos makes their trip to the title that much harder. In a race where every result and every tiebreaker matters, the Broncos aren’t simply waiting at the finish line. They’re still capable of deciding who gets to join them.
